Worried about the supply of sufficient horses with the potential for Grand Prix

[QUOTE=Donella;7843003]
Interestingly, the calibre of high performance horses has grown exponentially in the last 15 years. Clearly breeders are doing something right. …[/QUOTE]

questions:

what do you mean with calibre?
physical size/weight or performance as such?
if the latter is the case, how do you define performance horse?
by scores reached in GP?
like 80+ percent are more often seen today than it used to be?

if that is what you mean, then
a) your wording needs to be corrected from presnet tense “peolpe are doing” to past tense, people DID s.th. right back than, and
b) the answer is:
yes, of course. with ongoing specialisation in dressage and jumping horses have become a lot better - and they should, since that is what thoughtful breeding is all about.
it is what breeding progress (“zucht fortschritt”) is supposed to add to the equasion:
next generation(s) should ideally add value and progrees over ancestors.

breeding progress should be the initial goal of “breeding”.
everything else (“fast market”) is simple reproduction or multiplication.

however, todays 80+ scoring horses (of the last 15 years) have been bred 15 years ago - most of the sires (and dams) are not breeding anymore.
question is:
how will our current breeding decisions look in 15 years? will nowadays crosses succeed as well as those from 15 years ago do today?

time will tell.
and i am sure some will. as quality descends from mass and from any given population ther ewill always be 10% of high quality output.
and nature has it that these ten percent will be evenly spread over the production, thus, some successful horses will eventually descend from “popular” breedings, too.
but i am also sure that the stellar performers we refer to in 15 years will not necessarily descend from common “flavour of the day” breedings.
as most of the best GP horses in the world descend from coincidental nicks.
this is true for all disciplines, race horses, jumper, dressage and eventer.
i doubt the breeder of totilas ever planned the record GP horse he turned in to. even when he was perfomring at the WEGverden age 5 noone did. (ever heard of damsire glendale before?)
it was more a question of gribaldi being available nearby.
same is true for bella rose (ever heard of damsire cacir before?).
legolas (ever heard of sire laomedon before?).
valegro (ever heard of damsire gershwin before?)
and so on…

i think those same 15 years might cover it well.
maybe it started a little earlier.
if i had to put a name on it i would say: sandro hit.
having said that, this doesn’t mean SH is responsible for today’s shift to foal market alone, but his appearance sure helped to shift focus towards a foal market in the first place.
his appearance, however, also coincides with one major other factor:
the popularity of the internet and with it the tool to “remote” breeding.

before the internet people had no other chance but go out and see the horse in flesh. today, many people have never seen sire or relatives of the foals they are planning to breed.
so internet certainly is a relevant factor.

another factor is frozen insemination vs live coverage.
this probably changed the world of breeding another 15 years before the internet started but it’s multiplication factors stayed within given limits of the “established” horse breeding world. it didn’t create a new type of breeder as much as the internet did. a desired stallion or or any of its progeny creating demand for this stallion still needed to be seen in the real world in order to create demand for the stallion.
i.e. rubinstein - 20 years before SH and most certainly one of the first stallions of high popularity. yet, “pictures only” were the most derived marketing you got from him.
to become a fan, you needed to have been at the scene.

makes sense?

however, todays 80+ scoring horses (of the last 15 years) have been bred 15 years ago - most of the sires (and dams) are not breeding anymore.
question is:
how will our current breeding decisions look in 15 years? will nowadays crosses succeed as well as those from 15 years ago do today?

Yes. And in 15 years, that is going to be the end of many of the best breeding mares. We will be left with the next generation of mares that are bred to stallion of the day. There will be no going back.
Failed riding horses are not a problem as much as the overall quality of the mare base. I predict jumper mares might get even more valuable if this continues.

[QUOTE=Donella;7843003]
Interestingly, the calibre of high performance horses has grown exponentially in the last 15 years. Clearly breeders are doing something right. [/QUOTE]

I would agree with this, but I think the point is this: how were the top scoring international GP horses valued [B]as foals or young horses (2-3 yrs old)??

[/B]Did anyone say “WOW!! What a great animal!! Look at his talent & ability!” And was that talent for GP actually VISIBLE at that age?Conversely, how many of those top selling auction horses went on to actually become GP horses?

