Will he grow?

I recently (3 months ago) purchased a long 3 year old. Due to Covid and market conditions, I did not see him in person prior to purchase. I had video and a thorough pre-purchase exam.

Overall, he is pretty much as described and I am pleased with him. BUT (!) He was advertised as 16.1+. The vet that did the PPE estimated him as 16.1+. When he arrived, he is closer to 15.3-16h (measured with height tape, we do not have an official wooden stick).

My question is, what are my chances that he will mature to 16.2+? I was told that his dam is 17.1, sire is 16.3 and full sister finished at 16.3.

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Ooh. That is tough. Geldings “often” grow for YEARS… most til 6-7, but I had one weirdo who I KNOW grew an inch the winter of his 9th year.

He will probably gain an inch or so… maybe.

But I have had some early maturers be done at 4 and then just fill out too… so you never know… until you know.

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There’s no guarantee, of course, but I have the opposite problem with my recently purchased 3 year old gelding. He was 14.3 when I picked him up. My hope has/had been that he’d top out at 15 hands and he’s already sticking at 15.1 and 1/2 inch. I have to go back 4 generations to find anyone over 15 hands in his pedigree. As a breeder, most of my purebreds and cross breds continued to grow and put on a little height well into their 5/6 year. We’re guessing this guy will end up a solid 15.2 (hopefully that’s all).

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Try the string test. The one from elbow to ground and swinging ground end up past withers. I have found it pretty accurate. Within a half inch accurate. Surprisingly. *The withers are the last part of the spine to mature, if I recall accurately.

PS. Those horse cloth tape measures are usually inaccurate and so are many wooden/metal horse measuring sticks.

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I purchased a five-year-old who was just barely 16.1 and wore a 78 inch blanket. He is now just turned eight. 16.3,1/2. Growing out of an 81 inch blanket.

I also have had a gelding who was 15.3 at 4 1/2 years . Ended up at 16.2 by 7 years.

Do a string test.

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I did both versions of the string test. The elbow to ergot came out around 17h. The coronet band to knee came out around 16.5". So both tests seem to indicate he has a significant amount of more growing to do. Will be interesting to see how he develops.