TB Pedigree spin-off: high %AGR vs. single ancestor vs. 4th gen ancestors

[SnicklefritzG]

I’ve read through many of the more recent TB pedigree threads on COTH as well as some on the pedigre query forum and have some questions…

I’ve heard different comments in different threads about what to look for (examples below)

1. “Look for the 4th generation being packed with good horses for sport”

2. Look for high %AGR for top sport horse producing horses

3. “Eventing horses need Bay Ronald”

I’ve seen quite a few horses with Bay Ronald, but if the %AGR is low would that make his influence not statistically significant? Or is he one of those horses where a single appearance is still influential through one of his sons?

At what point does %AGR become statistically significant?

In an older pedigree, it seems like it would be easier to find the 4th generation packed,but with a younger one what do you look at?

[SnicklefritzG]

See below for an example for Courageous Comet.
Princequillo, teddy, and La Troienne appear further down, but the AGR is between 3 and 4%. Is that considered insignificant? Or are there some horses who only need to appear once to transmit their influence for their DNA?

NASRULLAH 4x5 15.23%
NEARCO 4x5 10.94%
MUMTAZ BEGUM 5x5 8.59%
PHAROS 5x6 6.05%*
BLENHEIM2 5x6 5.47%
NATIVE DANCER 5x6 5.47%
MAHMOUD 7x7 4.98%
MUMTAZ MAHAL 5x6 4.69%*
DISCOVERY 6x6 4.30%
BULL DOG 7x7 4.20%
WAR ADMIRAL 6x6 4.00%
TEDDY 6x6 3.71%*
PRINCEQUILLO 6x6 3.61%
LA TROIENNE 7x7 3.32%

[Virginia_Horse_Mom]

[QUOTE=SnicklefritzG;8816120]
I’ve read through many of the more recent TB pedigree threads on COTH as well as some on the pedigre query forum and have some questions…

I’ve heard different comments in different threads about what to look for (examples below)

1. “Look for the 4th generation being packed with good horses for sport”

2. Look for high %AGR for top sport horse producing horses

3. “Eventing horses need Bay Ronald”

I’ve seen quite a few horses with Bay Ronald, but if the %AGR is low would that make his influence not statistically significant? Or is he one of those horses where a single appearance is still influential through one of his sons?

At what point does %AGR become statistically significant?

In an older pedigree, it seems like it would be easier to find the 4th generation packed,but with a younger one what do you look at?[/QUOTE]

Thanks for framing these questions in a clear way -

I know I for one, get excited when looking at pedigrees with older names closer up, because it seems more straightforward to zero in on certain horses I know are desirable, and just guesstimate influence As more significant. Not technical… I’m not nearly as sophisticated as some of the folks who speak up here with great analysis.

As for Bay Ronald, I wanted to include a link on him from the TB heritage site that Vineyridge referenced when I was asking about Pocahantas.

http://www.tbheritage.com/Portraits/BayRonald.html

What I find quite interesting, reading through it, were two mares in particular. Not surprising - I love learning more about important TB mares.

1. Black Dutchess, Bay Ronald’s dam. A producer of 8 winners, and a Galopin granddaughter. I’m curious if her other descendants were relevant for sport horse breeding.

2. Rondeau, Bay Ronald’s daughter, out of a Bend Or mare. Rondeau was Teddy’s dam. Interesting to see these three stallion names - all known to be great for sport horse breeding - connected so closely through this one mare. I wonder if that female line is still alive and well?

I included her pedigree as well - its interesting to look at the doubled Macaroni in particular. And if I am looking at the info in Pedigree Query the correct way… She goes back to the Alexander mare… But I might be incorrect.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/rondeau

Hopefully Vineyridge will look at this thread and share something interesting

[SnicklefritzG]

^^ and Teddy was the sire of La Troienne!

[vineyridge]

Blandford’s dam Blanche was a tail female descendant of Black Duchess, whose dam, Black Corrie, is the founder of FF 3-o, the most recent “new” branch of that family. Tapit traces to Black Duchess in tail female, but it isn’t one of the MOST productive families today.