I would love to look at the data for the last 10-15yrs and see, but that would take a ton of research and access to stats that I just don’t have. It’s doable, but not for me. Still, I think it would be invaluable research for breeders.

The “disconnect” that I see is that most of those top selling auction horses actually DO NOT go on to be outstanding GP horses, although I have no firm data to back it up.

Here’s another “disconnect” between breeders/registry officials & “real life”: per KWPN, their records show that the most successful GP horses have shorter legs rather than longer. And yet the licensing committees continue to “push” these leggy stallions by rewarding them at licensing and breeders are lining up to use them.

Now, even a cursory knowledge of horse conformation & dynamics (not to mention a basic awareness of what a GP horse has to do physically), is fairly clear that “sitting” is far more difficult for a leggy type horse. If you look at horses that have to really work off their hindquarters (like reiners & cutting horses), they are never “leggy” (nor tall, for that matter), so this isn’t rocket science.

So it seems that even the stallion selection officials are “disconnected” to what it takes to produce GP stock.

I will be long dead before we know how this will effect the future of dressage breeding, but I fear that WB breeders are making the very same mistake I’ve seen in Arabs, QHs, Akhal Tekes and other breeds: breeding for “pretty” as opposed to actual function.

[QUOTE=vandenbrink;7843151]
Because foals by Stallions Du Jour sell better…and faster, especially if you’re looking to sell them really young. I even think that at inspections your foal from the latest greatest new stallion will get a 2nd and 3rd look from the judging team. [/QUOTE]

And again I have to ask: Why?

Why would buyers be so enamoured with an unproved horse from unproven stock?

[QUOTE=stoicfish;7843740]
Yes. And in 15 years, that is going to be the end of many of the best breeding mares. We will be left with the next generation of mares that are bred to stallion of the day. There will be no going back.
Failed riding horses are not a problem as much as the overall quality of the mare base. I predict jumper mares might get even more valuable if this continues.[/QUOTE]

true.
but i also forgot one addtl factor:
breeders.

the breeders from those horses 15 years ago are not there anymore.
horse breeding used to be a culture thign (farmers, long developed damlines).
sport horses used to be bred by farming background only.
this has changed dramatically.
i remember a statistic 15 years ago a stallion owner reffered to (actually, it was the lady who runs the warendorf state stud, susanne rimkus) and she said:
“we need to be aware that more than 30% of our breeders only breed one mare. most of these breeders are not farmers anymore but “hobby”/amateur breeders who enjoy to have a single broodmare boarded at some place and breed a single foal per year. we need to focus and educate this new generation of breeders.”

this was only 15 years ago.
today, the single-mare/hobby breeder dominates the scene (at least in germany, but i suppose that is a global trend).
a statistic published last week states that more than 60% of breeders are “hobby breeders” (they asked explicitely what you are:
hobby breeder, farmer background, professional) while 20% are professionals (stallion owners, studs) and only 10% of breeders come from traditional farming background.

while i can’t comment on the professionals (some may primarily go with the fast money flow to run the business) the loss of farming background (traditional knowledge of damline heritage) certainly sets another new tone in breeding culture.
so does the remaining mare base applied.

[QUOTE=Kyzteke;7843758]
And again I have to ask: Why?

Why would buyers be so enamoured with an unproved horse from unproven stock?[/QUOTE]

So as a buyer.
I will never have the time to reach above PSG. But I have a little filly with a great trot because it looks great without me doing a lot of work.
All the stallion shows, the horses are paraded around at the trot to music. Very enticing.
The same reason why people pay so much for a foal, they represent the “dream”, the excitement around what could be. The fancy trot makes people think they are closer to that dream. And it is the lack of experience that allows them to believe it. The pro’s do not get excited about that, because they know there is so much more.
The experienced people in the industry that are buying the 100k 3 yr old with the trot? They can turn around and market that stallion for the next 3 yrs before the reality of his limitations catches up. Then he goes only to the breeding shed because there are many people who do not worry about a stallions competition record.

