Santa Anita- do you think somethings up?

[frugalannie]

Great primer, Sonny’s Mom. Thank you.

[Palm_Beach]

@SonnysMom

I would guess (hope) that whatever database they track the horse deaths in there are fields for trainer and therefore that data can be gathered. However to really assess that data there is likely other data that needs to be merged into that database.

So if Trainer A on average has 25 horses in training per day 365 days a year and has 4 horses that break down/euthanized every year on average that is different statistic than Trainer B who has 10 horse in training for just the Fingerlakes meet and averages 2 horses euthanized every year on average. Trainer B has less deaths per year but a MUCH higher percentage of his horses in training died compared to Trainer A. There may need to be a way to compare number of death per training days or per starts or some other baseline.

I am going to preface this with I know NOTHING about racing. However I can see a potential difference in mortality stats on a trainer that obtains a lot of their horses in low level claiming races where they may not have that horses full xrays and all of his vet treatment history available. They may be more likely to unknowingly inherit an issue caused by other trainers or just lack of available information.

Compare that to a Bob Baffert who primary runs stakes horses who have come through high end sales so have lots of x-rays available before they start to race. Then they spend the majority of their racing life with one trainer who has either their whole vet history or at least the overwhelming majority of that history. Even if they switch to a different trainer my guess is that the vet history and treatment history is better documented and more likely to transfer to the new trainer/owner.

The trainers that primarily train stakes horses may be more likely to have owners that can afford to have a PET scan, bone scan , MRI or ultrasound if the horse takes two funky steps rather than an owner that the horse really needs to be lame or longer term NQR before advanced diagnostics would be considered.

Comparing different trainers based out of different tracks and different footing may not be possible if one of the track footings is contributing to breakdowns. So even if you use a baseline of number of breakdowns per training days across the country if a particular track has a higher incidence of breakdowns per training days then comparing trainers from that track to another track may not give the whole picture.

Straight up comparing the number of deaths per year per trainer likely is not as straight forward as it seems on the surface.

Disclaimer: My husband does data mining and data evaluation for a pharmaceutical company so I have a little bit of insight from talking to him on how much can go into comparing evaluating complicated data points.

You actually did a good job. If I had a better brain, I would have majored in statistics. Loved it in college, but the math quickly went over my head. But yes, the number of horses and number of starts a trainer has is important. The same with tracks - a track with 2500 horses training over it will have more deaths than a place with 250 horses stabled there.

[SonnysMom]

@Palm Beach

You actually did a good job. If I had a better brain, I would have majored in statistics. Loved it in college, but the math quickly went over my head. But yes, the number of horses and number of starts a trainer has is important. The same with tracks - a track with 2500 horses training over it will have more deaths than a place with 250 horses stabled there.

Oddly enough I really HATE math, algebra, Math, Geometry, MaTH, statistics, calculus, MATH. Did I say I hate math? Funny thing is I have been known to issue millions of dollars in a week but I hate MATH. Reading and reading contracts and insurance contracts is more my thing.

I was part of the era that New Math was en vogue and then it wasn’t. Therefore I was part of the change over to one method and then back again but never learned either method well. I never learned my times tables- well okay not at all. I mentally freeze when put on the spot about adding, subtractracting, multiplying and overthink it. But I can glance at my change and know when it is correct. I issue millions of dollars each year but I heavily rely on an adding machine (I hate calculators).
But I am comfortable with the concepts behind the math so can figure out the high level picture. I tend to be a bit of Jack of all Trades and Master of None.

[mommy_peanut]

Prince Lucky seems to have luck on his side.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/237557/surgery-considered-successful-for-injured-prince-lucky

[skydy]

https://www.npr.org/2019/12/19/790023248/prosecutors-no-evidence-of-crime-or-animal-cruelty-after-rash-of-horse-deaths

[skydy]

Peta loses. https://www.npr.org/2019/12/19/790023248/prosecutors-no-evidence-of-crime-or-animal-cruelty-after-rash-of-horse-deaths

[Mara]

Santa Anita has postponed the start of December racing until the 28th due to weather. Wonder if Stronach Group still isn’t confident that the track surface will handle moisture past a certain, controlled point?

[mommy_peanut]

Reported…

[Laurierace]

reported

[Where_sMyWhite]

Good job!

No on track fatalities at the Santa Anita Fall Meet.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/244345/no-on-track-equine-fatalities-at-santa-anita-fall-meet

16 day meet, on fatalities during racing from 1,100 starts. No fatalities during morning works during the course of the meet.

Sounds like oth changes in medication policies and a strong voided-claim rule have also contributed as well as an overall cultural change. :applause:

There was one catastrophic injury in a stable accident.

No on-track equine deaths since June 21.