[QUOTE=Divine Comedy;8736255]
To some extent though, it’s really not for equestrian and eventing/dressage in particular. Sure, the new coach is working with the riders, but this sport to a strong extent is about having the best horses in the world. Within the four years time frame, we are essentially still working with the same horses we had four years ago for the most part, but they are further along in their training. Still, there is a cap on what they can do and it’s unlikely that most of our current horses can challenge for individual medals. Loughan Glen is the exception, and certainly Mai Baum and RF Scandalous may have had potential to do the same but obviously are out for the year.
Meanwhile, we are hopefully bringing along more talented horses along behind them, but from green to Olympics, that is really an eight year process, not a four year one. Mai Baum is a good example of the rising talent, and Doesn’t Play Fair doesn’t fall far off the mark based off his spring season this year. Both of these horses are essentially just now ‘coming into power’ per se, and both could be major contenders by 2020.
Look at all the press Water Cube is getting. He’s a four year old, just off the track, and the main media outlets keep saying that event though he won’t be ready for Rio, he could be there for Tokyo. The reality is that if the horse becomes an Olympic prospect, it won’t be until 2024, when he’s twelve.
Basically, it’s really more of a six to eight year process to bring a horse from baby to the Olympic levels, even with a pro like Boyd or Phillip. If we’re selecting different horses under the new process and coach (and I do think WEG caused a re-evaluation of the blood we need, so that process could have essentially started over in 2014), we’re really looking at 2020 before we could be a major player on the team front.[/QUOTE]
Agreed. And yet this is the stage we are in at every Olympics. Every WEG. For many years.
McKinlaigh was a solid, proven, ready horse in 2008, not a ‘hope for the best’ and/or ‘well the rider can nurse him around’. Connaught was as well … but they won’t all hit just right at once. The rest of the team? Before it or past it. That’s us.
It’s as if our anchor riders PD and BM scramble around in the last 48-36 months before the big show to come up with a ride. Where as riders such as Jung, WFP, Nicholson, etc. keep a stable containing several options to pick from, based on the expected demands of each particular Olympic/WEG course. In comparison we never seem to have all the cards in hand on the day, the way certain other reliable medal-winning countries do.
The US development plan is always running to keep up. Never ahead of the game. Always at the mercy of fate if something happens to one or two of the strongest contenders we have. Whereas at any given WEG/Olympic year the British could easily fill two or three medal-worthy teams. They leave at home riders that would anchor the majority of teams.
I would say this year we are closer to having a very strong bench than has been the case … maybe ever? That’s looking better for the future. At least our best riders are staying at the level much longer than was sometimes the case in the past. So a lot of the development program - sending riders to Europe, spreading out team attention … is paying back results. It’s just a slow build process, compared with how quickly the Germans brought it together.