I breed Tb sport horses , so on the whole I don’t pay attention to nicks. But on occasion I get inquiries from race people on my TBs listed for sale. So… This time with my short list of stallions chosen for other reasons I am taking nicks into consideration sine Equineline kindly has them available with hypo mating. How many plus signs is a good thing? My top pick at present comes up A++
I’m curious what people have to say about this. I’ve seen bad nicks that were the same cross of a famous horse… Plus one nicking service can say good and the other bad…
No one who plans makings for a living puts any stock in them because they only consider the sire side of the mating and are regraded after a horse goes on to do well. They are mainly a marketing tool.
It’s a statistical game so you have to have successful previous like breedings to make your intended cross a positive nick. For example Zenyatta’s breeding was a C nick until she made it an A.
They are useful, they save a lot of time if you want to know if a particular cross has had any previous success, and if so, how much. Like Street Cry with a Kris S mare has proven to be successful (Zenyatta, Balance). They don’t take into consideration conformation, so you definitely still have to do your research and weigh in all your factors, but I think they are very useful.
[QUOTE=Laurierace;7495048]
No one who plans makings for a living puts any stock in them because they only consider the sire side of the mating and are regraded after a horse goes on to do well. They are mainly a marketing tool.[/QUOTE]
Categorically untrue. I would have used IMO and or speak for yourself.
I am someone who has and does plan matings for a living. Not only for myself but clients also. And have for many, many years. Doing so as I write this. Took a break to pick up a PM.
I have signed, with shaky hands, a couple of $25,00+ contracts so far. I do not put a lot of stock in nicking reports but I do not dismiss them either. They certainly have relevance and carry a certain amount of “weight” with buyers. No I do not just pull nicking reports and go with the best and sign a contract. There are a number of other factors that are taken into consideration and carry far more “weight”.
When on the buying side of things as an agent I can tell you that buyers especially those spending significant money want to see as many positives as possible before putting a horse on the “short list”. A “B” nick is not going to be dismissed but an A++ and everything else “ticks the boxes” goes along way and the horse WILL bring more money. A horse with a “D” nick will have to be pretty special in many other ways to make the list.
The pedigrees and produce of our broodmare band would be pretty moderate in the grand scheme of things and need as much help as possible to make a “case” for buyers. I will not breed to any stallion that does not “nick” well. Our yearlings tend to out sell their pedigrees and the majority do well enough on the racetrack. In the last 7 years 4 horses that we bred were thought well enough of to be nominated to the Triple Crown. Granted there are generally around 600 nominated each year and only 20 get in the gate. None of which have been one of ours. But there are over 25,000± other horses bred each year that did not get nominated. So we take some pride in this.
Nicking reports are just one of a number of “tools” used when making breeding plans. But the information supplied is only as good as the person extrapolating the data. Especially when it comes to “freshmen” sires.
I’m finally getting to embark on breeding my own after decades and decades of foaling out everyone else’s horses. Even though I’m breeding for myself and not to sell, I don’t see much reason to breed on a C or D nick when there are plenty of options with an A or B nick.
Even though it’s a marketing tool with very limited scope, it’s one more feather in a horse’s proverbial cap to help make them more attractive to a buyer down the road. If I ever needed to sell mine, it’s an additional point that just might make the horse more valuable to someone.
I would never choose a subpar stallion solely because of a good nicking report. Nor would a C or D nick stop me dead in my tracks if I truly believed a stallion was the best choice for my mare. But… history is probably more accurate than anything I’m thinking at this point as a greenhorn breeder. :lol:
Conformation, trainability and pedigree are the first things I go by. On pedigree there are certain bloodlines I prefer or avoid for various reasons. So that gets us to the short list .for the most part studfees up to 2,500. I was willing to stretch to 3500 for one stallion I finally decided was just right, but then he moved to CA so we are back to the short list.not likely derby prospects I’m breeding, but as some of the sport bred Tb yearlings for sale have drawn some race buyer inquiries I figured I would look into this as a tool once I was already at the short list.
