I suppose that depends on a number of factors, too. How immediately are you hoping to be competitive at Novice? How much training are you willing to put in the horse on your own dime? How far from NorCal are you willing to go in your search in order to seek out more affordable pricing?
I am in the process of buying a horse for myself (unglamorous looking draft x, gelding, bay, some white, cute face, 6 y.o.) that could reasonably go Novice by the end of next season, I think, if the stars of soundness and life align to help us. I paid $5k in the Midwest (which is most decidedly NOT the Bay Area). He’s not presently at that level. He’s larger than the size you mention, but here, in general, I think his 16.3 brings his value up for must buyers, not down. That said, I think LH is right about potential resale of lg. pony vs. “hony” (15hh-ish) horse; you’d be better off with the one who sticks a pony.
I’m in the “buy in the states” camp, too. Lots of horses here who would tick the boxes you mention, and they don’t have to cost an arm and a leg. Also, given their good horseflesh and relatively weak dollar, Canada is becoming a great place to shop these days.