Statistic gathering of Rider Deaths - help fill in the blanks

tracking injuries and fatalities

I think this is a great idea. The Steeplechase circuit is now doing just that for the chase horses. The vet on the track is responsible for recording who falls, the conditions, horses who needed treatments, die, sustained injuries and even has to report horses who ran slow/appeared to have trouble but didn’t actually fall , etc. This info is reported to a central secretary who then disseminates it to all the other vets involved in the circiut. It is useful information for both statistical analysis and tracking “repeat offenders”…

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“the increasing carnage”

My personal observations do not support this. There is no increase that I can see in watching sport horse deaths internationally for almost 10 years now. The numbers have not increased to my observation, but internet communication about certain horse sports, including eventing, certainly has. Unfortunately when you compare sports to sports there is not really a big change in the numbers from the last nine years or so, so the view that eventing is getting worse to MY OBSERVATION is without merit. Raw numbers simply do not support this view. Worldwide it’s been 7-10 every year I’ve been looking. And it’s the same pretty much for every other non racing sport, the numbers remain about the same with the exception as I noted for western sports which went up due (I think)to the new western horse sports introduced.

But again, I caution, you really need to do the proper research to avoid skew. For instance, if there is 1 death per 100, that percentage is 1%, per 1,000, .01, per 10,000 - .001, and so on. If the death per thousand was .01 in say, 1955, and remained at that same rate from 1955 to 2005, and did not change, then how could one say the courses are causing it. The courses have changed dramatically in 50 years. But if the death rate did not, then the argument that there has been “increasing carnage” has absolutely no statistical base in fact. Not saying this is true – but just pointing it out the statistical impossiblity of blaming a particular aspect of the sport, such as course change. In fact, given the growth of the sport and increasing numbers of horses and riders and competitions in the last 50 years, an unchanged rate such as the example could actually be evidence of the success of safety measures in action.

One would certainly wish (and it goes without saying) that there would be a zero death rate of course and that is of course the goal, but again, accidents happen, and deaths attributed to the horse’s body can’t be used to blame the events. Or shouldn’t be. Roping horses die of broken necks when they get tangled in ropes directly due to human error. Nobody blames the rodeo. But events get blamed when horses die of heart attacks!

Stats don’t lie but internet bulletin boards are choked with them.

The lalala comment – very disrespectful. I have had 4 decades of experience with sport and race horses and have had a horse die under me (twice). How dare you intimate I want to stick my head in the sand. On the contrary. If you want change, you have to prove it’s necessary, with reason and facts presented carefully and logically – not browbeat people. If I had gone to my state legislature and kicked down doors and pounded my fist on the table we never would have gotten one of the first Equine Activity laws passed in the nation.

We all have opinions but I try not to disrespect other posters’. I try to word my posts carefully to avoid hurting other people’s feelings or copying someone’s every word and responding ad naseum to every point. Who has time for that, I would rather be in the barn.

If you are afraid to event, by all means, do not. If you are not absolutely confident and well schooled in what you are doing, do not go out into the ring, on the course, or down the trail or out of your own backyard with your horse and make him do something you fear. That’s not my advice, that’s a standard in the horse world. Doing anything without confidence is a great way to get somebody hurt. You can’t be afraid to jump a horse, and continue to jump safely. But you know, one of the things I like about eventing is the challenges. It’s not the same eight fences arranged in a different way. It’s not level ground, it’s got a hill or a drop or a bump that I need to THINK about how to approach and conquer. Life is sort of like that too. There are hills and bumps, and it’s not always a smooth path to a pretty ramped oxer, but sometimes a bit more of a ride. Where’s the fun in always being unchallenged, untested, and boringly safe? Life is urgent, we’re not given tomorrow and today is a gift we have to use to the best of our ability. I’m not trying to talk you back into eventing, I’m just saying that’s why I do it.

[QUOTE=eqsiu;3079556]
The ones I’m aware of-
2 horses at Badminton '07 -one was impaled, the other from cardiac issues I think
1 at Rolex '07- euthanized post injury
1 at Jersey Fresh '07- aneurism?
1 at FHP CCI**- fall?
1 at a BN pony club rally in '06 (not strictly in the same vein, but still a horse death)- aneurism
2 at Red Hills '08 -both cardiac?
1 at ROlex '98- fall[/QUOTE]

And there were 2 at Popular Place in March 2006 (http://www.equestriannews.com/cgi-box/csNews/csNews.cgi?database=USAEventing.db&command=viewone&id=381&op=t)

“Ann Glaus’ Crestwood Michigan and Sinead Halpin’s Tommy II.”