[QUOTE=camohn;7495452]
Conformation, trainability and pedigree are the first things I go by. On pedigree there are certain bloodlines I prefer or avoid for various reasons. So that gets us to the short list .for the most part studfees up to 2,500. I was willing to stretch to 3500 for one stallion I finally decided was just right, but then he moved to CA so we are back to the short list.not likely derby prospects I’m breeding, but as some of the sport bred Tb yearlings for sale have drawn some race buyer inquiries I figured I would look into this as a tool once I was already at the short list.[/QUOTE]
If you are asking about the value of a given “nick” in relation to breeding for sport and not for the racing and or sale of the resulting foal then IMO they hold little to no value for that purpose.
My earlier comment was strictly directed towards breeding for racing but more so toward selling at auction and or privately. This is a Racing forum.
“Nicks” by and large are and to put it simply a “statistic” based on the law of averages.
“a law affirming that in the long run probabilities will determine performance”
Nicks do not take into consideration the physical make up, conformation of the resulting horse. It is a “given” that the resulting horses that receives a Nick rating of A to be well made. But the same can be said of a D Nick. This is were “all things being equal” comes into play. It should not necessarily be used to predict the odds of getting a well made horse because it is an “A” Nick. But considering that most but not all good race horses are pretty well made one can give a certain level of credence that an A nick should give the desired result depending on the mare and her produce history.
Yes, there are those that completely dismiss and or put very little value in Nick rating especially those that make certain assumptions based on a similar cross instead of a direct cross. Like those used with freshman sires which are entirely based on the “grand parents”. Or the same sire over a grand daughter or a son, like Thunder Gulch instead of Gulch.
“Nicks” have been around and used for many decades. Before computers the Bloodhorse published a yearly book. Nicks by and large are based purely on the racetrack performance of all horses bred on the same or similar crosses. For example the most famous being Northern Dancer over Mr. Prospector mares. To this day the same pattern is used with sons and daughters of both. If you were to look at a lot of pedigree current and past you will see Northern Dancer over Mr. P used extensively.
The use of computers to look for identifying traits depends on who wrote the software and algorithms used. Which is why when looking at Nicking reports from different companies will give a different “quality”. But they are usually not that far a part.
All crosses start out as a “D” nick when first tried/used. If the cross produces a superior horse on the track the Nick will be upgraded. I think I am safe in saying that all of us who plan matings each year look to what others have tried with similar pedigrees. Either directly with half or full siblings or those further back in the mares pedigree. We have studied breeding “theories” of successful breeders past and present. Most of which had/have deep pockets and could afford mistakes. Mistakes that are generally not talked about.
There are those that are of the mind a Nick represents the “perfect mix” of genes which is why it gives a high percentage of good racehorses. I think “A” nicks happen because they have to happen. Using the tried and true cross of Northern Dancer over Mr. Prospector for example. When a horse wins big races we all study the pedigree and commit to memory. Especially first crop sires and sires who’s daughters are just becoming of age to be used as broodmares. So if we have a mare who’s dam sire who has yet to “established” a record of crossing with a certain sire line, or thinking of using a stallion who’s first crop were 3 year olds we look to see what others took a gamble on that seems to have paid off.
We generally inspect lots of yearlings each year pretty simple to do though a lot of work. With as many as 5,000 going through the ring at Keeneland each September makes it very convenient. We are able to see the results of various crosses of any particular stallion and make notes.
So taking this and the fact that there were a number of “talking horses” on the racetrack that appear to have one thing in common, Northern Dancer over Mr. Prospector and the breeders saw some yearlings that looked the part based on this cross and the breeders has a mare by Mr. Prospector or perhaps a mare by his sire Raise A Native why not give it a try. Most of us don’t have the funds to gamble and “out smart” those that do. So we jump on the band wagon. Two years down the road instead of being a few yearlings by ND over Mr. P there are say 15, then 20 ect. IMO the law of averages kicks in. That being said I am not one who believes in coincidence either. So IMO one can not dismiss “nicks” strictly based on the “law of averages” either.
