Up next the 144th Belmont Stakes: June 9th

[Glimmerglass]

I figured it was time to start a separate thread vs. tacking on bits to the Preakness thread …

NYRA has this nifty (pdf) Media Guide which has more historical info than anyone likely would want or need.

OLDEST TRIPLE CROWN EVENT

The Belmont Stakes, first run in 1867, is the oldest of the Triple Crown events. It predates the Preakness Stakes (first run in 1873) by six years and the Kentucky Derby (first run in 1875) by eight. Aristides, the winner of the first Kentucky Derby, ran second in the 1875 Belmont behind winner Calvin.

The five largest victory margins …
1 - 1973: Secretariat 32-lengths
2 - 1943: Count Fleet 25-lengths
3 - 1920: Man o’War 20-lengths
4 - 1988: Risen Star 14 3/4-lengths
5-T 1982 Conquistador Cielo 14-lengths
5-T 1987: Bet Twice 14-lengths

[Glimmerglass]

Regarding tickets to the event - Forbes magazine (5/22) had this blurb on the flurry of activity:

What’s the bigger potential money maker – playing the ponies or playing the ticket market to see them?

Prices for the 144th running of the Belmont Stakes on June 9 have been swinging wildly on the secondary market over the past couple of weeks. Naturally, early ticket buyers are sitting on a pile of cash, thanks to Kentucky Derby and Preakness victories by I’ll Have Another that sets up the Belmont as a Triple Crown race (no horse has taken the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978).

The cheapest Belmont Stakes ticket went for $17 just as the Kentucky Derby was kicking off on May 5. It’s now up to $87. Later, the Preakness win by I’ll Have Another pushed the average ticket price at Belmont up to $609.21 by this past Monday morning from $294 on Saturday morning, May 12, just before the Preakness.

[Glimmerglass]

As for wagering you might wonder how often does the post-time favorite win? Well not often as you can see going back to 1999:

Year. Wagering favorite. Odds. Finish

1984 Swale 1.50 1st
1985 Chief ’s Crown 2.00 3rd
1986 Rampage 2.80 7th
1987 Alysheba .80 4th
1988 Risen Star 2.10 1st
1989 Sunday Silence .90 2nd
1990 Unbridled Even 4th
1991 Strike the Gold 2.20 2nd
1992 A. P. Indy 1.10 1st
1993 Prairie Bayou 2.70 DNF
1994 Strodes Creek 1.30 3rd
1995 Thunder Gulch 1.50 1st
1996 Cavonnier 3.00 DNF
1997 Silver Charm 1.05 2nd
1998 Real Quiet .80 2nd
1999 Charismatic 1.60 3rd
2000 Aptitude 1.75 2nd
2001 Point Given 1.35 1st
2002 War Emblem 1.25 8th
2003 Funny Cide 1.00 3rd
2004 Smarty Jones .35 2nd
2005 Afleet Alex 1.15 1st
2006 Bob and John 4.70 8th
2007 Curlin 1.10 2nd
2008 Big Brown .30 DNF
2009 Mine That Bird 1.25 3rd
2010 Ice Box 1.85 9th
2011 Animal Kingdom 2.60 6th

(pdf) The racing chart for every Belmont since 1867 when the filly Ruthless won over three scared rivals.

[Glimmerglass]

One more factoid with regards to the name of the winner

“C” is the most popular first initial for winning Belmont runners. It has taken 20 runnings of the race.

A - 10
B - 10
C - 20
D - 6
E - 4
F - 4
G - 8
H - 10
I - 2
J - 7
K - 1
L - 3
M - 4
N - 3
O - 3
P - 11
Q - 1
R - 5
S - 18
T - 8
U - 0
V - 2
W - 2
X - 0
Y - 0
Z - 1

[Kim]

That is really neat! Thanks for sharing.

[Glimmerglass]

The DRF’s lead clocker - Mike Watchmaker has put out his prelim odds:

I’ll Have Another 4-5, Dullahan 5-1, Union Rags 6-1.

(others): Alpha 15-1; Atigun 15-1; Five Sixteen 50-1; Guyana Star Dweej 50-1; Optimizer 30-1; Paynter 12-1; Rousing Sermon 20-1; Stealcase 30-1; Street Life 15-1; Unstoppable U 30-1

Obviously the field isn’t even near yet being set however it does give an indication that most of the field is perhaps dismissible.

