Reading too much into racing stats ?

[CdnRider]

I’m curious about how much stats matter and what they really mean?

Obviously you can only look at them so much, and it would be similar to saying 'you ride the horse not the pedigree ’ when it comes to interpretation.

I’m on a bit of a search and came across two mares with significant track mileage.

I feel that this one http://www.pedigreequery.com/serving+time3 raced a fair amount of times racking up decent money over several years raced more thoughtfully and carefully

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8328467&registry=T&rbt=TB

however this one http://www.pedigreequery.com/mary+jeanene has more mileage racking up almost no money with inconsistent breaks in between was raced without a plan.

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8592293&registry=T

Does this just have more to say about their connections vs the horse? But at some point how a horse is worked and cared for does matter.

A PPE will tell a lot more of their stories but based on the race records my gut says if I were to purchase one I’d chose the top one if all other things were equal.

Other thoughts from more the more educated and experienced?

[Willesdon]

I think that a “thoughtful and careful” race plan might encompass careful management of the animal in all areas of care. That might give you a better chance at a sound horse without long term problems in their new job.

[HeyJealousy]

I would keep in mind when looking through PP’s that sometimes horses will have a gap in their records simply because there wasn’t a race for them. Maybe they’re a specific condition that doesn’t fill easily, or a track that has their condition closes for the summer, or something like that. Just from briefly glancing at the second mare’s record it looks like she runs every winter until Feb/Mar or so and then takes a break until summer. That to me indicates it’s a track/race not having the condition she needed…similar to maybe when a turf specialist takes a long break every winter because there aren’t any turf races at the track where his trainer is located.

Now lots of long random gaps in the record might concern me…but with a horse who ran as long as that mare did, I am more concerned what she did in the last year or so of her career. Her record looks pretty consistent to me in 2015 and 2016.

[Texarkana]

At cursory glance:

These horses were running on very different circuits, with different purse structures. Both horses have changed hands many times in their careers, which is completely normal for horses at their level. But it is impossible to make sweeping statements about their management over the courses of their careers when they’ve both been in more barns than I can count on one hand.

Serving Time (I really like Gilded Time, btw) started off on the Kentucky/Indiana circuit, where she was earning much more money because purses are higher there-- it’s a more competitive racing circuit. She was claimed away to Texas/Oklahoma, where she began to drop in class, eventually ending up in Manitoba.

Mary Jeanene has been on the west coast her entire career. She has been running mostly in the PNW and on the west coast fair circuit, where purses are MUCH smaller. She earned less money because she has been running in races that pay less money. For example, the “stakes” race she placed in only had a purse of $3K, where as the maiden claiming race Serving Time won had a purse of $18K. I can’t speak to the gaps, but I wouldn’t lose too much sleep over them. A couple of the more recent ones that caught my eye were completely logical- they were between the end of the Portland Meadows meet and the summer fairs. There was no racing happening unless they took her out of state.

Evaluate the horse in front of you, do a PPE if you are worried, etc. etc. The race record can sometimes give you insight, but the most important thing is the horse in front of you… because all things are never equal. Good luck!

[bornfreenowexpensive]

Agree with TEX. You are reading too much into them. For example, yes there are gaps in the 2nd horse’s record…but many could be explained. A break after the first race as a two year old almost never bothers me. Other breaks could be track closed or change of owners. Or she could have run out of conditions (races she is qualified to run)…or any number of other reasons. Basically…unless you really do some research, you cannot tell anything from the gaps as there can be some very legitimate reasons for them. Some you can find out with research and others you cannot. And even a horse without gaps may have been injected and run tnto the ground without a break.

But with 53 starts…if her legs are pretty clean…i would not be scared off from the few gaps in her race record.

All that said…I personally like the pedigree on the first horse a bit more. But I would care more about the individual horse in front of me over all else.

[judybigredpony]

@Texarkana

At cursory glance:

These horses were running on very different circuits, with different purse structures. Both horses have changed hands many times in their careers, which is completely normal for horses at their level. But it is impossible to make sweeping statements about their management over the courses of their careers when they’ve both been in more barns than I can count on one hand.

Serving Time (I really like Gilded Time, btw) started off on the Kentucky/Indiana circuit, where she was earning much more money because purses are higher there-- it’s a more competitive racing circuit. She was claimed away to Texas/Oklahoma, where she began to drop in class, eventually ending up in Manitoba.