I am not game enough or have deep enough pockets to chance coming up with a “tee shirt” of my own that I may wear with pride or most likely end up in the drawer. So, when I am signing a contract on a stud fee for serious money I will give strong consideration going with the most popular “T shirts”.
Sorry to have been long winded but IMO most things “horses” can not be explained in a couple of sentences and be of any educational value.
[QUOTE=Texarkana;7495447]
I’m finally getting to embark on breeding my own after decades and decades of foaling out everyone else’s horses. Even though I’m breeding for myself and not to sell, I don’t see much reason to breed on a C or D nick when there are plenty of options with an A or B nick.
Even though it’s a marketing tool with very limited scope, it’s one more feather in a horse’s proverbial cap to help make them more attractive to a buyer down the road. If I ever needed to sell mine, it’s an additional point that just might make the horse more valuable to someone.
I would never choose a subpar stallion solely because of a good nicking report. Nor would a C or D nick stop me dead in my tracks if I truly believed a stallion was the best choice for my mare. But… history is probably more accurate than anything I’m thinking at this point as a greenhorn breeder. :lol:[/QUOTE]
Even though breeding for the “sales” or breeding to race should be one and the same it is not.
Don’t have the time to explain the nuances right now.
[QUOTE=gumtree;7496475]
Even though breeding for the “sales” or breeding to race should be one and the same it is not.
Don’t have the time to explain the nuances right now.[/QUOTE]
Oh, don’t get me wrong-- I very much understand the difference after years of doing consignments and sales prep!
For someone like me who is breeding homebreds, a commercial pedigree for the sales is not a priority or even a concern. But I do think it’s responsible to breed something that someone else would want, too! You can’t control the future, ya know? A good nick doesn’t mean all that much in the long run-- it’s all about the individual. But it can be one more talking point for a horse if need be.
Unfortunately sometimes all it means the horse looks good on paper.
[QUOTE=spotted draft x filly;7496669]
Unfortunately sometimes all it means the horse looks good on paper.[/QUOTE]
Most of the time it doesn’t even mean that. You can have a foal by an unraced sire out of an unraced mare and still have an A++ nick.
I am looking into nicks in regards to race sales because in the past I have had some race inquiries on my sport bred tb yearlings.so this time around I am keeping that in mind. If I have 2 stallions I really like for sport and looking at race nicks one is a D and one is A++ maybe I should consider it as a tie breaker for future sales options. I have one mare of non descript pedigree I bought because I saw her first 2 foals… Verygoodlooking offspring. The others have very classy pedigrees… Either they didn’t run well or sustained injuries like chipped knees
A nick is a guideline based on a very small portion of a potential pedigree–sirelines only, and often calculated from what worked with a grandsire or great-grandsire. They’re a marketing tool that exists to sell…more nicks. (And horses to people who believe that a hypothetical letter grade is more important and easier to understand than the horse standing in front of them.)
Do I look at them when planning matings? Sure. Do I base my decisions on them? No, not all. Especially since the majority of nicks are based on sample sizes small enough to be statistically irrelevant.
[QUOTE=camohn;7496821]
If I have 2 stallions I really like for sport and looking at race nicks one is a D and one is A++ maybe I should consider it as a tie breaker for future sales options. [/QUOTE]
I think that’s the best way to utilize the information for your situation! I wouldn’t lose sleep over it. :lol:
At the end of the day, actual racing and produce performance always trumps a nick, good or bad.
Mr. A++ nick is Medallist. He is the highest stud fee of my short list but at stud the longest too. An up side is though my search area was within a 6 hour drive radius he is literally 15 min up the road from me… So does save on transportation and mare care fees.
You are in California? I don’t know where you are in relation to Prime Timber, but he is my FAVORITE! I would totally send a mare to him if I had one worth breeding. I have loved every one of his babies I’ve been on, and they make great sporthorses after racing, so they are pretty easy to rehome.
I’m in PA. My first choice was Eddington but he moved to CA.
Where did I get CA? Sorry!