[QUOTE=eqsiu;3079556]
The ones I’m aware of-
2 horses at Badminton '07 -one was impaled, the other from cardiac issues I think
1 at Rolex '07- euthanized post injury
1 at Jersey Fresh '07- aneurism?
1 at FHP CCI**- fall?
1 at a BN pony club rally in '06 (not strictly in the same vein, but still a horse death)- aneurism
2 at Red Hills '08 -both cardiac?
1 at ROlex '98- fall[/QUOTE]

The Native ridden by David O’Connor, collapsed at the Windmill pond at Red Hills on March 8, 2003…heart attack. (http://www.eventingetc.com/reports/report_red_hillls%2B03.htm)

Time for a Change.

“When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause and effect relationships are not fully established scientifically. In this context the proponent of an activity, rather than the public, should bear the burden of proof. The process of applying the precautionary principle must be open, informed and democratic and must include potentially affected parties. It must also involve an examination of the full range of alternatives, including no action.” - Wingspread Statement on the Precautionary Principle, Jan. 1998

According to the precautionary principle (used in Environmental Health issues), I think the USEA is obliged to make courses safer NOW. The number of casualities seen last year is unnacceptable. If data were calculated to show any percent, I think that the value of human/horse life and health trumps statistics, and we, as a community, can take a subjective opinion and say, “something is wrong”. People often look to science for answers in times like these, and I agree, look to the data. However, don’t forget that science, at its very best, is the product and process of human inference, imagination, and creativity. It employs empirical evidence yes, but the interpretation of evidence is ALWAYS, on some level, subject to cultural and invidual values, beliefs, and attitudes. It is a socially and culturally embedded process, and in the microculture of eventing, it not outside scientific reasoning to look for explanations as to “why is XC no longer safe”, instead of starting two steps back and seeing “unsafe versus safe” needs to still be determined by the data. Lets just say we need a change and demand the USEA deal with it. I’m all for research to show us the way in that agenda…

I’m actually not one for being oversafe. I ride young horses, I realize there is risk inherent in life, moreover, in enjoying life. BUT, The death and casualty toll makes eventing seem like an extreme sport, like dirt biking, instead of being a tradition of horesmanship and excellence through versatility. To me, preserving the latter is more important. Not to diss on the extreme sports, but we are preparing teams for the Olympics, not the X-games.

Kildonan Tug :cry:

Virginia Horse Trials Nov. 2006

-gillian

Back to riders…

I only skimmed through, so apologies if anyone above mentioned this, but there was the French rider Amelie Cohen who sadly passed at Fontainebleu in 2007.

It was covered extensively at the now defunct/ under redesign (?) eventing blog here:

http://eventing-blog.com/2007/03/14/amelie-cohen-eventer-and-veterinarian-tragically-lost-at-fontainbleu-france-on-march-11-2007.aspx

and they also posted some “analysis” of rotational falls and the types of falls that caused the most injuries here:

http://eventing-blog.com/2007/03/15/rotational-falls--inevitable-in-eventing.aspx

It refers to research undertaken in the UK in 1999-2000 about rotational falls (like Darren’s) and how that came to develop the frangible pin. At the bottom of that post there are summaries of the FEI findings over different types of fences and links to the FEI reports. They are a bit out of date now, and I didn’t check to see if the links still work. Plus, of course, it only covers FEI, but interesting nonetheless.

This is a sad topic, but one that I applaud you for addressing.

Erik Dierks’ horse, Lenamore’s Dreamer, at the FHP Ocala II Winter Horse Trials in February 2007. Humanely destroyed on February 17 at the competition. It appears she sustained an injury to her pastern on the flat during the final strides before the water jump.

William Booth died competing N at Senator Bell in 2004.

Retreadeventer-

I totally agree with what you said- it appears that blame is an easier emotion and run by emotion, then fixing things. In order to fix, you must approach things rationally. I have said this in other ways before, but…You done said that lot’s better! :wink:

IS there an actually difference? How much has Eventing increased its numbers over the past 20 years??

To me, it looks like a project that some math person could take on. In another thread, I thought creating stats on finishes, using the normal things that a show publishes even, could then create a line where a CD might get put under “probabtion” and have someone look at their courses with them to figure out the issues. Just using a normal bell curve design.

But, NOTHING that happened this past weekend, except perhaps Darrens horse, had to do with the course. However, this course seemed to fall well outside of what we would consider a nice, normal bell curve.

I think that keeping records of each horse, like I believe endurance does, might help find problems before they happen. Would I know if my prelim horse has an isse? No I don’t. I don’t know enough, nor is it something that I think of. BUT…Perhaps I should.