While without a horse <a href=":“http://twitter.com/#!/DRFGrening/status/205309077000175616”>Nick Zito was asked for a comment:

Nick Zito, who stopped the last 2 Triple Crown bids, says “it’s hard not to root for I’ll Have Another. … This horse has incredible will.”

[dressagetraks]

Neat trivia bits. By the way, did they ever figure out what happened to Swale?

[ravenclaw]

[QUOTE=dressagetraks;6332878]
Neat trivia bits. By the way, did they ever figure out what happened to Swale?[/QUOTE]

I think it was a lesion in his heart.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=dressagetraks;6332878]
Neat trivia bits. By the way, did they ever figure out what happened to Swale?[/QUOTE]

Video replay: 1984 Belmont Stakes (which btw was 96-degrees that day)

Swale’s time was, then, the 4th fastest ever and he took the victory by 4-lengths in a time of 2:27 1/5

An interesting news account of his burial, link below, with Swale next to Triple Crown champion Gallant Fox. He was at the time just one of three horses buried in their entire form. Others such as Hoist The Flag were buried with only head, heart, hooves:

The Associated Press June 19, 1984 “Swale now rests beneath Kentucky’s bluegrass”

There were a few stories on his death that had suggestions, but I didn’t see a definitive conclusion post necropsy at New Bolton. Sports Illustrated June 24, 1994 - “Suddenly A Young Champion Is Gone”

Because of the fragility of the thoroughbred, racing is the harshest of the money games—always has been and always will be. Few have seen that point driven home so hard as Stephens, who at the start of the year was the envy of horsemen across the country because of his barnful of brilliant 3-year-olds: the colts Devil’s Bag, Swale, Morning Bob, Dinner Money and Vision; the fillies Miss Oceana and Flippers. But now the barn is almost empty.

The Bag, who had been so successful at two, came up lame and was retired to stud without winning a single important race at three; Morning Bob was sold after his victory in the Pennsylvania Derby on Memorial Day and was turned over to another trainer; and Dinner Money was injured in March during a morning workout. Miss Oceana won some big races, but Vision and Flippers fizzled against major competition. And now Swale is dead.

“It just hasn’t dawned on me yet how much it hurts,” said the stunned Stephens on Sunday.

Swale’s groom from age 2 until weeks before his death - Michael Klein- wrote a memoir “Track Conditions” (1998) in which he talks about how he was fired a few days before the Preakness. An admitted alcoholic he stopped drinking shortly after Swale’s death because of the horse’s impact on his life. Steve Crist did a positive piece on him that was published in the New York Times unknowingly the day after he was terminated by famed trainer Woody Stephens.

[Glimmerglass]

Kent Desormeaux - who due to his alcohol woes lost the mount of Dullhan to Javier Castellano -airs doubts about I’ll Have Another’s jockey and his chances in the Belmont:

“A first-time jockey will be lost. I don’t care how much you try to explain it,” Desormeaux told The Daily on Monday.

“And a first-time horse will be lost, equally. If you think you can bring a horse here and introduce him to Belmont Park a few days before the Belmont Stakes, you have wronged yourself. When you’re on a mile track as a jockey, it’s time to start prepping forward when you hit the last turn. The horses learn it and think it’s time to go because that’s what they know and that’s what they’re trained. As a jockey, when you get to Belmont Park, you have to mediate it and that’s very difficult.”

Admittedly Jerry Bailey cited the same concerns for any jock when they tackle Big Sandy for the first time. The massive size of the track is so unique that distance is lost relative to position.

[Glimmerglass]

Don’t be surprised if Rousing Sermon skips the entry box for the Belmont. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer “leaning in another direction”.

As mentioned before Nick Zito is on the I’ll Have Another bandwagon.

Zito, who has won five Triple Crown races, said he will be rooting for I’ll Have Another to pull off the feat. In addition to being a fan of the horse’s relentless style – “He got an incredible will,” Zito said – he loves the fact the horse was a modest purchase at $35,000.

“It’s hard not to root for I’ll Have Another, because the horse is incredible,” Zito said Wednesday morning. “And the story of the $35,000 horse going into this race gives everybody hope. . . . That’s the horse going for the Triple Crown – the $35,000 horse – not the other horses.”

Zito also likes the fact that I’ll Have Another is coming off two races run in similar fashion. [b]Zito noted that Smarty Jones and Big Brown were coming off blow-out victories of 11 1/2 lengths and 5 1/2 lengths, respectively, in the Preakness.

