This virus is unlike anything we’ve seen before. Top epidemiologists are still racing to learn more about it.
It’s unpredictable - it’s mutating - and we don’t even know with any degree of certainty all of the ways in which
it can spread. There is now some concern that it has become airborne.Perhaps the most dangerous aspect of this virus is that a person can carry it and infect others while having no clue they have it themselves. I liken it to a land mine field. We don’t know where the mines are - so if you decide to go in there, you have no way of knowing whether you’ll step on one or not - and if you do step on one, no certainty that you’ll survive with mild symptoms, severe ones - or death. We’re not going to see the end of this until there is a vaccine, and though companies are working furiously on trying to develop one as we speak, we’re still about a year or so away from having one that we know will be effective. So it strikes me as
extremely foolhardy to develop a cavalier attitude toward this. If people don’t want to take it seriously, then the virus itself will teach its own lessons.
Please stay safe. It’s not worth the risk.
The new data that a person can be infected with it twice (and be sick twice) is very concerning. Also the data coming back about kids. Who cares if requires comorbidities to be fatal in most individuals, still freaking scary stuff.
As a volunteer I also say a vaccine and much testing.
This is a great article on how to assess the risk of airborne transmission in various situations. It was written by a biologist, not an epidemiologist, but even the epidemiologists are learning something new every day about this virus.
Thank YOU! I agree the elderly population should be protected in every way possible… it was foolhardy for Cuomo (or was it Deblasio? or both?) in New York to insist that COVID patients be placed in nursing home facilities. An almost certain death sentence for those poor old folks, placing more stress on them, their caregivers and their families. My Dad went through a CDIF outbreak in his nursing home. For several days (weeks?) that wing of the facllity was on lockdown and visits were discouraged. Heartbreaking to think of the old folks and their families who have not been able to visit with their loved ones.
Herd immunity will be an aid in controlling this disease but now that this evil genie is out of the bottle, it won’t be put back any time soon. We’re going to have to live with it, same ase we’ve learned to live with the Plague, smallpox, measles, malaria and all the other ills of humanity.
Well, we learned to deal with smallpox by eliminating it, so there’s that.
Yeeesss…but we still have the common cold, seasonal flu and the heartbreak of psoriasis.
I’m still waiting for evidence that herd immunity can be achieved. We don’t have the data yet to know if surviving COVID-19 gives any immunity or for how long. My thought process might change if we knew getting the virus would lead to long-term immunity. (Or it might not – the side effects are wild.)
My horse is retired, so I wasn’t showing this year anyway. Theoretically, I’d feel pretty comfortable shipping in and showing from the trailer. Volunteering… perhaps not.
Not bad luck. He’s just intelligent. And most of us have switched to online banking, online bill pay, and online chatting.
Intelligent, mature people watch and prepare. I bought everything that I needed for 6 months in January. Everything for my horses, everything for my husband and me. I bought a bidet in January. We filled our freezer and pantry well before others even thought about it. We pick up mail with gloves and set it in the garage for a week. We make our own entertainment. The farrier comes with his assistant, gets the horses, and puts them back. The horses have free access to the barn and pasture, and auto waterers. We have zoom parties once a week with friends and family. I telecommute, and use our insurance company’s telemedicine site. I don’t take prescriptions so I have no need for the drug store.
I am not the only one in my city and outskirts who has done this. A lot of us are self sufficient, innovative thinkers, and determined. We hunt and fish and gather. That’s the way people are in our community. YMMV
Some food for thought and to add to the discussion: it’s not clear yet that our bodies can achieve permanent immunity to COVID-19. Think seasonal flu - you get maybe a year’s worth of immunity from having it, then you have to start all over again either with a flu shot or getting it again. This is typical of other coronaviruses. For us to achieve herd immunity, many many people would have to die as the death rate for this virus is significantly greater than influenza. Also, best guess at this moment is that if herd immunity can be achieved, it will be 2021 at earliest.
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/04/30/herd-immunity-covid-19-coronavirus/
This is some nasty stuff.
Two of which are less deadly, and the third of which is not an infectious disease.
As others have noted, the flu has a 0.1% death rate, and by your numbers, this has a 2% death rate, so that’s substantially different. Also, people are dying who are young and otherwise healthy.
But, let’s assume you get it and don’t die. A coworker of mine, in his early 30s and otherwise healthy, contracted COVID. He had a moderate case and required no hospitalization. However, he still has lung damage that doctors fear/believe will be permanent. So no, he didn’t die, but he’s going to struggle with exercise for a long time, maybe forever. For you, this would make it very hard for you to ride your horse. Would you be ok with that?
This thing reminds me of colic. It can be a little gas colic, and then everything is fine, or it can kill you. Or, anything in-between. I am so surprised at those who are cavalier about getting it, especially when they can spread it around before they have symptoms.
NotGPYet, what was the trigger that caused you to make your preparations? I must admit that I woke up late (in March), because I avoid the news so assiduosly.
Colic is a pretty decent analogy! Same banamine PO and you’ll be fine or you have a necrotic bowel and you’re done.
I think most people are tired of having their lives disrupted, and with that mental (and financial) distress, they aren’t really as worried about others anymore. Feelings of altruism and the “greater good” seem to go away as stress increases. It will be interesting to see what happens as people start moving around more.
I used to work in infectious diseases, so I was aware of a potential threat. Then I saw a video from a scientist saying that a new Deadly corona strain had made a debut in China. I had seen a talk on corona virus as an emerging disease threat, and I decided to be prepared and be safe. Hundreds of thousands of people travel to and from China. Most people don’t use proper hygiene, so I figured it would spread quickly.
There are other emerging diseases out there that may also become a global threat, in particular ones spread through food sources. I’m talking naturally-ocurring disease, not bioterrorism. Sometimes I wish I didn’t know what I know.
I’m still on the side of there might be shows in 2020 but they will be hen’s teeth.
Dressage at Devon just canceled for 2020. For September.
I agree that the colic analogy is apt. And like with colic we should take reasonable precautions, but we don’t avoid all grain, stabling, NSAIDs, any time near sand, etc to avoid that small likelihood of a lethal colic.
I’m trying to decide if we’ll do any events this season. My daughter and I both compete and we have a living quarters trailer with a tiny kitchen and fridge and bathroom. Our state shut down early and our area has had dropping numbers in the hospitals and never had many cases hospitalized in our county, so we’ve been fairly effective at flattening the curve. Our state has started gradually reopening and I’ll probably wait and see if the numbers continue to go down or if there is an uptick before we decide about showing. Our state luckily did consider riding and horse care an essential activity even during the shutdowns and permitted if you could maintain social distancing, and people at our barn have been pretty good about distancing, wearing masks, and coming in shifts.
But colic doesn’t spread from horse to horse.
Let’s ask this question: If a new strain of EHV-1 which was resulting in cases of EHM were making its way around your area, and there wasn’t a vaccine, would you worry? Would you protect your horse by keeping it at the barn? Would you be angry if someone at the barn didn’t practice protocol and introduced the disease to your horse or your horse’s herd?
