@dags is spot on in my experience. I shopped two years ago, and several people in my barn have shopped much more recently.
As a tall rider, I’d like to add that you are less likely to find a deal on the 16.2-17.1ish range. Those are typically most in demand IME.
I am no expert, but having some project management experience, I think about it like the iron triangle. With horses, I think it’s talent, rideability, and soundness/longevity. So things like big eq horses and U25 horses are well into the six figures. They have all the talent and scope for the huge jumps, are adjustable and forgiving and, presumably, quite sound. So then you can say, shorten a leg of the triangle. Get something that is limited in scope, price goes way down. Or something that is complicated and only goes for a perfect ride, or has a nasty spin or something else that makes it less fun to ride. That limits the buyer pool, and makes the price go way down. Or you can find something that goes great, but has a known soundness issue or is say 19 years old, that will also drop the price significantly.
I had a budget of $30k. I wanted to jump as big as possible, but I’m an adult ammy and rideablity was extremely important to. So I bought something older at 15 (less longevity although he is sound as can be), and who only wants to do the 1.15m at this point (slightly less “talented”). He also wouldn’t do for a very timid adult ammy so he’s maybe not 100% on the rideability scale that I’ve made up in my head.
If I had wanted to do the 1.30m with my budget, I could find something that was very low on rideability, for example a baby, or a complete psycho with some underlying soundness issues. Or if I needed something that was 8 or 9 (better longevity), I would have had to sacrifice scope and talent and found a 2’6” horse.
There is a classic joke with horses that everyone wants sane, sound, athletic…but you get to pick two 
I’ve heard it as sane, sound and inexpensive.
It’s worth the price that it is because of supply and demand. 
I show APHA, but occasionally toodle on over to the H/J forum since it’s my background and I still ride fence horses here and there. I cannot believe the prices in either industry right now.
There’s a very nice yearling in my barn right now priced at $60K. It’s going to be the winner anywhere it goes, provided it stays sound until it’s under saddle. The price is lower now because it’s not been proven anywhere, and hasn’t had any formal training. Several members of my barn recently purchased yearlings - all double papered (AQHA and APHA, so they can show both/either circuit) and all good tempered for amateur owners. They paid anywhere from $15K - $45K, depending on the quality of the individual.
Last weekend, I got to see an acquaintance riding around her new horse - a QH she picked up for $200K. It’s not finished in every event, but it’s very nice and young enough to have many miles left. I believe her goal is to spend the year getting it finished and then flip it for a profit.
Then there’s me. I bought a very nice yearling back in October 2022 for $7,500. She’s not “the right” color and she’s not a futurity contender and so she sat on the market for several months. But I wasn’t buying for the early events, I was buying to eventually replace my all around gelding and she’s been perfect for that. If your timeline is flexible enough, you can generally find a good deal.
The things that everyone wants means that they can be more expensive. Takes a joke? Sound and barefoot? Walks down the lines? Uncomplicated point and shoot? Your budget is competing with everyone else’s on the planet.
I will say - I’ve never paid more than $25K for a horse and I refuse to do so. Even if I can. At the end of the day, these are prey animals with brains the size of a walnut who die when their tummy hurts. I refuse to go broke in pursuit of a hobby, and if the difference of $50K in my savings accounts is 2’6’’ vs 3’0’’ then I will live in 2’6’’ land and enjoy the difference six inches makes to my financial freedom. Don’t ever go broke purchasing a horse; I always try to tell people that consider a horse “a big investment”… if you can’t afford to light that money on fire, you can’t afford to spend it on a horse. Good luck!
This is gonna be fun… in a “I would cry but this is my life” kind of moment.
