Stud Fees: Pioneer of the Nile vs. American Pharoah

[SnicklefritzG]

Last I checked, Pioneer of the Nile’s stud fee was $60k. I’ve also read several reports that suggest American Pharoah’s initial stud fee will be quite high. Who knows how much of it is wild speculation at this point, but still the topic is an intriguing one.

Wouldn’t people be more interested in breeding to the stallion that produced the Triple Crown winner? Or is there a sexiness or ego factor that goes into breeding to the actual TC horse? Until it becomes obvious what American Pharoah can produce, wouldn’t make more sense to breed to his sire? Or are most of the folks sending mares there not really worried about the money?

[Where_sMyWhite]

Not a stud fee thought but I was thinking this morning… at this point, nice if AP races again, nice if he wins again… I want to see what he throws in the shed. He has such a pleasant personality (or so it appears) and nice running movement.

[rascalpony]

Wouldn’t people be more interested in breeding to the stallion that produced the Triple Crown winner?

Yes; the mantra is “if you like the son, breed the sire”. Or something to that effect, but you get the point. Pioneerof the Nile’s stud fee is certain to rise in 2016. He is a proven freshman sire, and had progeny on the Triple Crown trail in 2014 and 2015 (his first two crops). I think I read somewhere that his stud fee is expected to rise to somewhere in the 80-100k range, whereas American Pharoah is expected to start somewhere around 60-75k per breeding.

He has such a pleasant personality (or so it appears) and nice running movement.

Pioneerof the Nile apparently does as well The stallion manager mentioned somewhere that it was rare to find a stallion you could pet and hug and kind of do whatever to, but Pioneerof the Nile apparently has a good disposition. Baffert mentioned he had the same long stride as well. His son clearly inherited his traits, magnified!

[danceronice]

Well, if I had one of my horse’s half sisters so I had the same female family as AP’s dam (Lucky has a few wandering around, but even if I had one I don’t have $60k) I’d breed to Pioneerofthe Nile. If had a completely different female family I’d want AP (assuming I won Powerball and had THAT kind of money) since while PotN is nice, nothing else he’s sired is quite like AP and I’d bet based on experience the temper comes from the mare’s side (I assumed my horse was just freakish sensible but it appears to be genetic as AP has the same level-headed approach to everything.)

[Texarkana]

Despite the fact that American Pharoah’s female family is about as weak as they come, I’d be really surprised if his initial fee is under $100k. Being a TC winner pretty much trumps all as a prospective sire.

[Jonskin]

My semi-educated guess is PoN doubles to $120k and AP opens at $100k. One thing I like about this particular line is versatility. Quality at all distances and surfaces. Would’ve loved to have seen what AP could do on the weeds.

[SnicklefritzG]

[QUOTE=Texarkana;8256786]
Despite the fact that American Pharoah’s female family is about as weak as they come, I’d be really surprised if his initial fee is under $100k. Being a TC winner pretty much trumps all as a prospective sire.[/QUOTE]

What makes you say it is weak? Not trying to argue, just curious.

If it was really that bad then how did he end up winning the Triple Crown?

[SPRINGBORO]

SnicklefritzG, his breeding on a catalog page is very light. Traditionally, the commercial market focuses very heavily on the first 3 dams.
So, 1st dam Littleprincessemma has now outdone herself in the breeding shed. A Triple Crown winner! Her only other foal is a 2011 ridgling name Xixixi by Maimonides who won a couple of races at two. Her first two breedings were to very modest stallions, and then Pioneerof the Nile after that. She was barren in 2013 and 2014, and I’m digging still to find out her most recent foals.

2nd dam was the speed ball Exclusive Rosette, who won a restricted race in Florida and also set a new course recrod at Atlantic City for 5 furlongs. She produced a couple of stakes horses, including the G3 winning Misty Rosette, who was was 3rd in the G1 Darley Test S. Nice stuff, but again, it’s pretty light as far as consistent graded black type which you typically see in stallion prospects.

3rd dam Zetta Jet (now we get the Hooper breeding) only produced Exclusive Rosette as far as black type, but interestingly she also had another speed ball sprinter in Ciucchettone, who tied a track record in Sacramento at 4 1/2 furlongs. This distaff definitely shows an affinity for sprinting, something which was mentioned A LOT during the triple crown coverage.

So, a very modest producing distaff and an up and coming sire. I don’t think I would breed to him in the beginning (ha, like that’s even an option to me!) until I start to see what his foals are like.

[SPRINGBORO]

addition: Littleprincessemma had a full brother to American Pharoah named Irish Pharoah for 2015.

[SPRINGBORO]

addition: Now I understand why Littleprincessemma was bred initially to J Be K and Maimonides… they were Zayat horses with Baffert.

http://www.hbpa.org/NewsDisplay.asp?STORYID=10139

[rascalpony]

I can’t find anything on 2013, but Littleprincessemma did have a 2014 foal: a bay filly by Pioneerof the Nile. She has a Facebook account and everything lol. I was a little amused by that. Counting their eggs before they’ve hatched?