IMO, one of the reasons Blandford was so successful as a sire is that he was kin, and rather close kin, to almost all the great TB lines of his day and the generation after.
http://www.bloodlines.net/TB/Families/Family3o.htm

Yes, Rondeau goes back to The Alexander Mare of 1790–FF 2-o, IIRC.

[Virginia_Horse_Mom]

http://www.tbheritage.com/Portraits/Blandford.html

Wanted to contribute this link to the discussion. Now I am going to read through it

[vineyridge]

BTW, Canterbury Pilgrim was also one of the great mares in TB History.

So what do you think of Blandford?

[Virginia_Horse_Mom]

THe write up on the TB Heritage site is awesome. The story of him getting trampled as a foal, etc. and I love the way they worked so much history into his story - the gifting of bloodstock by William Hall - Walker to improve British cavalry horses in WW1, and the foundation of the Irish National Stud down the road was really interesting. And Blandford going back to stand stud in England due to Irish politics, Eamon De Valera and taxes on horses sent to England.

It’s very interesting to put different pieces together… Blenheim in particular. And the fact that he was out of Malva, and she and Blandford worked out as youngsters, just a neat detail. Blenheim’s influence is something I definitely haven’t focused on enough - for whatever reason I always immediately think of Whirlaway first in relation to him. Mentally connecting Mahmoud and also to Nasrullah via Mumtaz Begum - very interesting.

Mumtaz Begum goes on the list of amazing mares for sure.

The fact that Blandford was also over at the knees and had soundness issues is another interesting detail - given all the chat mentioning Bay Ronald, and St. Simon.

And Canterbury Pilgrim? The write up on her is as worthwhile to read as the one on Blandford. I think it’s neat her dam line is traceable all the way back to a Darley Arabian mare. And interesting that her son Chaucer was sire of both Scapa Flow and Selene. And Selene definitely makes the list of incredible mares.

[vineyridge]

All of the TB Heritage writeups are worth reading. I bitched at them a year or so ago about not having a Nearco portrait, and they suggested that I do one. But their portraits are so packed with detail that one would have to have access to a Racing library to do a comparable job. One of their founders is Anne Peters, a TB breeding consultant, who used to write breeding history and analysis articles for The Bloodhorse.

IMO, Mumtaz Begum’s first and second dams are even more amazing.

[Virginia_Horse_Mom]

You totally should do a portrait for them on Nearco. Their website is excellent! And I was wondering who Anne Peters was.

And yes… After reading through it, Mumtaz Mahal and Lady JosePhine are amazing stories. Interesting WWII history in the write up on Mumtaz Mahal.

Lady Josephine was also dam of Lady Juror… By Son in Law.

And Lady Juror was dam of Fair Trial. It’s interesting to go back and look at his pedigree and only focus on mares…

That led me to go back and look at Fair Task again. What a nice pedigree. and contemplate matching my mare with Mystic Replica to get Fair Task 5x4. It would be a fun horse to enjoy as a keeper, even if it never did anything spectacular.

[SnicklefritzG]

Just bumping this back up to see if done one can comment on the original post 1

[zipperfoot]

Interesting thread.

I think I know the answer here, but just to confirm: What’s %AGR?

TIA!

[SnicklefritzG]

Additive Genetic Relationship

[QUOTE=zipperfoot;8817782]
Interesting thread.

I think I know the answer here, but just to confirm: What’s %AGR?

TIA![/QUOTE]

[Virginia_Horse_Mom]

Additive Genetic Relationship—AGR%

“The number is basically the same as the blood %, but it takes into account inbred relatives included further back in the pedigree and weighs them into the calculation. A greatexample of inbreeding isReal Quiet. You can take a look at the AGR & Blood % of Dr. Fager. The AGR of Dr. Fager is 21.94% and the Blood % is 18.75. The reason that the AGR is a bit higher is due to inbreeding in Dr. Fager’s pedigree. He’s doubled up on Bull Dog which means he probably has a higher concentration of his genes and the fact that Real Quiet is doubled up on Dr. Fager concentrates this genetic material a bit more. So the AGR number takes into consideration extra factors. All the AGR numbers get boiled down into the Coefficient of Inbreeding number.”

