But you’d have to question could he get the job done given what we saw?
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I have no question. He has Azure, who won the 4 short at Bromont last year. He has Denim, who went to Boekelo. He has Jewelent. And he possibly has Quasi Cool, who will undoubtedly be back, though probably not on a Paris timeline.
That’s a hell of an arsenal for a reserve rider. Also someone who can spare a “standby” horse that may not get to compete without upsetting the trajectory of his career, so long as ownership agrees.
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I think the team will be:
Will Coleman
Boyd Martin
Tamra Smith
Tamie had an unfortunate series of events at K3DE this year, but if Mai Baum is sound, I truly think he is the only US horse that even has a shot at a medal. Will and Boyd are amazing riders, but I think Tamie is the only one who can beat the British riders squarely.
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I think it depends on if she gets MB out and has a successful run sometime soon.
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The team is more than horses. The human persons in the team must gell and be team players. Riders need to work with a huge number of support staff, who will often be new to each other, and swarms of officials in a really high stress atmosphere. Sometimes the best selection is an excellent human with a pretty good horse instead of an excellent horse with a so so human.
Part of the success of the British team is excellent support work behind the scenes. When the horses eventually arrive their stables are all set up, prepared to the last detail by the experienced forward crew. There are team relaxation areas set up for everyone to use, with drinks and snacks to hand, so people can rest and socialize. It builds camaraderie. At Tokyo, the British team farriers rest area came to be used by many other nations too. A lot of informal learning occured.
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I have experienced this, albeit very briefly.
When they come stateside, they all work together. I don’t know if they do that at home. But there is one heck of a support team.
There is a ton of camradarie among US riders, too. But I think it’s ingrained in our American nature to have a fierce independent streak.
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Since 2018, I think the true “team-tier” of U.S. riders has really narrowed down to a pretty obvious set of programs. There are a few more very good riders who I think will always have a horse or two in the conversation, but I really do think Coleman, Boyd, Liz, Caroline, & Tamie are operating in a different league now.
They have the right 1) business 2) riding/training skills to sustainably be on team USA for the next 10+ years. The riders in the top tier are very good at both. I don’t think they get enough credit for what they’ve built. I takes an incredible amount of business acumen/strategic thought on both the horse side and the business side to make team pursuits sustainable.
• Rider: rider talent, experience, results, industry respect, marketability, “brains”
• Operations: financial backing, facilities, staff, support system, overall infrastructure
• Pipeline: investment planning, sourcing connections, logistics, “eye”
I’m really excited about these guys. I think they’re world class and I think they have better horses & better business all the way around than we’ve ever had for US eventing. They have big personalities, as all successful people do, but they’ve all been on multiple teams together over the past 6-years.
And they’ve had more consistent success in those 6 years than we had in the previous 20. If some iteration of at least 2 of those 5 riders goes out for team USA, they’ve always finished on the podium at the big events.
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I’m wondering if Meghan O’Donoghue and Palm Crescent are aiming for an Olympic qualification since they’re going to Badminton. That would be super exciting! 
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I think this is a very astute set of observations. I’ve hesitated to post my own thoughts because while I feel like Will and Boyd are slam dunks for the Paris team (barring horses being horses), I don’t think there is a slam dunk for the third spot.
As a fan of US eventing, I want to see the US send a team that has a high likelihood of finishing in a strong position - and in my mind, that means sending pairs that, as part of their total package, are very highly likely to have clear cross country rounds. As with Pratoni, I don’t think we will go in as a favorite for a team medal, but I think we could finish on the podium if we are smart about who we send, and things don’t go according to hopes/plans for a few other nations (GB, GER, NZ, FRA).
I wish Mai Baum’s status was not a little “iffy” due to not being able to run the Kentucky 4* - if he had run KY and had a strong showing I think the third spot would go to Tamie without a doubt.
I think Liz certainly has the depth of string, but while she’s had international opportunities where she has contributed to US success, she has yet to deliver a big result. If she is named to a team spot, hopefully this will be her year.
And while Caroline and HSH Blake both seems young compared to the other options, their record together is impressive - will be interesting to see how they do in the 4*L at Carolina this weekend.
I also can’t ignore Lauren Nicholson and Bug although would be hard pressed to choose them over the others in contention.
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Why do you think that is?