One thing eventing seems to do is kind of hide within itself. The hunter/jumper world, I am sure with a lot of public outcry both for and against, will be using thermography. As I understand it, if there appears to be a “hot” area, it’s noted and the horse followed, along with rider and trainer. This is to catch “poling” and other before hidden things that might happen before a horse enters a ring.

In NO way do I think eventers would do anything like that- but, at prelim and above, what about the briefest of vet checks at the FL? Just a heart rate, not even a temp? Might it catch some horses that have issues? I can imagine those that say…No way, it cannot work. BUT…if the H/J folks have the time, shouldn’t we? Would it have saved the 2 horses this weekend? No way to know. I guess a study would have to be done… maybe it’s time for that study.

[QUOTE=annikak;3082448]
Retreadeventer-

I totally agree with what you said- it appears that blame is an easier emotion and run by emotion, then fixing things. In order to fix, you must approach things rationally. I have said this in other ways before, but…You done said that lot’s better! :wink:

IS there an actually difference? How much has Eventing increased its numbers over the past 20 years??

To me, it looks like a project that some math person could take on. /QUOTE]

An epidemiologist or biostatistician. I have offered to help on past threads and when the safety committee was being formed. So far, no takers.

[QUOTE=TB or not TB?;3078333]
Yes, thank you. :yes: I’ve been researching for about 6 hours and coming up with hardly any information. The FEI safety reports, while thoroughly padded with miscellaneous content that addresses few concerns, seem to have holes in its data.[/QUOTE]

And precisely what are you doing about it?

What makes you think that superficial “research” in anonymity on a bulletin board deos anything at all to improve rider and/or horse safety?

The facts are readily available if you actually need them. But you might be gob-smacked to learn that the best way of getting them isn’t trawling around on google or asking folks on a BB

And I’m asking all the same, because this has gone on long enough, and no one is doing anything about it.

Why do you think nothing has happened? Did you miss all the reviews and changes to course design, fitness inspection, etc etc etc?

Are you totally ignorant of the fact that EVERY serious accident is the subject of a thorough investigation?

IMO this thread is totally and utterly pointless and of no worth whatsoever.

FACT: Eventing is a high risk sport. Those that do it undertake it well aware of that. Some brave and competent riders have been injured and paid the ultimate penalty in losing their lives undertaking what they choose to do because they love their sport and are highly competitive.

30 riders died in the UK alone between 1993 and 2007 and there are regular major safety reviews.

Every time there’s a serious accident there’s a review and lessons learnt and if you honestly think that eventing hasn’t changed at all because of lessons learnt, then you really need to get out more instead of trawling for facts on google and by asking on a bulletin board.

2006 in NJ - training level horse died - not same caliber, but still a stat

I don’t remember the horse, but a broken leg after a fall @ the water @ Flora Lea - left him euthanized in the field.

If there are reviews and people learn, why still build jumps that encourage rotational falls? If we have improved fitness and vet checks, why all the heart attacks on course?

They just made a pretty big change within 5 years to the way endurance is run at the highest levels. Have they had enough time to figure out the best way to condition the horses for the new types of stress caused by the constant collecting and then galloping to make speed? Because XC changed from a test of bravery and endurance to a test of bravery and handiness.

Have they spoken to vets about the new test? Have they hooked horses up to heart monitors and run some of these courses to see how the stress has changed? Have they studied the mental fatigue riders may have from the constant set ups? Have they had physicists and safety apparel people watch videos of falls?

Yeah- documenting deaths- recording them and having them on file is one thing. But learning is another. Probably every other sport is getting safer for participants. No- it will never be 100% safe. But it does not seem to need to be this hazardous for horses and riders.

Hell if Nascar can change then anyone can! Remember when Earnhardt died…that prompted the HANS (Head And Neck System) to be implemented. Perhaps the eventing world needs to focus on modifying the XC to what is a bit safer more straight forward galloping type course.

IFG…I just saw that on the other thread- and that’s the bad thing abt the BB…things can get somewhat lost, and if no one quotes or lets the “idea” carry on, it gets lost.

So. Do you think that one could get meaningful data out of such a study? It’s been a long time since stats- but…if I remember correctly, it should be able to be done.

I have said it before, and I will say it again- NASCAR- these guys, whomever they are, did something right. It’s time to fix rather then just vent. AND- if we are perceived as whiny brats, then we shall get ignored. Yes, the squeaky wheel does get the grease, but what it really needs is to hit the body shop;)

So…WHAT went wrong this past weekend? As much as we are focusing on the CD, and maybe we should, it appears that only 1 jump caused serious issues- the 2 horses from what I understand, had cardiac issues.