“He’s just running his race every time, not winning by seven lengths or nine lengths,” Zito said.[/b] “A lot of people forget Smarty Jones was the winner of the Triple Crown going a mile and a quarter, but the Belmont is a mile and a half. and Birdstone beat him. Big Brown didn’t fire that day and Da’Tara was a mile-and-a-half specialist.”

[Glimmerglass]

Always some interesting bits although mixed in with a slight undercurrent tone against racing: the short lived New York Times blog of “The Rail” 2012 edition

http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/

In the Preakness - I’ll Have Another scored a 109-Beyer Speed Figure which is his highest yet.

Quick trivia question: who rode IHA in his Saratoga race last year?

[Glimmerglass]

No Stealcase in the Belmont - the Watchmaker odds pegged the colt at 30-1 in the Belmont, instead per the connections:

“We’re going to point for the [June 16th] Matt Winn stakes."

That Grade 3 1 1/16 mi race will be run during Churchill Down’s next installment of “Downs After Dark”

[Glimmerglass]

Far too much negative press swirling around to get terribly enthusiastic about the Belmont. From O’Neill’s future suspension, Penny’s comments - and the rebuttal, DWL lingering comments pre-Preakness, and of course the as expected New York “we absolutely hate horse racing” Times doing their barrage of negative soapboxing … I’m in large part pulling back from keeping tabs on the final leg.

O’Neill did however - and largely for ceremonial purposes - reach out to Billy Turner for Belmont advice. Nothing against Turner as his Slew adventure remains a stand out although I wouldn’t deem him a Belmont success story. Turner for his part isn’t going to suggest IHA is Slew

Turner said he doesn’t see too many similarities between Seattle Slew and I’ll Have Another.

“Both are beautiful movers,” Turner said. “As far as their attitudes and so forth, Slew was a bear of a hose. This horse seems to do what you ask him to do and he likes to do it, and that’s just the kind of horse you like to train. Slew was a lot of work.”

“The most important thing about Belmont is training on the track,” said the 72-year-old Turner, who still trains a few horses on this circuit. “Woody [Stephens] proved it time and time again. You go back and try to find somebody that’s done something surprising in the Belmont that didn’t train on the track and you The exception might have been last year when Ruler On Ice vanned up from Monmouth Park the morning of the race to win the Belmont at 24-1."

A positive for the ‘I’ll Have Another’ crew is that uber successful Steve Cauthen likes jockey Gutierrez for his patience and calm style.

Gutierrez will get to tour the Belmont track aboard Lava Man with Richard Migliore aboard another O’Neill horse. The Mig, even retired, knows the track as well as anyone and such a tandem ride could yield some significant clues with what to avoid. According to the New York Racing Association, the event will take place either June 6 or 7.

How about those likely/potential Belmont starters along with early odds? The DRF’s main clocker Mike Watchmaker has tagged odds to the envisioned field:

Horse. Trainer. Jockey. MW Odds <> Last Race

Alpha. K. McLaughlin. R. Dominguez. 15-1 <> Kentucky Derby, 12th
Atigun. K. McPeek. J. Leparoux. 30-1 <> Churchill allowance, 1st
Dullahan. D. Romans. J. Castellano. 6-1 <> Kentucky Derby, 3rd
Five Sixteen. D. Schettino. R. Napravnik. 50-1 <> Aqueduct allowance, 4th
Guyana Star Dweej. D. Shivmangal. TBD. 50-1 <> Belmont OC/allowance, 2nd
I’ll Have Another. D. O’Neill. M. Gutierrez. 3-5 <> Preakness, 1st
Optimizer. D. Lukas. C. Nakatani. 30-1 <> Preakness, 6th
Paynter. B. Baffert. M. Smith. 10-1 <> Pimlico allowance, 1st
Ravelo’s Boy. M. Azpurua. A. Solis. 50-1 <> Tampa Bay Derby, 5th
Street Life. C. Brown. J. Lezcano. 15-1 <> Peter Pan, 3rd
Union Rags. M. Matz. J. Velazquez. 8-1 <> Kentucky Derby, 7th
Unstoppable U. K. McPeek J. Alvarado. 30-1 <> Belmont allowance, 1st

I’ll take Rosie on a 50-1 long shot to get at least show. Even if she was on a rented mule you know she’d make a race out of it!