Mary Jeanene has been on the west coast her entire career. She has been running mostly in the PNW and on the west coast fair circuit, where purses are MUCH smaller. She earned less money because she has been running in races that pay less money. For example, the “stakes” race she placed in only had a purse of $3K, where as the maiden claiming race Serving Time won had a purse of $18K. I can’t speak to the gaps, but I wouldn’t lose too much sleep over them. A couple of the more recent ones that caught my eye were completely logical- they were between the end of the Portland Meadows meet and the summer fairs. There was no racing happening unless they took her out of state.

Evaluate the horse in front of you, do a PPE if you are worried, etc. etc. The race record can sometimes give you insight, but the most important thing is the horse in front of you… because all things are never equal. Good luck!

Completely agree with this well researched information…its pretty much with what I came up with…when they ran at meets they did run consistently…and often with horses with that many starts at those levels they may not have gotten in…had to wait for race secretary to write an overbite race or for new condition book…

[melula]

I’m not great a pedigrees, but the first raced 15 times, won a third of the races and is now retired. Seems offish to retire a winning horse.

If the second horse is sound after so many races, she may stay sound forever.

[Texarkana]

@melula

I’m not great a pedigrees, but the first raced 15 times, won a third of the races and is now retired. Seems offish to retire a winning horse.

If the second horse is sound after so many races, she may stay sound forever.

This is incorrect. I understand you likely saw it clicking on the Pedigree Query link, but you always need to confirm race records with Equibase, since PQ is user updated. Serving Time has a record of 42-9-5-2 with $114,952 in earnings. She is also not retired (or at least hasn’t been for long); she raced earlier this month in a 6F waiver claiming race at Assiniboia Downs and finished last.

You can not make any certainties about the current soundness of horses based on race record alone.

[melula]

@Texarkana

This is incorrect. I understand you likely saw it clicking on the Pedigree Query link, but you always need to confirm race records with Equibase, since PQ is user updated. Serving Time has a record of 42-9-5-2 with $114,952 in earnings. She is also not retired (or at least hasn’t been for long); she raced earlier this month in a 6F waiver claiming race at Assiniboia Downs and finished last.

You can not make any certainties about the current soundness of horses based on race record alone.

Thanks! I appreciate the tactful education.

[Etoile]

Also related, you have to look the conditions of the races. Those ‘stakes’ at Portland for the second horse were basically sham races (2 furlongs & most of the field were old broodmares brought back into training and ‘owned’ by Portland) in order to have some interesting wagers.

Just another thing to take into consideration

[Hey_Mickey]

Agree with the above statements, a lot of good info but would like to add that Mary Jeanene has (in my eyes) the better pedigree for sport- I tend to take into account the dam line more so then the sire lines-just in my experience galloping and paying attention to horses I like and researching their pedigrees and finding the commonalities, it all comes down to the dam sire lines for me.

I like the dam sire line, its athletic and good minded- Arch, Kris S, Roberto…
Also I never mind getting on a Flatter, they seem to have good dispositions.I like to see AP Indy in the 2nd gen anywhere.
She’s a definitely dirt bred type which sometimes tends to lead to just a little more “movement” then a turf bred.

It would be interesting to see pics of both

Also, to add, Serving Time has a recent-ish breeze and its a reasonable time, a touch slow, for that distance, if that means anything to you.

[bornfreenowexpensive]

I do like Serving Time…she is more my type. Both look like nice girls.

[drsmcc]

The second mare has a pedigree that, I think, suggests she may have preferred turf and distance. Yet her races were dirt sprints. Her “stakes placed” race was at a mere 2F (one quarter mile) this is not an ordinary Thoroughbred distance in the first place, except for some very early 2 yo races. I find it hard to be critical of a horse who never had a chance at what may have been its best distance. But in fairness to the mare’s connections, you can only run in the races the Racing Secretary writes. (Also I only looked at the distances of some of her races.) And the tracks the mare ran on, pretty much have no turf. (GGF does.)

Both mares have been able to knock out a lot of races. In my experience if such horses are sound enough to pass a PPE after their racing career, they are usually bullet proof for HJ or eventing.

Pick the horse you like better, and go with that.

BTW I loved Dumaani, I bred a mare to him. He had a nice disposition, was gorgeous, and was very correct. He was not a very successful stallion however.