Does anyone know what the stats are for Steeplechase horses at the end of a race? The fatalities of horses? I never hear abt them, but then again, it’s not an area that I really look at. Do they have the same %- NOT incidents, but % as eventing? I would hazard to guess that that is more dangerous then XC…

Annikak,

I think that it would be very useful to get statistics on the rates of accidents and horse deaths over time so that we can better understand whether the apparently high number of recent incidents is expected. That is, has the number of accidents increased because there are more competitors these days and riders compete at more events or is the number increasing over and above the increase expected due to an increased number of starts?

Several folks have argued that the larger number of rider accidents and horse deaths is due to more competitors. For example, there used to be fewer riders at Advanced, and the competition season was shorter (in the 1980’s no one went south to compete in the winter). Obtaining rates per start, would answer whether this is a plausible explanation.

Whether a study could answer questions regarding specific risks (such as course design) is tougher to determine. There are a small number of accidents and deaths, so the power to answer specific questions would be limited unless there was a clear aggregation of events with one or two specific risk factors. Best analogy here is that DES (diethylstilbeterol) was linked to reproductive cancer based on 8 cases. The key was that the mothers of ALL 8 cases had used the medication.

In any case, I don’t think that an analysis of the data would be very expensive, especially if volunteers were to plan the study, collect the data, and analyze it. So, I would say it is a lot of bang for the buck and very worthwhile.

First, who peed in your cornflakes? :eek::eek::eek: Never did I say that eventing hasn’t changed or improved over the years, and honestly, I don’t understand why this thread offends you so much.

The facts actually aren’t that easy to find, contrary to popular belief. FEI statistics only cover events at * level or above, and not all FEI sanctioned events even report their statistics back to the FEI, so there are holes in their data as it is.

Furthermore, while many accidents are investigated on a case-by-case basis, there are almost no studies that look at overriding trends in rider deaths. The rotational fall is a pretty basic element that has been identified, but there are so many more similarities that it’s mind boggling that no one has identified them before.

And here’s what I plan to do about it: use the scientific process to actually STUDY accidents and identify factors and trends that contribute. Once these are identified, I plan to create a multi-pronged approach on how to counteract some of those common factors. For instance, everyone focuses on how to prevent rotational falls; while this is admirable, I intend to look at why rotational falls are statistically more fatal now than they used to be (according to the FEI’s 2006 safety report). As has been identified, the speed at which jumps is approached is often a contributing factor. I intend to calculate the physics equation that will tell us exactly what range of speeds are lethal in a rotational fall.

The final step will be creating a presentation for the USEA, USEF, and FEI, as well as publishing the findings of the experiment in notable eventing related media.

Oh, and here’s why I need COTHers - because as has already been pointed out, not all the deaths are reported to the FEI and many studies use ONLY their statistics as data. When I have the deceased’s name, I can find out what happened to him or her. Many of the names mentioned on this thread were not looked at by the FEI. So yeah, I think I WILL continue to utilize this forum, but thanks for your concern.

Oh, and as a last note, unlike notable members of the “Safety Committee,” I don’t have a dog in this fight. An impartial observer is a must in true science.

Amber - che brava ragazza!!!

I agree. This is basic scientific method stuff.

  1. Make an observation
  2. brainstorm ideas - (where we are right now)
  3. develop a hypothesis
  4. go to the literature, review ideas
  5. refine hypothesis
  6. design an experiment
  7. do experiments
  8. analyse results
  9. write theory
  10. make recommendations, take remedial action, etc.

I do believe this is beyond the scope of a BB. Full proposals need to be written, submitted to a formal competetive process subject to peer review and fully funded!

I also believe the first step is a retrospective statistical analysis encompassing course records and personal interviews needs to performed first. This information can then be used to decided where to focus future efforts.

It sounds like we have identified a number of factors (i.e. course design, jump type, training strategies, horse physiology) that all play into this. The hypotheses developed from these observations will require a number of different approaches, which we are already discussing.

As I mentioned before, I’m writing these ideas to the USEA and offering my services however I can. I do know a fair number of epidemiologists, including one who is also a stellar equine vet, and several horse physiologists. I’m going to encourage the USEA to find funding for people experienced in evaluating these issues to address this problem.

[QUOTE=TB or not TB?;3083535]
First, who peed in your cornflakes? :eek::eek::eek: Never did I say that eventing hasn’t changed or improved over the years, .[/QUOTE]

So what does this mean in your neck of the woods?

Furthermore, while many accidents are investigated on a case-by-case basis, there are almost no studies that look at overriding trends in rider deaths.
So you don’t know about this one then?

http://www.horseandhound.co.uk/competitionnews/article.php?aid=120205

There’s been a heck of a lot of studies about rider deaths and particularly resultant from a rotational fall. Not just in eventing but also in National Hunt Jump Racing. It may well be they’ve not reached you over there but for sure there’s been plenty.