Race records and average number of starts

[BatataHead]

Hi racing folks, OTTB buyers are often advised to look at a horse’s race record for number of starts, gaps, etc as a heads up to past problems. What’s normal and what indicates time off for a possible issue? How many starts per year is typical and how far apart?

For instance, a horse who raced 30 times in 5 years. 1 start as a two yr old, 4 as a three yr old, 8 as a four yr old, 9 as a 5 yr old and 8 as a 6 year old, then retired. This was in 8 states (NY, IA, LA, WV, OH, KY, AR, MA).

[Texarkana]

The answers to these questions are not black and white.

If you look at “hard facts” the average starts per runner calculates to 6.20 starts per runner per year. But that in no way means 6 starts/year is “normal” or provides any sort of benchmark to evaluate a race record against. There is a lot of variation.

The single best thing you can do is ask the connections involved with the horse, but that’s not always practical.

The next best thing you can do is have someone knowledgeable about racing evaluate the entire race record on Equibase (not just the number of races). There are a lot of nuances that an experienced eye can pick up on: type of races, drops in class, prior knowledge of the trainer, gaps due to meets ending, etc.

Speaking in gross generalizations, long layoffs of several months between races are usually (not always) indicative of a problem at that moment in time- especially of the horse was running well or on a regular schedule prior to the layoff. Of course, that does not mean that the problem will still be a problem today. If the horse returned to his old “form” after the layoff, it’s probably a non issue.

But each horse is an individual and you really need to evaluate the animal in front of you, not the paper trail.

[Palm_Beach]

I rarely buy race horses younger than 4, and since I have my own farm, I don’t hesitate to give them time off when their form deteriorates. There is usually not a “problem,” but I find that the ones with lots of starts really benefit from 90 days of turnout. Usually lots of starts means the horse is sound and will stay sound. It’s the ones with few starts by age 4 that I am suspicious of.