I had what might be a similar experience when I started leasing my 2nd Fjord 2 1/2 yrs ago. Moved from southern Michigan to northern Michigan in April (similar climates as MA to VT move; getting snow pellets right now.). He had not been clipped or blanketed. Had a decent coat of summer hair, but didn’t grow much of a winter coat the first 2 winters.
He is an extremely easy keeper and a bit of a “chunky monkey.” Similar management to your QH: daytime turnout on full grass, with a muzzle though, as his weight must be managed. Hay, in slow feed net, in stall at night and during winter turnout. No grain just ration balancer and flax along with some supplements.
This year for the first time, he is growing a bit of a winter coat, although he was much slower to start than my other Fjord who is already a yak.
Two maybe important things:
First, I think the added flax has helped the quality of his hair coat in general (beautiful and glossy this summer), Second, this past spring we discovered he has a low thyroid hormone level and is now on a low dose of Thyro-L. I wonder if this influenced his coat growth. This guy also has sweet itch and although we have been able to combat that better and better each year, this summer he took a huge jump in seeing symptoms reduced. When he did have flares, he recovered from the skin lesions MUCH faster.
Given your horse’s age, you may want to start testing some hormone levels. My guy is early teens. Vet and I decided to test thyroid since we were monitoring my 23 yr old, who is IR, pre-cushings, and also low thyroid. Given the breed propensity for some of these issues, we were just looking for a baseline when we discovered the low thyroid.
Unless he is truly shivering or looking/acting like he is cold, I wouldn’t worry too much. Mine take some pretty brutal winter weather without blankets and don’t seem to care one bit. Biggest reason I would (and only occasionally do) use a sheet/blanket is to keep them dry when we get that really nasty cold sleet during the transition months (mostly November and March). Soaking wet and cold more of a problem than just dry cold. They can use the sheds to get out of the wind or snow, but rarely do.
Leaving him without a blanket is probably more likely to entice his body to grow a thicker coat, but really it’s day-length regulated, not so much temperature sensitive.