[WhiteCamry]

@Glimmerglass;6347619

I’ll take Rosie on a 50-1 long shot to get at least show. Even if she was on a rented mule you know she’d make a race out of it!

Worth noting!

[danceronice]

Why is Guyana Star Dweej in there? Why?

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=danceronice;6347901]
Why is Guyana Star Dweej in there? Why?[/QUOTE]

Maybe he’s a complimentary rabbit for the field Honestly it makes no sense to me.

They’re better off - and it still is a stretch - to aim for the 7-furlong Grade 2 $400k Woody Stephens on the Belmont undercard as Hansen is. I don’t see ‘Star’ being graded stakes caliber now and the expected field will be strong. Yet it makes a hell of a lot more logical sense over a 1 1/2 race and the idiocy of ‘swinging for the fences’ stuff. Sure the Belmont could fall apart in the last 1/8th of the mile … but Guyana will be by then huffing and puffing like a 3 pack a day unfiltered smoker some 18-lengths behind.

[Glimmerglass]

Tight, tight, tight security

The new Belmont rules - implemented by NYRA/NYSRWB caught Michael Matz and Union Rags off guard. Tweet from Jay Privman:

Matz was planning on shipping Thurs. When I told him Union Rags needed to be on grounds by noon Wed, he said, “I guess we’re coming Wed.”

Yep - new rules on Belmont mandate ALL runners need to be on site by noon June 6th. And that is just the beginning of how uber strict they are getting to make sure nobody is dare suggesting any malfeasance with runners:

[upon the noon arrival, the horse] will then be confined to an isolated barn guarded by personnel from the New York State Racing and Wagering Board and private security guards under a series of strict requirements announced by the board on Wednesday.

Under the protocols, access to the Belmont horses will be limited to the horses’ trainers, assistant trainers, grooms, hotwalkers, veterinarians, and owners, the board said. Any person who enters a horse’s stall will need to be logged in and logged out and provide a reason for the visit, the board said, and they will be subject to “administrative searches and checks of all equipment, feed, hay, bales, etc.”

In addition, the board is requiring that every horse entered in the Belmont have its blood tested for illegal substances on the day that they are required to enter the security barn, June 6.

Veterinarians treating the horses will need to “provide written notice” of any treatments, the board said. On June 8, veterinarians will not be allowed to administer treatments to horses “without first making an appointment with [board] investigators,” the board said, and on June 9, “treatment will only be permitted for emergency or by agreements with the stewards.”

Run clean or don’t run at all.

[Glimmerglass]

A bit more on Guyana Star Dweej the purported Belmont hopeful. As tweeted by the DRF’s David Grening 5/30/12:

Guyana Star Dweej was working 5-8ths but rider pulled him up before wire. Early fractions were 12.57, 24.70, 37.39. Should skip Belmont.

[Phaxxton]

Regarding tickets to the event - Forbes magazine (5/22) had this blurb on the flurry of activity:

[quote]Quote:
What’s the bigger potential money maker – playing the ponies or playing the ticket market to see them?

Prices for the 144th running of the Belmont Stakes on June 9 have been swinging wildly on the secondary market over the past couple of weeks. Naturally, early ticket buyers are sitting on a pile of cash, thanks to Kentucky Derby and Preakness victories by I’ll Have Another that sets up the Belmont as a Triple Crown race (no horse has taken the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978).
The cheapest Belmont Stakes ticket went for $17 just as the Kentucky Derby was kicking off on May 5. It’s now up to $87. Later, the Preakness win by I’ll Have Another pushed the average ticket price at Belmont up to $609.21 by this past Monday morning from $294 on Saturday morning, May 12, just before the Preakness.

[/quote]

Just as an FYI for those who are interested in attending, but don’t want to pay big bucks for tickets on the secondary market… Anyone can get in the day of general admission for $5-10. I moved from Long Island over a year ago, but prior to that, I went to Belmont every year (even on Triple Crown years) and had ZERO problem getting in general admission the day of. IIRC, last I went it was $5 general admission or $10 general admission with more access (including nice bathrooms). No, you don’t get an assigned seat or box, but you DO get a fun day and every year, we were right up against the rail near the finish line for the race. Best “seat” in the house by far!

I will say it’s possible my prices are outdated by a couple years… but no need to drop major coin just to attend the race!