Triple Crown races 2024 - KY Derby (& Oaks) - Who's following?

[OverandOnward]

Like the people who rarely come to church except at Christmas and Easter, at this point in life, I don’t really follow racing. Unless a general-interest hot racing topic is on COTH. EXCEPT for the Triple Crown & KY Oaks, for that I pay attention. (For no good reason but tradition.)

What/who are we looking for as Derby starters and potential winners?

Same for KY Oaks, which is not a TC race but very important?

Does any horse look like a possible to be a TC winner this year? Or is there no way to know at this point?

Any big issues, of any kind?

Thanks y’all for comments and pointers.

[ejm]

Not trying to change the subject, but just saw this flashback on Paulick Report today, the training record for 1946 Triple Crown winner Assault. Times have certainly changed.

ASSAULT’S TRAINING SCHEDULE BEFORE WINNING TRIPLE COWN in 1946:
April 1 – Shipped to Belmont Park
April 5 – 3 furlongs in :37
April 6 – 6 furlongs in 1:14
April 9 – First start of year; won 6-furlong Experimental Free Handicap in 1:12
April 12 – 4 furlongs in :48 2/5
April 14 – 3 furlongs in :35 1/5
April 15 – 1 mile in 1:43 4/5
April 18 – 1 mile in 1:41 2/5
April 20 – Second start; won 1 1/16 Wood Memorial in 1:46 3/5
April 23 – 3 furlongs in :39; shipped to Churchill Downs
April 30 – Finished 4th in 1 mile Derby Trial 1:40 1/5; muddy track
May 3 – 4 furlongs in :48
May 4 – Won 1 ¼ mile Kentucky Derby by 8 lengths* in 2:06 3/5; sloppy track
May 5 – Walked
May 6 – Shipped to Pimlico
May 8 – 3 furlongs in :40
May 9 – 1 mile in 1:45
May 11 – Won 1 3/16 Preakness by a neck in 2:01 2/5; fast track
May 12 – Shipped to Belmont
May 16 – 4 furlongs in :52
May 18 – 3 furlongs in :40
May 20 – 4 furlongs in :48
May 22 – 1 mile in 1:43 3/5
May 24 – 3 furlongs in :35
May 25 – 1 ¼ in 2:05
May 28 – 4 furlongs in :50
May 29 – 1 ½ in 2:32
June 1 – Won 1 /1/2 Belmont Stakes by 3 lengths in 2:30 4/5; fast track

---

• Assault still holds the longest winning margin of 8 lengths in KY Derby histo

https://paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/a-different-era-training-pattern-for-triple-crown-winner-assault?fbclid=IwAR3yv7ogyXoPmPPpr4fiEfYskwZqzn5N5iRIbu5L2LjuiPTmyfgTIiQR8Qs

[findeight]

Give this a bump….

Still a bit early with the most important prep races coming up. Seen some nice colts and really promising fillies but they still had a ways to go to dominate the competition or have not really be tested. We will see how the next couple of weeks goes.

Timberlake is an obvious choice and has more experience against a top field but nobody knows where these youngsters will reach their peak.

[mommy_peanut]

It’ll be a long shot & will definitely depend on how he races tomorrow (Jeff Ruby Steaks race) but I’ll be rooting for Seize the Grey since I have shares in him.
If he fails to do well enough to get into the starting gate for the Derby, I’ll wait to decide who I’m rooting for until the starters are announced.

[Maythehorsebewithme]

@mommy_peanut

t’ll be a long shot & will definitely depend on how he races tomorrow (Jeff Ruby Steaks race) but I’ll be rooting for Seize the Grey since I have shares in him.

He did get up for third so got some points. I thought he ran a bit oddly–was up close, then dropped back, then came on again a bit. Weird ride? Green?

[mommy_peanut]

@Maythehorsebewithme

He did get up for third so got some points. I thought he ran a bit oddly–was up close, then dropped back, then came on again a bit. Weird ride? Green?

Yep. He’s got 27 points now & is in 15th place for now. It probably won’t be enough to get in.
I was happy with his performance.