Here’s a link to where I pulled the AGR definition from… It originally came from all breed pedigree

http://twhknobcreekstud.com/?page_id=1030

Anyway, this is a handy rundown concerning common terms when reading pedigrees… I’m admittedly very imprecise when looking at things and commenting, and use the terms “line bred” and “sex balanced line breeding” casually… Rather than “cross duplicates.” I subconsciously probably avoid saying “inbreeding” - but thats what it is. Just negative connotations.

I specifically pay a lot of attention to cross duplicates… It’s just easy to spot. I specifically get intrigued by known excellent horses with cross duplicates in the first 5 generations, and then go about looking into the cross duplicated horse and trying to learn more about them. Just a fun little “quick and dirty” way of educating myself.

As for AGR% and some more technical methods of evaluating pedigrees - I’m curious as to what people’s favorite websites and tools are for running reports.

[zipperfoot]

Thanks! Pretty much what I thought. I use it (via mental calculation) when I evaluate pedigrees, usually looking for Herod line ancestors. Trying in a small way to perpetuate those lines. We have a 2-year-old filly that has Tourbillon 7 times.

[vineyridge]

If you subscribe to pedigreequery, they have some really good tools concerning breeding. Also on Sport Horse Show and Breed database here:
http://sporthorse-data.com/
there are some tools at the bottom of the page showing % of ancestors in several different ancestor number pedigrees.

[Virginia_Horse_Mom]

[QUOTE=SnicklefritzG;8816352]
See below for an example for Courageous Comet.
Princequillo, teddy, and La Troienne appear further down, but the AGR is between 3 and 4%. Is that considered insignificant? Or are there some horses who only need to appear once to transmit their influence for their DNA?

NASRULLAH 4x5 15.23%
NEARCO 4x5 10.94%
MUMTAZ BEGUM 5x5 8.59%
PHAROS 5x6 6.05%*
BLENHEIM2 5x6 5.47%
NATIVE DANCER 5x6 5.47%
MAHMOUD 7x7 4.98%
MUMTAZ MAHAL 5x6 4.69%*
DISCOVERY 6x6 4.30%
BULL DOG 7x7 4.20%
WAR ADMIRAL 6x6 4.00%
TEDDY 6x6 3.71%*
PRINCEQUILLO 6x6 3.61%
LA TROIENNE 7x7 3.32%[/QUOTE]

So just for fun, I applied my “quick and dirty” methods to Courageous Comet (or not so quick once you start just combing through pedigrees, eyeballing things, and taking notes. Oh well - I enjoy doing this with a cup of coffee occasionally).

First, here’s his 5 gen pedigree, along with detail through 12 gens that allows me to note his cross duplicated ancestors…

http://www.sporthorse-data.com/d?z=--YMB6&d=Courageous+comet&x=29&y=10
Nasrullah
Mumtaz Begum
Discovery
Nearco
War Admiral

All cross duplicated in his first 12 generations, and obviously Nasrullah being cross duplicated causes his sire and dam to be cross duplicated.

So by a quick and dirty analysis…

I’d say Nasrullah’s genetic influence is your major factor, just like the AGR % says.
Nearco is coming in via lines other than just Nasrullah on both sire and dam sides - Royal Charger, Nearctic and Mossborough. So his number makes sense too, but I wonder if it is underrepresented. I’d ignore Mumtaz Begums number, as Nasrullah accounts for her influence. I’m not saying shes not key… But her genes are coming in theough him. Same with Pharos, as Nearco accounts for his influence. After that, I would think Discovery and War Admiral are possibly more influential than their numbers reflect because of their cross duplication.

So, I then go and look at the 5 gen pedigree of each of these horses to note additional cross duplicates further back…

http://www.pedigreequery.com/nasrullah
Canterbury Pilgrim is 5x5

http://www.pedigreequery.com/nearco
St. Simon is both 4x4 and 5x5

http://www.pedigreequery.com/discovery
Bend Or 4x5, St. Simon 5x5

War Admiral had nothing in his first 5… So I looked further back
http://www.sporthorse-data.com/d?i=135632&z=--YMB6

St. Simon 5x6 and 7, Sanda 5x7, Hampton 5x8, Australian 5x6, Springfield 5x7

So at the end of all this slicing and dicing… What to conclude? Smarter people than me can speak to that.