Does he not have as good of dressage scores as the others? Is he not so great in the show jumping? He seems pretty good cross country.
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Lauren and Bug are a solid pair with a long and successful partnership. He’s 17 now so this is probably their last shot at a championship team. They are our current US 5* champions. They were one of the counted scores for the team podium in Pratoni. I think there’s a high likelihood they would get around the cross country clean though they tend to have a rail or two in show jumping more often than not. Maybe they are the right choice if it’s about the team finish (as I said in my post)? However, with only three competitors, I tend to think all the pairs named to the team will have been deemed to have individual podium potential as well.
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Thanks.
I’d like to see them on the team. He’s such a trier.
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Now that the dust has settled from KY, I think it would be positively bonkers to leave Mai Baum off the team provided he is still in top form.
Ya know, this is probably the most stacked we’ve been going into the games in quite awhile. We have Will, Boyd, and Liz with a slew of exciting advanced horses. We have a 5 star winning combo with Tamie and Mai Baum (maybe even two if On Cue gets back to top form). We have well-mounted veteran team riders like Phillip, Lauren, etc. We have some incredibly promising (and pretty darn experienced) younger riders, like Carolyn.
When you step back and consider the position we’re in, this is the best shot we’ve had in years. What a pool of talent!
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The Paris xc is flat. That will suit American riders.
I don’t see mai baum at Tryon.
With the US riders well positioned at Badminton I think you have to wait and see what happens there. OBviously Boyd is on the team. If Tsetserleg does well does he consider leaving him in England and taking him to the Olympics. Also, if Tiana or others have really good goes at Badminton do they become the third rider or traveling reserve, especially the riders that are based in England.
This is what the U.S. team would have done in the past- completely lose the plot due to recency bias.
I don’t think horse/rider combos should spontaneously be added to contention based on one result less than 3-months prior to the Olympics. You need a strong trendline to show evidence that a pair is consistently producing repeatable results over a least a full year (ideally 2+ years).
Boyd has two other horses that are much better suited to the Olympics. It’s just a different type of competition that needs a different type of horse. Will & Liz have three each that generally take up 60% of the top ten when they’re all competing at the same place, and have won/consistently podiumed at 4S & 4L on multiple of those. Their “bad performances” are high twenties dressage, less than 5 time, & a rail down.
The U.S. is starting to see success because our top-tier program has evolved into a real system. We need to stick to that system, and I think we will. IMO, it’s too late for somebody to come out of nowhere and make the team. We have enough strength at the top to avoid grasping at the shiny performance of the moment like we used to do.
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We also have to watch the out of sight, out of mind trend. These women that are based in England do have good records and against good competition on tough courses. Just because we don’t see them in the US doesn’t mean they are not doing good things. Keep in mind that events in the US have far fewer entries at the top levels than the events in the UK and EU.
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Tiana’s finishing scores just aren’t good enough yet. I do think Cosby Green is a future star for the U.S., but she doesn’t have the horse quality yet to really be a major championship contender. I would expect to start seeing her on nation’s cup teams very soon though, Boekelo is a strong possibility.
The top tier is far from impenetrable, it just takes some additional stepping stones before riders jump straight to championship teams, at least IMO.
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The most exciting thing about Boyd, Will, and Liz is that they each have multiple horses of nearly equivalent competitiveness. That just seems like a huge advantage when building a team, because horses are going to horse. You can keep the team intact with whatever injuries, setbacks, or flukes crop up over the next months. Plus they are all experienced in international team competition. When’s the last time we had that kind of depth of talent?
Last Olympic selection cycle, if you had said Phillip, Lauren, and Caroline were going to be our team, we’d all be in agreement that is a darn good team. Yet all 3 are just as well mounted as ever and aren’t even the “top” picks.
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as much as I love Thomas, I don’t think he is even being considered for Paris. I think he is at Badminton so Boyd could have a finish at all 5 5* in the world. He probably wants that on Thomas’s legacy too. His show jumping is just too iffy for a team anymore. And before someone says he cost us the gold at Pratoni, we wouldn’t have gotten the medal we did without his score in dressage. Boyd has two up and comers. with a better chance It might be a little early for Commando, but he did look great at Kentucky. I think I heard Boyd say something about taking those two to Luhmulen. Cross my fingers!
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