Will Trump place tariffs on imported horses?

[poltroon]

There’s no rationale for it at all, it’s just about trying to be a bully. So applying logic to it is a lost cause.

If there’s a tariff on horses then that seems to have some really ugly potential additional headaches for anyone crossing the border for a horse show too, either Americans going north or Canadians coming south, in terms of paperwork to prove that it’s not for a sale.

Of course, in the grand scheme of things, a much smaller disruption than the enormous increase in prices for building materials, feed, fertilizer, cars, and all the rest, and will probably have worldwide implications. Even temporary tariffs or uncertainty creates huge and expensive disruption.

[kenyarider]

You are wrong. NAFTA is dead now that he’s done the 25 percent tariff taking effect on Tuesday. The northern part of this country gets most of its fuel from Canada. And yes, your avacados and Tequila will be badly affected.

[poltroon]

And building on my comment, I think all of this has the potential for huge shocks to the horse industry, which is basically all discretionary, luxury spending. Some people are going to lose their jobs, others will see costs go up unexpectedly, unfathomably, and uncontrollably, and that means everyone who isn’t sitting on enormous personal savings is probably going to get extremely cautious in their spending. Which means that the first places they will cut will be going to competitions. Given how many events are hanging on by a thin financial thread we might lose several and never get them back.

[OzarksRider]

@Scribbler

I’m fascinated watching this from Canada.

I envy you watching this from Canada. Wish I could watch it from someplace other than where I’m at.

[Night_Flight]

@kenyarider

You are wrong. NAFTA is dead now that he’s done the 25 percent tariff taking effect on Tuesday. The northern part of this country gets most of its fuel from Canada. And yes, your avacados and Tequila will be badly affected.

I believe Scribbler was speaking as a Canadian, wondering if the existing agreement between Canada and Mexico will continue as usual.

[Scribbler]

It’s not NAFTA it’s got another name now.

The trade agreement has not been repealed. It has been over ridden by a declaration of national emergency that allows the President to unilaterally impose tarrifs without consulting Congress or re-negotiating a treaty. It allows him to break the treaty he signed in 2020.

Once the emergency is declared over, the treaty will be back in effect.

There is also some kind of study group on international trade going to make recommendations going forward but not immediately.

The interesting legal questions are:

1. Was this a valid national emergency?
2. Does the President have the power to declare anything he wants an emergency and border incursion?
3. If the answer to 1 and 2 is not a resounding yes, is there any part of the constitutional checks and balances that can.stop him?
4. If the answer to 3 is not a resounding no, is there the will left among folks on the other branches to act on improper use of power?

I don’t know the answer to these questions, and maybe no one knows for sure

I do not have deep sympathy in general for the auto industry though I love my F250. But I think they are being treated very badly in being encouraged to develop their production lines across borders, under a clear FTA, and then have the rug pulled out from under their feet.

Obviously it’s business as usual between Canada and Mexico but we don’t share a border, so we get less produce.

I would add that I don’t see a long life for policies that damage the profits of key big industries in the USA such as the auto industry. I would imagine most CEOs and CFOs across a spectrum of industry are having a fit right now, but perhaps also wary about how much they can say publicly without repercussions.

[Night_Flight]

And in answer to Scribbler’s question about Mexican produce, I just listened to a professor of economics on the CBC who said increasing fruit and vegetable imports from Mexico might not be a viable option since generally they would be shipped through the US. He said sea shipping would likely be the alternative, which would increase the cost to get the produce to Canada anyway.

[Scribbler]

Oh unfortunately that makes perfect sense. I had been imagining produce being flown. Yeah, trucking will be blocked.

[Horsecrazy3]

NAFTA no longer exists. It was replaced with USMCA during Trump’s first term as President. USMCA does still exist. Trump had to enact emergency measures (Canada’s 1% fentanyl border smuggling problem and low numbers of illegals crossing over our border to the USA) to get around the USMCA terms of agreement. Scribbler is a Canadian like I am.

[kenyarider]

I hope so, but our Democrats in Congress seem remarkably quiet. He’s gathering control over all aspects of government and who knows where it will go. I am very afraid for this country and, frankly, the rest of the world. As the saying goes, when you reap the whirlwind. . . . . It doesn’t appear that there is any one or any institution that can stop him and when he finally dies, Vance will be worse. We have elected tyrants.