This is SUCH a timely thread for me as I make some 2015 breeding choices. I have an older type, older lines AWESOME mare I have the chance to get embryos from. In looking at stallions I was immediately jaw dropped over some of the young stallions in Europe. But I kept digging, and digging and watching videos over and over again, looking up offspring and watching videos. I watched every online auction offerings on youtube that I could find. At least 150 horses…

None of those young, flashy, leggy, auction horse making stallions are on my list any more. The foals are pretty, but the ones old enough to ride are NOT what I would pick out as a solid, fluid moving young horse obviously capable of staying sound and happy to the FEI dressage level. Mostly I was unhappy with the elasticity of their backs (which is MISERABLY hard to discern by the way they are ridden in those videos). I was totally smitten with a few at first, but when the WOW wears off I could actually SEE what I needed to evaluate.

PLUS when I pray for a filly so that there could be future beyond this generation, I want her to carry well proven blood and my preference is a heavier “older” type mare with some freaking BONE.

I am a trainer by profession, not a breeder to make money… but I have had to justify my passing over some of the young flashy studs to some friends who just can’t get it. It makes me feel like I might BE crazy, so THANK YOU for this thread right now!

[QUOTE=stoicfish;7843831]
So as a buyer.
I will never have the time to reach above PSG. But I have a little filly with a great trot because it looks great without me doing a lot of work.
All the stallion shows, the horses are paraded around at the trot to music. Very enticing.
The same reason why people pay so much for a foal, they represent the “dream”, the excitement around what could be. The fancy trot makes people think they are closer to that dream. And it is the lack of experience that allows them to believe it. The pro’s do not get excited about that, because they know there is so much more.
The experienced people in the industry that are buying the 100k 3 yr old with the trot? They can turn around and market that stallion for the next 3 yrs before the reality of his limitations catches up. Then he goes only to the breeding shed because there are many people who do not worry about a stallions competition record.[/QUOTE]

Wow…what an honest post. Scary & depressing, but very (I fear) accurate.

^^^^ lol

I was speaking from the firstperson of many buyers I have met and what I have observed.

However, I do have a filly, with an average trot, that will be more horse than I need. I like the old style that are less flashy but with the power. She is W-line, over R-line, nothing flashy, but I think that W-line is going to teach me some patience. I have Donks, so I feel like I am qualified :lol:

Ps - the canter was what impressed me about the filly. She also walks like a hussy.

BTW, I would like to stress Fannie Mae’s comment about needing “mass” to produce quality. This is a tried & true fact of breeding…any discipline, any animal. You must produce alot of animals to get a small % of “great” ones.

So many people on this board (and in life) don’t seem to understand this simple rule of breeding.

That doesn’t mean one should breed indiscriminately, but the point is even the most talented breeders with the best stock still will produce more “misses” than “hits”.

[QUOTE=stoicfish;7845577]
^^^^ lol

I was speaking from the firstperson of many buyers I have met and what I have observed.

However, I do have a filly, with an average trot, that will be more horse than I need. I like the old style that are less flashy but with the power. She is W-line, over R-line, nothing flashy, but I think that W-line is going to teach me some patience. I have Donks, so I feel like I am qualified :lol:

Ps - the canter was what impressed me about the filly. She also walks like a hussy.[/QUOTE]

Yes, I realize you were speaking that way. The depressing part is that my observations are similar to yours…I was hoping I was just being snobby or something.

As for the W-line, as the proud owner of a Weltmeyer daughter, who I often (lovingly) refer to as ‘You #@%! %L#*&!!!’, I can tell you that I firmly believe Weltmeyer’s & Donks are probably related, but someone just figured out how to shorten the ears so we don’t notice.:winkgrin:

Her first daughter to be started u/s bucked like a bronc for 5 mins when just the surcingle was put on!!! The first time she was shown in hand she objected to her braids so much she tried to throw herself down on the ground in front of the judge!!

My Rubinstein granddaughter OTOH produces foals that would be embarrassed to buck even if you set loose a flock of birds under her. They simply would not think of doing this. Her foals go to ammies & old women…the Weltmeyer mare’s foals go to pros who want some spark.

Hopefully your filly is somewhere in the middle.