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Triple Crown races 2024 - KY Derby (& Oaks) - Who's following?

Zedan has a better argument than he did before, but I doubt it’ll get him into the Derby this year.

He could get a judge to rule in his favor with the “irreparable harm” argument.

Possibly.
However, his horses never were banned from racing & earning Derby points, if he’d have switched trainers.
He had that option & chose not to take it.
Wonder if that will play into the equation at all.

Also… one has to wonder…
If he gets the injunction and his horse goes on to win the Derby, and then the court rules in favor of CD (would be after the Derby before they get to court), what then?
Disqualify his horse? Revoke winnings?
Sounds like a huge mess waiting to happen.

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It certainly does.

I think the fact that the horse just won a “win and you’re in” race (isn’t the Florida Derby one of those?) could help with the points issue but honestly, I wish this guy would just quit with the lawsuits. It seems as if his ego won’t allow any entity to say “no” to him.

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It seems as if his ego won’t allow any entity to say “no” to him.

Probably why he went to Baffert in the first place!

There are “win and you’re in” races for the Breeders Cup, but not for the KY Derby. The amount of points he would have won, had he been eligible to win them, would be enough to put him in the Derby. But to be technical about it, you have to get the points, not just win the race.

What does it say about the state of racing today that the trainer who won 2 Triple Crowns in three years (with the context of how long it has been between TC’s historically), won the KY Derby 6 times, who is in the racing hall of fame, has nonetheless made himself persona non grata at the Kentucky Derby with his chicanery.

I don’t follow racing closely, not for many years. So how did that guy accomplish all those things. Why is it only relatively recently that he’s being caught up. From this distance, the current situation reeks of cesspool to me.

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Different sport, but Lance Armstrong “won” seven Tours de France before he was nabbed for using drugs.

I hope Pharaoh was clean. Champion at two and three, raced 11 times over two years, a relatively long race record for recent times.

Not sure about Justify.

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Good point. And cycling was, and is, a cesspool of cheating.

Apparently the Armstrong meltdown pointed the way to cleaning up a lot of the doping – as doping was done at the time.

It’s been remarked that when a sport cleans up one against-rules performance-enhancement problem, the athletes just find other ways.

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Sierra Leone looked amazing in the Blue Grass:

This video has his pre-race “I won’t load” behavior. Given that nonsense, his race was even more impressive. Of course the question is, how will he handle the Kentucky Derby crowd insanity?

He seems to paddle a lot with his left front.

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Take a look at the Santa Anita Derby, particularly coming off the far turn. Young jock looking for his first major stakes win threading the needle between FD (having a red hot day))and MS, who were not about to help him out. Fanduel had their jockey cam on him and that hole was way tighter than it looked. That footage should be around somewhere…worth a look.

The homebred Stronghold went on to gut out a tough stretch drive and find more to win by a head. Rather satisfying to see him beat the very heavy favorite out of the leading trainer’s barn with honest fractions and no excuses.

Nice story…we know how those tend to end up. But, you never know. IMO that was a pretty impressive win. As was Sierra Leones despite his behavior however that creates doubts depending on his reaction to Derby Day chaos and maybe his post position. Then there’s Fierceness, liked his last race, who knows.

ETA. Sad to see Santa Anita just a shadow of its former self. Used to be a big deal day, not so much anymore. Not many fans along the rail, grandstands not packed, acres of empty parking lots. The whole lawsuit fiasco still making the news is not doing SA or the sport any good.

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Thanks. I thought the Florida Derby winner usually went to the Kentucky Derby, health permitting.

So it is effectively a “win and you’re in” race but they don’t call it that, like they do with Breeders Cup races. I understand that Churchill goes by derby points. Semantics, yes? :slightly_smiling_face:

I believe the “win and you’re in” races for the Breeders’ Cup carry more benefits than just entry into the race. You get entry fees paid to the BC, and I think you might get travel money. There is nothing comparable to that package deal with the Kentucky Derby. The winner of the FD or AD or SAD gets the points to qualify, but they are still bearing all expenses and aren’t in effect “sponsored” by Churchill Downs to ease their way into the race.

The 'Win and You’re In" races (as the BC calls some of their qualifying races) are something different. If you win one of those races, you have an automatic berth in your BC race–regardless of whether or not you wouldn’t otherwise qualify. A horse can win one of those races in July and sit out until the BC in Nov. if the owners so choose. They are already in the race.

The Florida Derby winner gets enough points to get into the Derby in theory–so far, that’s always been the case. But if by chance 20 other horses managed to accumulate more points than the FL Derby winner, then he wouldn’t be able to run. Winning the race does not confer an automatic spot in the Derby gate.

So not entirely semantics. There is an actual difference.

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The 'win and you’re in" BC horses get free entry, 10K in travel expenses, and 10k to the BC nominator (usually the breeder.)

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Thanks. I understand now. Does it happen often that the big race winners are bumped out of the Derby, assuming that they aren’t injured?

No. Although it’s not unusual for the big qualifiers not to run in the Derby (for any number of reasons.)

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Point standings

Timberlake is out.

No More Time is out with a condylar fracture.
https://paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/no-more-time-injured-during-workout-will-miss-kentucky-derby

Deterministic is “unlikely” to run.
https://paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/report-deterministic-unlikely-for-kentucky-derby-spot-opens-for-grand-mo-the-first

KO

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Hades is out.

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