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The Derby Trail 2023 thread

Thanks for posting that race video.

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Newgate, the winner of the Bob Lewis, is out until summer with a hock injury.

Bummer…but at least it was not a result of being asked for too much too soon or result of a red hot stretch duel to decide dominance in an early Derby battle in his last race, the 4 horse BB Special.

Hoped the Derby Trail would be a little clearer by this point as the really competitive preps loom starting next weekend. Only thing obvious is BC having a very promising group of Classic quality youngsters and good for him.

The fillies who looked a cinch for the Oaks in the past few months, Wonder Wheel and Hoosier Philly finished on the board but seemed disinterested in fighting for it. Maybe they can bounce back. Wet Paint was spectacular but reserving judgement until I see her win or at least do well on a fast, dry track, something shes never experienced in her short career.

One thing that perked my interest was something that was not said. BB shipped a promising Justify colt to SA at Fairgrounds immediately before the Risen Star. SA was asked his strategy and said he had no idea. Interviewer pressed for more details, SA said “ Only had him in my barn for a day and a half. I don’t know”.

The talking heads reported the jockey had also been asked how he would ride the race on a colt he’d never been on or around and replied “ I don’t know”. Asked again, jockey repeated “I don’t know”. Talking heads remarked that was an unusual answer from both trainer and jockey. No crediting other trainer, no saying how nice the colt was. Nothing. Interesting.

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At last…couple of good races from good colts expected to do well amidst the carnage of beaten favorites.

Practical Move out west, out of TYs barn…where he’s been all his racing life, not a BB client. The heavily favored Hyjaz (sp?) answered the distance question and likely will aim elsewhere. Forte was heavily favored as well, but earned the hype. Looked the part too.

There were, of course, great efforts from lightly regarded colts without much of a resume but need to see another race against quality peers to hop on their bandwagon. Overall, pretty wide open KD field at this point

On the odd front, In the Gotham at Aqueduct, with 15 entries, a colt unseated his rider at the break and ran right in with the big field, moved to the rail at the head of the stretch and held it crossing the wire second…and held a much straighter line then some with a jockey.

Last week Red Route Run tortured every talking head and the race announcer…try saying it quickly. Fortunately for them, he didn’t figure in most of the calls or post race analysis.

Held a much straighter line than Irad Ortiz did on Forte. Had no effect on the result of the race, but why, oh why, did he have to cut in and impede Mage? One of these days he is going to get someone killed.

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I had to see that.

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The stallion Violence had a good day: Forte in Florida, Raising Cain in New York.

Ooops, Raise Cain, not Raising Cain

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I recently saw a sales ad for a spectacular Violence filly being transitioned to a sporthorse career. Just beautifully put together with a ton of presence. If I’d had the means for another, I’d have scooped her up in a second.

Definitely interested to see how his offspring do in their post-track careers as well as on the Derby Trail!

Old news now, but I believe that was Harlocap, who ran for Asmussen in the Risen Star and ran 6th.

Fort Warren was supposed to go to Brittany Russell, but was scratched out of the graded stakes race he was supposed to go in with her.

One question I wanted to ask here is what happens to the grooms that have been working with these horses for a year, who are transferring to new barns? I don’t imagine they “go with” the horse, right? Seeems like that might affect some of these horses in some manner?

So Tapit Trice: sure tried hard to lose the race. Broke slowly, did not get going, went super wide, but still won on raw talent. Should be interesting when he gets more experience.

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Is it just me, or does anyone else find it weird to see a horse (in this case Arabian Knight) referred to as “undefeated” when that horse’s career is comprised of all of two races? I suppose it was inevitable, with racing becoming secondary in importance to producing high dollar offspring. But it sounds silly.

Arabian Knight will not be starting in the Derby. As far as I can tell it’s not due to injury; the colt just isn’t making the sort of progress expected of a potential Derby starter.

Tapit Trice just, to me, seems more immature then just green. Sometimes looks awkward as do many big youngsters on the road to maturity, he’s still figuring out what he’s supposed to do. No doubt why TP and his owners are taking it slow at a somewhat softer prep race and aiming for the Bluegrass. He may not have been keen but he sure put the others away with little effort when he finally got somewhat interested.

He may need a bit more time but might be the best of the bunch come summer if not before.

my plan was to save Tapit Trice for the Belmont. I think he is more suited for that race.

It’s been 2-3 years since I wagered on any of the TC races though but I still have a good time looking at everybody, trying to figure out the puzzles of the races, etc.

The most fun I had last year? I skipped capping the Breeders Cup races, and went full bore on the Melbourne Cup. That was a good race. I really liked the horses in there, was supposed to be 24 but I think they ended up with 22 or so. There were some gorgeous pedigrees. A friend hit the $1 exacta for $600+…I like to save my small bankroll for races like this. There was such a lot of informatoin on the horses in that race, it was generally a lot easier to figure out than I thought it would be. So now, I’m hooked. I’ll be doing that one every year. !! I am looking for an NZ horse…they seem like nice ones. It was just darn fun learning all the pedigrees and backgrounds, and the wonderful fact that they were from 4 years old up to about 8 or 9…and still racing like they belonged.

You want to build fans for racing? …you don’t do that if they leave at the end of their 3 year old season to the breeding shed. (flightline, etc.)

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I sometimes compare racing to football. Two-year-old year is comparable to high school sport, 3-year-old year is college, the breeding game is professional. The way things are now, the actual racing is merely a prep to where the money actually is, which is breeding. Not fun for the fans, but that’s where the money is. Those that don’t make it are cut from the team.

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Many, if not most, fans benefit from increased access to legal wagering. Lower level tracks don’t even have much decent grandstand seating, just tv screens and betting machines. Thats where the other big chunk of the money is.

It looks like Japan will have an entry!

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Yeah, and in a year with few superstars dominating and lots of upsets in the prep races so far? Perhaps they have a legitimate shot, maybe their timing is right this year.

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Forte ran a terrific race in the Florida Derby–washy in the post parade, pretty far back early, took dirt, went very wide, and blasted by the others at the end.

Angel of Empire looked good in the Arkansas Derby.

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Actually had another commitment so didn’t watch the races yesterday, will watch back later today. Good to hear deserving favorites starting to emerge out of a crowded group.