If you watch the head on, he got pinch & Nik had to take back hard to avoid clipping heels, which dropped him back a bit. He then swung him outside.
STG is known to react to the whip, so not sure if the bit of weaving in the stretch was from that, switching leads late or just being green. Heck could be a bit of everything.
I’m hopeful we’ll have a fun & productive summer/fall with him.

[Laurierace]

Having too much fun here in Wellington to follow the preps at all this year but are heading to the Florida Derby on Saturday. I have never been to any of the prep races before, this should be fun.

[skydy]

Congratulations to Repole and his homebred Fierceness.

Fierceness Dominates Florida Derby

[skydy]

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/275930/uae-derby-score-propels-forever-young-into-ky-derby

[skydy]

Muth, Amir Zedan’s colt won the Arkansas Derby but can’t run in the KY Derby, due to Baffert being persona non grata at Churchill Downs.

[mommy_peanut]

Muth (not eligible to run in the KD) scores in the Arkansas Derby.
Just Steel gets 2nd.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/275940/muth-an-easy-winner-over-just-steel-in-arkansas-derby

Updated leaderboard

[Maythehorsebewithme]

I wish Hades had run better, just because I like his name. (I also wonder if he was gelded before or after he was named, and if before, I wonder if his behavior had anything to do with his naming.)

Seize the Grey is #22, but with all the preps still to be run, doubtful he will get in unless there are a lot of defections.

[mommy_peanut]

STG is being pointed to either the Bluegrass or the Lexington. So could potentially pick up enough points to get in the Derby.

[Maythehorsebewithme]

[Laurierace]

We had a great day at Gulfstrem yesterday! I was a little worried when Fierceness went to the lead as there was a wicked track bias against front runners all day long on both dirt and turf but obviously wasn’t an issue for him. The filly race was a really strong field, I think That was the toughest race of the day. Will be interesting to see how many of them head to the Oaks. Hopefully Churchill will play a little more fair.

[LaurieB]

@Maythehorsebewithme

Seize the Grey is #22, but with all the preps still to be run, doubtful he will get in unless there are a lot of defections.

It would be unlikely for a horse who is #22 this far out not to draw into the race (unless CDI changes its mind about Baffert and he floods the race with entries.)

Years ago, we bred a horse who was #26 in March and he drew in. Three years ago, we had a horse who was #20 at this time, by the entries were drawn he was #14. Usually there are tons of changes in the rankings as the race draws near.

[dressagetraks]

I was at Oaklawn yesterday. Impressions:

Thorpedo Anna, the filly who won the Fantasy, was very impressive. I was at the paddock then, slowly working my way up to stake out my spot for the Arkansas Derby horses. She impressed me quite a bit. West Omaha had been my top choice for this race before I saw them in the paddock. She was a bit restless in the paddock (crowd? Oaklawn is a bit claustrophobic, but bigger crowd waiting at Kentucky). West Omaha also reared straight up at one point while she was being saddled. Maybe she was just having an off day, but I was thinking, it’s going to get worse in Kentucky, girl, if it was the atmosphere.

For the Arkansas Derby, Muth is a balanced, streamlined kind of horse, beautiful mover. Didn’t look as big and muscled as Timberlake, but very well put together. Very late to the paddock, but in the paddock, he was very professional. In the race, there was no question far turn on, and he seemed to have more if it had been needed.

Just Steel kind of reminds me of Country House in 2019. Same impression of a work in progress. Whatever he’s got, he hasn’t quite found all of it yet.

Timberlake is a gorgeous-looking horse, totally different type than Muth. He looked very good, just seemed to run out of gas in the race. Might be an issue in Kentucky if it was the distance.

Will add pictures in a minute. Those are still on the cell phone.

[dressagetraks]

Muth

Just Steel.

Mystik Dan

Timberlake

Cartoon

[mommy_peanut]

Bob Baffert could end up in Kentucky Derby if new lawsuit is successful

[snaffle1987]

I dont understand how this can be successful if he has failed repeatedly in court.