2007 16.3 Dark Bay, 3 small white socks, no face white, Imported Hanoverian Gelding. I bought him as a rising 11 yr old 6 years ago for $13,000 USD + $7800 for shipping and quarantine. He’d done mostly 1.10+ with some 1.20’s scattered in. Finished in the top 10 for a younger horse championship in England. On his record he was better with lower fences. I brought him here and we started off at 1.10 and progressed quickly up the levels. We have competed and won/placed top 3 through 1.35m. He jumps an “11” everytime. He is pretty easy to ride, in the show ring. Even at 17 this year he’d be 6 figures. (Doesn’t mean he’d sell, but for a 1.10m packer…there’s some value)
The ugly step brother (not actually) to the bay horse, my coming 10 yr old KWPN Chestnut 17.1 hand gelding. Imported from England in fall of 2018 as a 4 yr old for roughly $14k USD + $8200 for shipping. Has done next to nothing given the lack of actual time to ride him while working on my big horse. He’s an actual star in the making, but stuck in the role of understudy. He’s bred to death as a jumper but really loves Eventing. To his credit he’s brought home ribbons at everything he’s actually done, but we haven’t done much. He likely will be sold this year and I would expect I will have to make $$$$ concessions due to the lack of a record. But fwiw his initial vetting was pristine. Probably will be stuck in low to mid 5 figures, largely based on his extremely good movement and scope.
6 yr OTTB geld, dark bay, 4 white socks, white on face. Bought for $2k in Nov 2022. Lovely in the barn, seems symptomatic for KS and has other issues that make rehab unlikely to be successful. Largely a pasture puff and will not ever be sold now.
Em
Or flush it down the toilet…
Popping in to say that at the $25k range, you can get what previous posters have said in a Warmblood (2-year-old/unbroke or something with a massive quirk) OR you could get a VERY NICE OTTB/TB. Like, a completely finished, perfect, “any dummy can ride this” horse.
Obviously OTTB’s and even sport-bred TB’s are not the breed du jour at the upper levels of this sport and it can be VERY difficult to compete against the purpose-bred WB’s at the big A shows. And that’s not taking into account the high level riding at those shows, as well.
I personally will never consistently be in the upper levels of this sport due not just to money but also to skill, and that’s totally fine. I didn’t have a NEED for a $50k+ horse, so I went the considerably less expensive TB route.
I paid under $25k for my guy. Green. No show experience at time of purchase. He was doing small courses with a lead change that needed finishing. I didn’t try him out (you might be able to make a deal if you buy off a video). He has TONS of chrome. I think his looks/build plus his sensibility are what contributed to his price tag. I’d pay it again, too!
You didn’t ask for this, but this is something I wish I was able to think about with an unfinished, green horse (I don’t regret buying a green horse/I wanted one and wouldn’t trade mine for the world, but I also just didn’t expect this experience):
It really comes down to your goals and where you see yourself; that’s where you’ll be able to determine your budget. Riding ability counts, too - this sport is so mentally taxing. If you can’t handle green/quirky behavior for a long period of time, don’t buy the green horse because he’s going well at the time. My guy is green, and has been great. HOWEVER - we’ve had a very challenging winter. I think I’ve finally figured him out, but I’d be lying if I said it wasn’t heartbreaking to go from riding small courses to only doing flat work because he started to get fresh as the days got cooler and I haven’t been able to work him much. I can sit his bucks, but would prefer he didn’t throw his body around. We’re trending upward now, but I thought I got an “easy” horse at first when I bought him late spring and went on to have a pretty fabulous summer show season at the local level with him. He humbled me so fast!
Always remember that a $100k horse has the same risk of going dead lame one day as a $1k horse.
One oft ignored point…a fully trained with successful show miles, well built, attractive, at least 15.3 and going TB (off track or unraced) will cost less then a purpose bred WB with the same qualities but is no bargain basement find.
I popped over to this thread out of curiosity only (i used to ride and show H/J but i’m a proud DQ now, and I do some hobby breeding as well 
).
I will also point out as a cautionary tale to anyone considering spending a serious amount of money on a horse over the age of 2, to not only do a PPE but also ask that vet records be disclosed in their entirety. I can’t tell you how many horses i’ve known over the years that, while technically sound and could pass a PPE if done at the right time (i.e. in between various “oopsies”), were CONSTANT sources of headaches and a massive drain on the breeder/owner’s wallet because they always had something wrong with them. Abscesses, ulcers, minor scrapes that caused legs to blow up like balloons, massive random gashes requiring stitches and antibiotics and stall rest, teeth issues, back issues, allergies, a swollen pussy eye, you name it - and while these all may seem “minor”, when they happen constantly it essentially means you have a horse you can ride only 30% of the time, because they’re otherwise confined, in rehab or completely insane from the lack of work and need to be lunged into oblivion before anything can be done. And then as soon as you get into a groove again - bam, another stupid injury.