[Scribbler]

@Horsecrazy3

NAFTA no longer exists. It was replaced with USMCA during Trump’s first term as President. USMCA does still exist. Trump had to enact emergency measures (Canada’s 1% fentanyl border smuggling problem and low numbers of illegals crossing over our border to the USA) to get around the USMCA terms of agreement. Scribbler is a Canadian like I am.

Yes! I was meaning to Google the name of the current trade agreement! I was around when NAFTA was a new idea and rather controversial in Canada. Btw even with the free trade agreement there’s a lot of tariff bickering over soft wood lumber exports from Canada to the USA.

[Scribbler]

I think the idea is do maximum damage especially to the checks and balances before anyone can catch their breath. Then deal with the consequences. I don’t think any other presidential candidate would be this uncaring of consequences. I don’t know if Trump has an actual endgame but the Project 2025 people behind him do.

[Horsecrazy3]

Soft wood has been and always will be bickered over. I don’t think that industry ever made it into the new trade agreement.

[kenyarider]

He makes Nixon look honest.

[OverandOnward]

@canuckeventer

AND we will NEVER become the 51st state!

OK but think about this … how about electoral votes for each Canadian province individually, by the population meter (re-calibrated to include Canada’s 41 +/- million pop. total) …

… and maybe that amounts to each province having the same electoral votes as Wyoming, but hey 10 Wyomings = 30, so that’s something in the electoral count, isn’t it?

Let’s chuck Greenland in there too … now we are up to 11 Wyoming’s = 33 votes electoral votes.

If Canada and Greenland block vote together, that’s more electoral votes than any state other than California and Texas! Ha! Look out, America!

Plus no more tariff barriers on Canadian horse care necessities such as shavings, hay, etc.!

At this point, Canada + Greenland block votes red or blue as they prefer, and that could be the margin of difference in 2028. Especially if they can convince the tilt states to join them in their vote.

How about it, are we getting somewhere in these - ‘negotiations’?

[just kidding y’all ]

[canuckeventer]

@OverandOnward

yes, there have been those discussions - in jest, of course.

[poltroon]

@kenyarider

I hope so, but our Democrats in Congress seem remarkably quiet. He’s gathering control over all aspects of government and who knows where it will go. I am very afraid for this country and, frankly, the rest of the world. As the saying goes, when you reap the whirlwind. . . . . It doesn’t appear that there is any one or any institution that can stop him and when he finally dies, Vance will be worse. We have elected tyrants.

It’s remarkable that there isn’t bipartisan concern around all the removal of norms, rules, processes, ethical obligations, etc that have been the bedrock of the US for 200 years. Oh well.

[callyhan]

As a Canadian, the fact you are joking around about this is disgusting. I’ll honestly never think of the US the same again after this.

[gradytb]

So to those posting about immigration and fentanyl, just as a point of fact, it might not be fentanyl coming in through Canada, But fentanyl isn’t the only threat. “Of the 410 terror suspects stopped at a U.S. land border crossing in the past year [ANY US crossing] , 87 per cent came from Canada, according to data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection.” SOURCE: https://nationalpost.com/opinion/canada-yielding-87-per-cent-of-all-terror-suspects-stopped-at-u-s-border-crossings

I doubt that Irish horses are a threat, but you have to realize that terrorists bent on causing issues here are not stupid. The Mexico routes get the greatest scrutiny for good reason (I live in South Texas). Of course serious terrorists are going to use a different, less-scrutinized route. Just here, we’ve seen illegals from Irag, Yemen, Syria, Iran, Pakistan, and other non-Latin and non-South American countries be apprehended. Some have boasted in front of news cameras that “we will hear from them soon” in 911-level threats. So get mad all you want, but President Trump has pretty damn good reasons for what he’s doing. And the US has had little to no cooperation in stemming any of this from Mexico and Canada until now. This is a bigger story than what is presented here, so things need to play out before we get too crazy over it and can draw conclusions.

[Virginia_Horse_Mom]

There is substantial fentanyl coming from Canada. It’s just that people keep on pointing to statistics related to fentanyl seized at the border. That’s a fraction of a total amount that is flowing over the border.

If you look at the volume of trucking coming from Canada, and look at some other aspects of the logistics involved… it’s clear there is significant vulnerability for the US when it comes to cross border traffic and drugs.

And yes… Mexico is a serious issue as well. Probably way more drugs coming into ver that border.

But whatever. Apparently there are multiple calls scheduled this week between all three North American leaders. Hopefully the tariffs won’t last long. And hopefully there will be announcements regarding cooperation to interrupt the flow of fentanyl. The stuff is awful and it’s a massive human tragedy.