Congratulations! I’m due a couple of weeks before you with #2. With #1, I rode right up until I had her, but by the end it was just hacking because that’s what felt comfortable. I ended up with a C-section, so had to wait 6 weeks for a surgical recovery but didn’t have any of the bladder or girl-parts related complications.
I agree with lmlacross that, for me at least, being physically ready ended up being the most minor issue. I was exhausted (sigh… having already had one and knowing how are it is at the beginning, I sort of wish I could fast-forward #2 to toddlerhood; I’m just not a baby person), like REALLY exhausted, and it felt like my baby needed me constantly, so it was really hard to get away from the house even if I had people ready and willing to watch her. If you are breastfeeding, getting away can be really tricky for a while. If you are a great milk producer, it might be easier because you can nurse and pump back-to-back, then leave the house with a bottle waiting for the next feeding. But if you need a few hours between feedings for your own supply to return, which I did, it was kind of like (1) nurse baby (2) RUN out of house with a 1.5-2 hour clock ticking, (3) blaze through 30 minute ride and get phone call as you are getting off, with screaming baby in background, “Please come home, she’s hungry again.”
It can just be trickier than you expect, even if you have people to help, to disengage yourself from your child for long enough to get to the barn and ride. When I could get a couple of hours to myself, sometimes I wanted to exercise, sometimes I wanted to ride, and sometimes I just wanted to eat in peace or sleep.
I think the important thing is to not put too much pressure on yourself or set pre-baby goals about when you’ll be back at a competition. There will be enough stress in your life that you can’t control without adding stresses that you can opt out of. Just see how it goes, and if you find yourself settling into a rhythm where finding time to ride regularly is fun rather than stressful, then you might be doing your first event back this fall. But if you discover that just quietly hacking your horse on the days you can make it to the barn, and not committing yourself to a 4-5 day a week serious riding schedule, is what works best for you, then allow yourself to be that rider for a while.