War horse pedigrees

[sisu27]

Using the 50+ starts and $100k+ earnings definition of war horse, has anyone ever created a database of the most common breeding of these horses?

I’m forever cruising the ottb adds and like to check how the horses with good soundness/longevity are bred. My informal study leads me to believe for example you won’t find Storm Cat very often, you will find Seattle Slew frequently. Both prolific but clearly not a large enough sample to really come to any conclusion.

Does such a thing exist? What breeding would those of you well educated expect to see frequently? How far back really matters?

Should earnings matter or should starts weigh more heavily when looking for a sport horse for soundness? Do earnings really relate to athleticism as a sport horse? Is it more discipline specific?

Random musings from a wanna be pedigree geek on a rainy day.

[Simkie]

You might like the work that the Greyson-Jockey Club research center does–they rate stallions by how durable their progeny is. Here’s the latest report, but they’ve been doing this for years, and you can go look up previous reports, too. Always interesting to see who comes out at the top of the list.

eletter23.pdf

[Texarkana]

This is like my pet hobby.

First, with the close relatedness of all TBs and the alacrity at which generations pass, you really need to focus on the immediate. Even sires like “Storm Cat” or “Seattle Slew” are too far back on the page to be particularly meaningful in most cases.

Focus on the first 3 generations.

Second, absolutely pay attention to durability stats that @Simkie linked. They are a fantastic data set that they have been keeping for more than a decade. But also realize there are some outside factors that influence the data: particularly stud fee and book size. The middle market gets overly represented while the opposite ends of the spectrum are swayed by economic factors. That’s not a knock on the list at all; it’s the best data by all means. Economics are just a huge factor in racing.

[sami-joe]

Thanks to the OP and to @Simkie for this thread, especially for the Grayson-Jockey Club’s work. I like to say that I know enough about TB pedigrees to be dangerous. Hence, I will not be breeding any in the near future.

Still, I have been a little obsessed with the Blushing Groom/Mr. Prospector mash-up, Carson City among others, for nearly a decade, ever since a good friend, an actual TB expert, knew my gelding’s lines by looking at him for less than a minute.

Though nearly a decade old, this John Sparkman ode to Mr. Prospector sounds about right to me. He notes the stallion’s strength as a broodmare producer – yes, fully I’ve romanticized the Penny Chenery story. Also, broodmares get short shrift generally, right?

Sparkman: Mr. Prospector line has no American equal

[Texarkana]

This is going to be a lot of “theoretical Texarkana babble” that I cannot prove, but Mr. Prospector was not of this world. He had a way of crossing with just about any line, keeping the “good” from the other line while infusing speed.

When you look at his progeny, many of them are spitting images of their dam/broodmare sire.

As a result, I often wonder if his success wasn’t because he brought some genetic diversity to the forefront. Which seems like an ironic claim when we utilize him so heavily. But someone like Fappiano, for example, has kept the Dr. Fager line in the mix longer than it otherwise would have remained successful. And that’s just one example.

[sami-joe]

@Texarkana

“theoretical Texarkana babble”

I’m here for it. All day, every day.

I have my own Blushing Groom babble, replete with photos.

[libgrrl]

My old guy was a distance grass horse with 54 starts, and he was a winner into his 9 year old year. Sire was Belong to Me (Danzig) but his damline was really intriguing – for Europe at least! Dam was a Roberto mare out of a stakes winning daughter of Mr. P that produced 3 stakes winners herself. He will be 30. Since he is Danzig on top and Roberto on the bottom, I’m intrigued by Arch, who flips those bloodlines (although I thought the “old formula” was speed on top and stamina on the bottom.)

[Texarkana]

I always find it ironic that there are numerous sires with brief racing careers cut short by injury who went on to be bastions of soundness as sires.

Danzig and Malibu Moon immediately come to mind.

[libgrrl]

That’s always amazed me too! Stablemate was a stakes placed son of Doneraile Court (Seattle Slew) who had 70 starts.

[sami-joe]

@libgrrl

He will be 30.

That’s some longevity, alright. Though I’m new at this TB pedigree arcana, that feels like Arab DNA showing up.

My TB expert pal is a Danzig fan. She had an Elusive Quality horse she loved, too.

Kind of a side conversation: might the OTTB placement not-for-profits contribute to this kind of research?
Money is probably too tight, and it could set up a hierarchy.
Would really be good to have this kind of spreadsheet at hand, though. For some.

[Texarkana]

The Grayson-Jockey Club Foundation have been keeping statistics on it since the 00s.

I’m not sure the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance has the additional funding to take something like that on, but it would be nice if Grayson-Jockey Club could share their data in a manner that TAA could market.

However, I also think you can make a mountain out of a molehill with this kind of information and do more harm than good. While there are definitely patterns of lines that are more durable vs. less durable, it all comes down to the individiual horse. For example, the myth that “Mr. Prospector made thoroughbreds less sound” has been perpetuated for years in both the racing community and the sporthorse community. The data does not support that idea, but that doesn’t keep people from continuing to spread the myth. It’s to the point where if you posted a potential sporthorse prospect with a lot of Mr. P blood on this very forum, someone would probably make a comment about potential unsoundness when there is no reason to believe that. If TAA was promoting certain bloodlines over others, I could see that unintentionally scaring people away from perfectly suitable and sound prospects.

Hopefully she won’t mind the tag, but @MsRidiculous shared on IG awhile back that she was trying to compile some sort of database of what TB bloodlines were doing what in competition after racing. I don’t know if she is still working on that project.

[Arzny]

Interesting that you mention Slew. My grandson of his had 88 starts and was retired sound and still running well. He was only retired because he was getting bored with the racetrack life.

My other gelding, with 67 lifetime starts, is a Danzig grandson. They’re two tough guys!

[TooManyTBs]

This is my current horse (and yes I show him under this name): https://www.pedigreequery.com/sir+whinesalot

He had 65 starts, he’s now 25, we did a 10 mile trail ride yesterday, we were champion in the hunters today, he’s eventing next weekend. I have to be careful with shoeing but otherwise he’s sound and solid. I’m telling myself this is his last year showing, so definitely interested in the modern day solid lines as I’ll shopping next year.

[Texarkana]

@TooManyTBs

This is my current horse (and yes I show him under this name): https://www.pedigreequery.com/sir+whinesalot

He had 65 starts, he’s now 25, we did a 10 mile trail ride yesterday, we were champion in the hunters today, he’s eventing next weekend. I have to be careful with shoeing but otherwise he’s sound and solid. I’m telling myself this is his last year showing, so definitely interested in the modern day solid lines as I’ll shopping next year.

Out of an Eastern Echo mare.

Eastern Echo up close always makes me smile.

That’s the pedigree of a horse I’d like to own, unfortunately there aren’t too many left with those lines.