I’m intrigued by the duplication of Canterbury Pilgrim coming in via Nasrullah… Because I love these influential mares.

And, the sheer number of lines on both sides all going back to St. simon via horses who were cross duplicated in Courageous Comets pedigree, but who have St. Simon cross duplicated in their own pedigrees. That is interesting when you start really looking at it. I’m sure he’s everywhere in all Thoroughbred’s pedigrees if you look back far enough, but I wonder if his influence bubbles up more when it comes forward in such a systematic balanced way (I.e. via horses who were intentionally bred to cross duplicate him in their pedigrees, and then having multiple of those horses cross duplicated in a descendant’s pedigree). In particular, when you look at Nearco’s AGR number, then see how heavily St. Simon influences Nearco’s pedigree, I’d say he is not an irrelevant influence, despite being so far back.

[Virginia_Horse_Mom]

[QUOTE=vineyridge;8817898]
If you subscribe to pedigreequery, they have some really good tools concerning breeding. Also on Sport Horse Show and Breed database here:
http://sporthorse-data.com/
there are some tools at the bottom of the page showing % of ancestors in several different ancestor number pedigrees.[/QUOTE]

I am going to set up a subscription to pedigree query. I have tried with sport horse-data, but somehow they have my email but i never got a log in established… And it locks me out of finishing the process. Super annoying because I like that site. Maybe I should just call them and get it fixed.

[Virginia_Horse_Mom]

One more fun thing to share with folks interested in TB pedigrees. I first got into looking at horses and bloodlines and looking for patterns 25 yrs ago because of a coffee table book my Mom had at our old farm

https://www.amazon.com/Royal-Blood-Fifty-Classic-Thoroughbreds/dp/0939049635

The resources and websites available now - like TB Heritage - make it all much easier when looking for info. But if you love researching TBs, some of these Richard Stone Reeves books are real treasures. The artwork is exceptional.

[SnicklefritzG]

Here is another one

Influence
AGR

Nasrullah and princequillo are 5x5 and have a high AGR, so I would guess they have some influence that is not insignificant. Other names such Teddy are just under 4%, so my question is that an average amount and/or statistically insignificant? Eight Thirty is also in there but at a lower number.
(I left out things <1%)

I’m digging up examples for the sake of trying to understand how to interpret pedigrees this way,

---

MR PROSPECTOR 4x4 14.81%
BOLD RULER 4x5 12.96%
ROUND TABLE 5x5 8.94%
NASRULLAH 5x5 8.79%*
PRINCEQUILLO 5x5 8.50%
SIR GAYLORD 6x6 7.39%
NASHUA 6x6 7.32%
SOMETHINGROYAL 6x6 6.59%
PRINCE JOHN 6x7 6.59%
NEARCO 5x6 5.57%*
NATIVE DANCER 6x6 5.47%
TURN-TO 6x6 5.05%
BULL DOG 6x6 4.88%*
PRINCE ROSE 5x6 4.69%*
BULL LEA 6x7 4.49%
DISCOVERY 6x6 4.20%*
LITTLE HUT 6x6 4.20%
MUMTAZ BEGUM 6x6 4.00%*
TEDDY 6x7 3.91%*
TOM FOOL 6x7 3.56%
PRINCE BIO < 7x7 3.22%
COUNT FLEET 6x7 2.93%*
POLYNESIAN 6x7 2.93%*
BAHRAM 6x7 2.73%
SIR GALLAHAD3 < 7x7 2.69%*
MAHMOUD 6x7 2.54%*
BABY LEAGUE < 7x7 2.47%
ROMAN < 7x7 2.22%
BOIS ROUSSEL 7x7 1.56%*
AMERICAN FLAG 7x7 1.56%
WAR ADMIRAL < 7x7 1.46%
BUBBLING OVER < 7x71.37%*
MAN O WAR 7x7 1.17%*
EIGHT THIRTY < 7x7 1.17%
SIF < 7x7 1.17%
OWEN TUDOR < 7x7 1.07%