[SPRINGBORO]

I stand corrected, rascal… I misread. I thought it was barren in 2014, but you’re right that it’s an unnamed filly.

Also, Littleprincessemma sold for a staggering $250K! as a yearling with this “light” pedigree and by Yankee Gentleman. I gotta check, but that has to be one of his first crops. But then again, what do I know? Less and less every day, it appears!

[SPRINGBORO]

hmmm… what i said, only better.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/87582/pedigree-analysis-american-pharoah

[SPRINGBORO]

an even better analysis

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/Kentucky_Derby_2015_American_Pharoah_Pedigree_Profile_123#

[danceronice]

[QUOTE=SPRINGBORO;8257330]

3rd dam Zetta Jet (now we get the Hooper breeding) only produced Exclusive Rosette as far as black type, but interestingly she also had another speed ball sprinter in Ciucchettone, who tied a track record in Sacramento at 4 1/2 furlongs. This distaff definitely shows an affinity for sprinting, something which was mentioned A LOT during the triple crown coverage.

.[/QUOTE]

That whole line back produces LOTS of sprinters (my own horse, whose second dam is Queen Zetta’s full sister Miami Queen, was pretty much cooked by 6f-biggest win was 5f on grass) which isn’t surprising when you look at Olympia, who was definitely into short distances. He outsprinted a Quarter Horse at two. But clearly that female family under PotN produced something outstanding, which is why my choice of AP versus PotN would depend on the mare. Nothing that female family has produced is anything like AP–but otoh PotN hasn’t sired anything remotely resembling him, either. That particular combo seems to have something going for it.

[Texarkana]

[QUOTE=SnicklefritzG;8257138]
What makes you say it is weak? Not trying to argue, just curious.

If it was really that bad then how did he end up winning the Triple Crown?[/QUOTE]

Pretty much what Springboro said-- for consignment purposes, horses are evaluated on their “catalog page” which gives information on their sire and the first few dams. The belief is that good performing and good producing dams are the most likely to produce good runners, but of course, there are exceptions to everything.

Littleprincessemma was unplaced in her brief racing career, and by a very average sire. American Pharoah is one of her first foals, so it will be interesting to see if her foals continue to WAY outperform expectations.

The second dam, Exclusive Rosette, has some accolades that look better on paper than they actually were: she has stakes a win, in restricted company, in her only stakes appearance. She has performance in allowance races, but at lower tier tracks for very small purses. If her connections had chosen to run her on a more competitive circuit, she would have been outclassed in the claiming ranks. She did outproduce herself with some nice stakes horses, but nothing that would suggest the next Triple Crown winner was coming from her family! She was also by far the best offspring of the third dam, Zetta Jet, who was another non-winner on the track.

I’m not knocking his breeding at all. I’m just saying that on paper, it is nothing spectacular that would suggest TRIPLE CROWN WINNER. But horses can’t read their pedigrees and love to prove even the most knowledgeable of breeders wrong. From what I understand, it was readily apparent that he was something special early on. And now his dam has gone from looking quite average on paper to looking like a rockstar on paper.

[Real_Rush]

[QUOTE=danceronice;8256720]
Well, if I had one of my horse’s half sisters so I had the same female family as AP’s dam (Lucky has a few wandering around, but even if I had one I don’t have $60k) I’d breed to Pioneerofthe Nile.[/QUOTE]

I do! I do! http://www.pedigreequery.com/move+on2 I would breed to PotN in a heartbeat as well; 'course, I’d have to win the lottery first too. Hmm, or maybe I could figure out how to contact the Zayats and see if they’d be interested in borrowing her for a couple years… (she ain’t getting any younger, unfortunately) That would be totally awesome to own the dam of a horse like AP. Moira (as I call her) only had 3 starts as a 2yo though, because she’s been a non-sweater her whole life. Between me and her previous owner who bought her off the track, we’ve tried just about every “remedy” out there, to no avail. So, she has a nice fan to chill out in front of and a big water trough to splash around in.

And about AP’s tail female line, while fairly “light” close-up, there are good bloodlines farther back. Zetta Jet’s dam, Queen Zetta, was sired by Crozier, who was second in the '65 Derby. And Queen Zetta’s 2nd dam was by Hoop Jr, who actually won the Derby in '45. (yeah, I know, that far back the breeding doesn’t mean as much, but still…)

[danceronice]

I’d offer to go halfsies with you but I don’t even have half of what PotN’s stud fee is likely to be! (I wish I could find Lucky’s little sister She Sure Can Cope by Dance the Ballado–that would be another one who’d probably cross nicely on PotN. Funny, going by PQ Lucky ONLY has sisters and he’s the only Copenqueen foal to earn more than four figures. If you had asked me which of my horses’ ancestors would contribute to producing the next Triple Crown winner this was not the side of their families I would have picked, but its the one both Lucky and Old OTTB come from…)

[cai]

There was a cute article about PotN’s quirks in the breeding shed in the NYT a few months ago: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/06/sports/turn-ons-peppermints-cool-breezes-turn-offs-mares-who-move-too-fast.html?_r=0