Sounds like you’re in an ideal scenario!
I buy my sales horses as 3/4/5 year olds that are already under saddle. No guesswork, no wondering what they’ll be. But I buy all of my personal horses as young horses. The last few have been purchased at 11 months, 2 years, and 2 weeks of age. Jumpers, not dressage, but same difference in regards to looking for an athletic prospect.
The 11 month old turned out to not be what I wanted. He had a major chicken streak and wanted to be a hunter (I wanted him to be a jumper), so I sold him. In hindsight, all of his quirks were obvious from his first day under saddle. But ever the eternal optimist, I kept chalking it up to normal young horse development.
The next is my up and coming star who has been winning in the young horses classes for the last several years. She was not only worth the wait, but worth sorting through others who weren’t exactly what I wanted! She was my first purchase from the group that I now buy all of my horses from. She’s the cover photo on my website: www.flyingfsporthorses.com
And my 2 week old filly just got put under saddle a couple of weeks ago as a newly-turned-3yo, but then I went and broke my ribs (ugh!). I have no question that she’ll be exactly what I want. And there’s no way in a million years I could have afforded her as an older horse - also, I never would have been in the position of being able to buy her if I had waited.
What I’ve learned over the years is that the breeder is of utmost importance. I now work with breeders that are absolutely and ridiculously accurate when they predict what a young horse will be. I would buy sight unseen any time from this group. Without them, I consider buying a young horse to be a flip of a coin. With them, it’s a highly educated prediction that’s been spot on so far.
I dream of the day when my bank accounts overflow and I can buy the winning machine at the top of the sport, but realistically that’s never going to happen. Also, my favorite part of this sport is the development part. Don’t get me wrong, I love riding in big classes, but it’s something special to ride in a big class on a horse you started from scratch! And I’m kind of cheap when it comes to my own keeper horses. I just can’t convince myself to spend big dollars (that I don’t have) on something that’s purely for me. So I am guessing that I will stay in the exact mode you described above, OP - keeping my eye out for that young horse that speaks to me. Having your own place makes it less of a gamble. Being willing to sell the horse if it’s not “the” horse makes it even that much easier (or less risky). And being in a position to NOT buy on impulse is probably the best factor of all.
Best of luck to you!