Food for thought. The PPE is only a small snapshot, and not worth as much as most people think. Some horses are fragile idiots (moreso than the average), and when owners finally get fed up and sell, it’s not something they voluntarily disclose. 
I’d push back that solid 3’ horses that are winning in good company outside of WEF are still $100K+ if they’ll take a joke or get a hack prize. A nice jumping hunter that moves like a sewing machine might be under 85K, but the majority are higher. Ones that can still play in 3’3 or young and can move up to 3’6 would be 150K+
Yeah, this is where it gets tricky. Geography starts to really have an impact and it gets harder to narrow things down to a single price point like “$75K” rather than a more general range that accommodates for things like geography/quality of movement/pretty vs. plain/ease of lead changes et al.
I think for most types I listed, it is quite possible that it will cost more depending on those variables, but unlikely that it will cost less. So, kind of baseline types. That Children’s Hunter I had in mind is “solid” in that it capably jumps 3’. It probably isn’t winning hacks, it’s not likely to win at HITS or equivalent but may sometimes come home with a ribbon (as opposed to WEF), and it’s definitely not stepping up to 3’6" or probably even 3’3". But it’s doing pretty well on, say, Midwest circuits, and maybe makes up for hunter “quality” with sheer consistency. As a Children’s Hunter, it has to take a joke as one of my “baseline” requirements. Almost above all else.
IOW, it doesn’t take much for this solid 3’ horse to become a 90k horse— geography alone could do it. This is where I think having an honest & knowledgeable agent with lots of contacts is extremely beneficial.
I appreciate your insights here. I’m curious, how would you price this horse:
16.2+ WB, 9, 3’6” JR/AO hunter. Places at HITS & WEC in Ohio, will win with the right ride. Not a hack winner but gets a low piece. Not the round, fat, ground-sweeping WB that wins at WEF but a good egg.
I don’t even know anymore lol but I’ll give you an ex of horses I had 2 clients purchase recently that I think are worth it:
Horse 1: 20k 14.2h welsh pony jumper with papers. BEAUTIFUL jump. Super scopey. Was reputably schooling 1.0m with trainer, placing in .85s-.95s with kids at WEC. Horse sized stride, easily does 1-2 stride doubles with normal pace. She is very hot, but no buck or take off so it was easy to teach beginner kid on. Does have run outs with mistakes, but very manageable with coaching and schooling. I love her I think she’s excellent I wish I owned her at that age. Easy to groom and tack up. But she is way too hot for the Hunter ring lol no amount of lunging will ever change that. But has a wow jump that everyone comments on. I think she’s scopey enough for the 1.10m but probably not brave enough. But it’s okay she doesn’t need to jump that high.
Horse 2: 15k: Ottb with long long USEF record in .55s-.90s. Almost always class winner, no stop no spook at shows, but pretty spooky at home tbh. I enjoy schooling her a lot I find her very easy and honest but a little tough for a kid moving up from an easy pony. Said pony is easy at home shows and at home but not nice at A rateds. But so far in 6 shows all double clears in the .65s except for maybe one or two poles tops. Her spooks at home are rough and explosive for the kid but she’s learning to deal with them. But overall I think it’s a good price for a horse that always always gets the job done and is fast but never strong.
So now I’m curious, how do the pony hunters fall in these price ranges? Just feeding my own curiosity.
With a really good vetting (and USEF record to back your claims)- High 5’s. Maybe low 6 if sold by the right program and it’s really good looking with a comfy canter that’s easy to see a distance from.
In my neck of the woods this is likely a low 6 figure animal if it’s truly a junior or Ammy ride. A 3’6 horse that can be ridden by a non pro and ribbon consistently has value, even if not the hack winner. I say that because even a somewhat average 3’ horse goes for 50-60k around me, so if it’s able to do not just the 3’3 but the 3’6, add some $$$ on the price tag.
Thank you, this is very helpful!
I hesitate to price a specific horse without video, but the numbers from @HJdaydream and @blondewithchrome feel right: ~125k, give or take ~30K depending on location, representation, sense of humor, overall impression/good looks, canter/step/lead changes, and the like. Could even be 180k in certain barns, or 80k in more remote areas where the 3’6" market is not that deep.
Thanks! This feedback is very helpful!
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