Reading the racing tea leaves

[RooTheDay]

So I might be going to look at a 4yo OTTB as an eventing prospect soon. Yes, I’ll be supervised.

Since it’s not my horse (yet?), I feel a bit weird about posting its JC name or specific record (or even sex, hence “it”), but I know we have a lot of OTTB/racing-knowledgeable people here and I’m curious what insights, broadly, one can derive from the general shape of a record. I know we’ve had threads on this before but it’s been a while, so it feels like a good opportunity to revisit.

So: ~15 starts, raced 3x in the fall of the 2yo year, came back out in the spring of the 3yo year and raced roughly monthly until leaving the track this spring. One win and a few places, DFL in its first and last races, and otherwise usually in the bottom half. It seems to do well/best in really rotten conditions, which is appealing to me as an eventer. Career earnings of ~$40K.

Now, to me, I read this as: owners took it out the fall of the 2yo year with one terrible, one mediocre, and one place result. Gave it six months to grow up a bit and tried again as a 3yo. Had sufficient uneven occasional successes to keep running it (meaning that it was likely sound) through this spring, when horse was finally just like “hey, you know, I’m amiable but I’m not actually into this” and trainers retired it in favor of a possible sport horse career. (I have watched video of all the races and I believe the video supports this anthropomorphizing.)

That said, the above might be totally wrong because I know very little about baby racehorses!

Thoughts? Am I on the right track? Is there other (anonymizable) information from the record that’s useful to consider? Obviously interested in this specific horse, but also interested more broadly in the meta of How to Evaluate Baby Racehorse Records.

[NancyM]

Were they claiming races? Or allowance? What were the levels of competition? This would tell you how good they thought the horse was… May have been proved wrong, which isn’t too damning for what you are looking for, but it’s always interesting to look at how successful (valuable) they thought the horse was or was not. If they were all low level claiming races… that tells you something too. If they were high level maiden races, then a sudden drop in claiming price or drop into claiming from allowance, that tells you something too. Was the horse running on Lasix? Any sign of bleeding? May be an issue for an eventer, or not as the case may be, but the info will be there for you with an L on the form. A bad bleeder wouldn’t be one that maybe I’d be looking at as an eventer. Was he up front early, then suddenly dropped back to finish out of the money in his races? Was his last race a real disaster? Or was the whole career a bit lackluster? Maybe his race career won’t indicate problems for his future with you, but no harm in taking a look. Good luck, and happy shopping.

[OverandOnward]

Once I was looking at a nice OTTB for restarting. I remarked to my advisor expert who was versed in OTTB restarting, and said “You know, looking at his record, this horse seems remarkably unambitious.” She answered “That could change, with a career that he actually likes.”

[RooTheDay]

This is incredibly helpful, @NancyM–thank you!

@NancyM

Were they claiming races? Or allowance? What were the levels of competition?

Started off in $45K maiden claiming and maiden special weight classes as a 2yo. Headed pretty linearly south from there over the course of the career, and finished in $12.5K claiming.

@NancyM

If they were high level maiden races, then a sudden drop in claiming price or drop into claiming from allowance, that tells you something too.

That makes sense from the injury perspective, but it seems like they were just trying to find a level where it could win and refused to go below the $10K claimers mark.

@NancyM

Was the horse running on Lasix? Any sign of bleeding?

Very helpful–I saw the L on the form but didn’t quite process what it meant until now. Yes, every time except its first race. No notes or signs of bleeding in the video but not sure it’s something I’d be able to see very well.

@NancyM

Was he up front early, then suddenly dropped back to finish out of the money in his races? Was his last race a real disaster?

Usually pretty steady in position through the entire race, plus or minus one or two positions. There was one where there was a substantial drop but, on watching the video, it looked like it wasn’t a big fan of the traffic around a turn and then didn’t feel like catching up. Last race was, to borrow from the Drive-By Truckers, “started out way in the back and came back out the same.”

@OverandOnward

Once I was looking at a nice OTTB for restarting. I remarked to my advisor expert who was versed in OTTB restarting, and said “You know, looking at his record, this horse seems remarkably unambitious.” She answered “That could change, with a career that he actually likes.”

A wise woman! And a witty one.

For me, for this one, I’m not particularly worried about ambition. That can come later. For my first OTTB restart and my first 4yo, I am instead prioritizing As Tractable As Possible and As Sound As Possible!

[NancyM]

Here’s hoping that he enjoys jumping more then LOL!!! Good luck with him.

[moatsngoats]

This is super insightful, thanks for posting this!

[Red_Dust]

Meh, they all run on lasix. I have been told that the process of scoping can lead to enough reasons to get on Lasix.

There are definitely horses out there that do have no interest in running fast and don’t believe in putting themselves out.

A 4yo TB is on one hand a baby, but in TB terms an old hand. The hard part of breaking and sacking out has been done. He should have no issues around farm machinery and crowds.
he will need to learn other aspects of being a horse but that is the same for every young horse.

I wish you good luck. There is nothing quite like that ‘New Horse Smell’