Should the Desert Circuit be cancelled? Or are you going?

This is the model you want to point to?

"New Zealand suffered its worst economic slump since the Great Depression in the second quarter as a strict nationwide lockdown to combat the coronavirus brought the country to a standstill.

Gross domestic product plunged 12.2% from the first quarter, Statistics New Zealand said Thursday in Wellington. That’s the biggest three-month contraction since quarterly records began in 1977. Economists forecast a 12.5% decline. From a year earlier, the economy shrank 12.4%, the most recorded in comparable official data dating back to 1955.

New Zealand is going through a sharper but shorter economic shock than it experienced during the depression, when GDP fell 5.3% in 1931 and a further 7.1% in 1932, according to academic research. Nor is the Covid slump as bad as initially feared. The South Pacific nation initially succeeded in eliminating community spread of the virus, allowing it to emerge early from lockdown, and indicators suggest growth surged in the third quarter as consumers went on a spending spree.

However, the real pain may still lie ahead. The border remains closed to foreigners, crippling the tourism industry, and the end of the government’s wage subsidy is expected to see unemployment rise."

The worst for New Zealand may still lie ahead?

I am all for protecting the people most vulnerable. But as oreo_mom stated, if there is nothing to even come back to after we return to a sense of normalcy, then what was the point?

And to bring this back something resembling a horse related topic… if the economy suffers the long-term effects I am afraid we are already approaching, a vast majority of us will no longer be able to afford to even own a horse, let alone feed our families and keep roofs over our heads.

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Um FYI - millions of people dying will have a significant impact on the economy.

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Update from my nurse neighbor - ER wait times this week 14 hours. Chairs set outside to wait due to COVID patients on ventilators in all ER rooms.
Makes me sad to miss the opening of WEC but, there are more important things than horse shows.

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How many people died in New Zealand? The are the metric that matters more than the economy

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Yikes.

Is this near Ocala?

THIS IS THE END GAME, JUST NOT BEING A DICK :roll_eyes:

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In NZ we’ve had 25 deaths from Covid. We currently have no community transmission.

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It helps if you use more up to date information…

In the September 2020 quarter:

  • New Zealand economy increased 14.0 percent
  • service industries rose 11.1 percent
  • goods-producing industries rose 26.0 percent
  • primary industries were up 4.6 percent
  • GDP per capita rose 13.8 percent
  • real gross national disposable income was up 13.9 percent
  • annual GDP declined in the year to September 2020 by 2.2 percent.

Largest quarterly rise in New Zealand economy on record

Economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), was up 14.0 percent in the September 2020 quarter. This is the largest quarterly increase in GDP on record. On an annual basis, GDP declined 2.2 percent over the year ended September 2020. This indicates that the strong growth in the September 2020 quarter was not enough to fully make up for the economic impact of COVID-19 and the measures taken to contain it.

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I’m sure this is true in some parts of the country. Anecdotally, I can report that in Southern California, the horse business is going gangbusters. It’s a sellers market right now. The TB rescue I tried to buy a horse from (he didn’t vet) told me “they’re flying off the shelves.” Nor is there any horse to lease, full or half. Everyone is WFH and because schedules are more flexible, they all have time to ride. Trainers are busier than ever and imports are very strong.

My trainer teaches a lot of kids and she has tons of new riders. Since there are no soccer teams or gymnastics, everyone wants to take lessons. Right now she is looking for horses for four riders.

The majority of the economic fallout of the pandemic has fallen on the restaurant and service sectors. Not a ton of horse owners there, as it is so expensive in an urban area with no pasture board. Most people can WFH and coming to the barn and riding is a little slice of normalcy.

Did I mention that Sunday’s LA Times had four pages of obituaries?

ETA: Riverside County has the highest number of cases per capita of any county in CA.

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That’s the V shaped recovery we were promised if we flattened the curve, but we didn’t.

Also, welcome to COTH, Hawkstone!

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25 people dead and a net 2.2% decline which may yet be/have been surpassed since September? I call that a resounding win.

Meanwhile over 381,000 people have died in the USA and armed insurrectionists are attacking the capitol.

Hmmmm. Yeah, this is working - let’s do more of this, because we want to go to horse shows.

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US GDP fell 32.9%

So ya, I’ll take the New Zealand model

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Yes in Ocala

That’s pretty scary.

Terrifying.

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Prayers.

Here one hospital has just reached ICU capacity. This is the most dire our local situation has been so far. Very worrisome

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Thank you for this. Short term pain and economic hardship, quick recovery, few deaths and long-term disabilities. NZ is definitely a Covid success story and shows what can be achieved with a unified, national approach, and a population that is willing to put the greater good ahead of their own convenience.

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NZ has done an incredible job, and for their country I think they did the right thing.
They are a much smaller country than the US, and I would think that being an island gives them tremendous control over a much smaller number of travelers coming in and out.
What is right or will work the best in the long run I don’t know. I do watch deaths per 100,000 and the US has always had numbers within the range of some European countries with tighter restrictions, but not as tight as China or NZ.
I know that just watching people in my part of the country was illuminating. We had a stay at home order through the end of March and through April. By mid April, I saw the hardware store parking lot packed. I haven’t seen much like it. I started seeing people venturing out more and more, and having gatherings in their homes. I think now it would be even harder. In April not many in my area had the virus or even knew someone who had. It was very mysterious. Now, people know a lot of people who have AND many people have become convinced that they’d be fine if they got it, because so-and-so who is in poor health did just great. Now obviously, no one knows how they’ll do. All we can do is guess.
It is a hard situation for everyone, and there is still really no clear end in sight. It looks like it’s just going to be a virus that we have to live with from now on, and many people are pushing back against restrictions. I have no idea as I go back and forth on it in my own head, but I don’t necessarily think that it should be dismissed as horribly selfish people who just don’t care about anyone else. I think some people want to prioritize people getting to live normally again over saving every possible life. Honestly, I don’t want to get the virus but I also think that this can easily become a quality of life discussion. Most people don’t want to go on like this forever.
While we have vaccines now (which I am so excited about) something like 40 percent of nurses in LA aren’t getting it right now. Who knows what percentage of the population will get it, and a lot of people that are under 50 or so and healthy just don’t think COVID is one of the biggest risks they face day to day.
Personally, I wouldn’t go to the show out of concern that if I fell I’d end up waiting for ages at the ER, and maybe prevent someone critical from getting timely care. I do think, though, that no one is ever going to say, “It’s totally safe-go back to normal.” We know it’s a risk and it’s about judging what’s an acceptable risk for you, considering partially your risk tolerance. Some people are far more risk tolerant than others. That’s just the nature of things. Some decisions are more risky than others. It would be far riskier to take your 68 year old diabetic and overweight male groom than to take a healthy 22 year old. That said, there have been young people who haven’t survived or had terrible complications - but statistically they’re at greater risk doing many other things.

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So… It’s not just your risk, but what effect you might have on the community. Either the community close to the horse show (when you’re coming in from somewhere else and thing that 14 days is just too long for you to quarrantine because, of course!, you’re fine), or your community back home (when you’re back from the show with all your memories and ribbons, and, oh, COVID). Because of course! your feel fine, so why isolate?

It’s all just so infuriating.

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Do you mean they are choosing not to get vaccinated?