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WTF Are We Doing?

To Rayers, curious, in looking at that document it led me to a USEA page were the speed study had been completed. I read this

GPS Speed StudyThis study has been completed!
Spearheaded by former international event rider, John Staples, and Dr. Reed Ayers, upper level event rider and a Research Assistant Professor at the Colorado School of Mines (Department of Metallurgical and Materials Science), this study aims to monitor horses and riders on the cross-country course to determine the speeds at which the courses are being negotiated. Some surprising data has already come to light as to the excessive speeds some riders have achieved in order to complete courses inside the time. While the study will be ongoing throughout the year coaches have already been able to use the data to educate students on the importance of pace.

Are the results public?
Has any conclusion come from the study that alters how teams ride at the top level of the sport? Jim WOfford had written a good article about speed and I just wondered if his thoughts meshed with that of the study.

Was this not the study that determined in order to make time some riders were travelling at 900 mpm at some parts of the course?? At Prelim?

[QUOTE=RAyers;8156592]
OK, then now let’s really dive into the numbers:

  1. You have a 1 in 5 shot of s SERIOUS injury if you have a rotational fall, a 1 in 20 for nonrotational and a 1 in 50 for simply falling off.

  2. You have a 1 in 10,000 shot of dying for every start and a 1 in 500 shot at a serious injury for every start.

In other words, at least one person for every horse trial with more than 500 entries will go home in an ambulance.

Would you take this odds with you car? Your cell phone? How about your doctor or surgeon?

Is that acceptable? How about if it was your turn? Your kid’s turn?

Do you think this rate works in other sports? Would you enjoy NASCAR, NHRA, NFL, NBA, NHL, even MMA etc. with those statistics?

Coming from a research hospital POV as well as one who works with high risk manufacturing, I think this falls in the D grade range in terms of level of effort. Why, do you ask?

We have a reported 1% infection rate in the OR (1 in 100 shot of having an infection develop as the result of surgery), do you know how many studies we are doing to work out how to get this to 1 in 10,000? And this is not even for high risk patients or those that include fatalities.

It’s about QUALITY. If this sport wants to grow, then they need a quality product.[/QUOTE]

But how about comparing those statistical results to others. Yes
at an elite level of sport
the statistical risk I do not believe is that different from other elite sports.

That is the discussion I’d be interested in. 1in 10,000 is a lower risk than I was expecting for an elite sport. Yes 1 in 5 serious injury in a rotation is significant BUT your risk of a rotational fall is MUCH less likely to happen. AND as result of this 
 more effort has been done to try and reduce rotational falls. More needs to be done of course but an educated discussion is more constructive.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rider_deaths_in_motorcycle_racing

And anything that’s done HAS to start at the lower levels, especially when it comes to enforcing DR penalties, and longer term consequences. I jump judged and helped with the w/u ring at a local event a few weeks ago, and was appalled by what I saw with the riders at T and P. The lower levels were the usual mix of greenies (horses and riders) and were in the appropriate spot for their abilities. The PT/Novice riders, as a group, actually looked GREAT.

Above that in the T and P groups? A couple of beautiful standout rides, and some very scary stuff. Jump judges were repeatedly calling in that “Rider X is out of control” and no one had the guts to pull them up, or issue a DR. A couple came in so fast and so flat to the jump I was at, and then hit it, I thought we were going to end up with a rotational fall
 nothing to do with the jump itself (simple standard type angled vertical with an easy approach- not complicated whatsoever) or the course, but all about the riding.

[QUOTE=Ibex;8156650]

Above that in the T and P groups? A couple of beautiful standout rides, and some very scary stuff. Jump judges were repeatedly calling in that “Rider X is out of control” and no one had the guts to pull them up, or issue a DR. A couple came in so fast and so flat to the jump I was at, and then hit it, I thought we were going to end up with a rotational fall
 nothing to do with the jump itself (simple standard type angled vertical with an easy approach- not complicated whatsoever) or the course, but all about the riding.[/QUOTE]

This is true too. I think rotationals at the lower levels are more common than we think. Last fall the girl who left the box right before me had a rotational at the 3rd fence, it was dusk and I am sure the horse could not see the top of the fence. I was held for over an hour while she was ambulanced away. Did anyone go out and check the fence was still safe? Was there a report on the accident? If there was who ever hears about it? I still wonder if that girl was seriously injured or not there. You don’t hear because it’s just a lower level horse trial.

[QUOTE=kmartin85;8156346]
Then I suggest not posting this topic of thread on an internet forum and keeping your discussions with your close friends who share the same thoughts as you.

I don’t see the point in crying for change for people who choose to put themselves at risk.[/QUOTE]

I suggest you read a few history books and see what happens when because a few (yes a few as the ULs are a small fracition of the ENTIRE SPORT) people do not question or see that something is very wrong, no one else does. Is that where you get off thinking the world is a better place by not sharing & discussing; that everyhting would be A OK in the world if everyone agreed with everything all the time? Thats an inefficient backwards mindset you got going there. YOU are everything that is wrong with the sport. The culture of indifference.

People always need others policing and regulating because a self-regulating society does not work. Really, I suggest you read some history books.

[QUOTE=JER;8156546]
Hello, Culture of Indifference.[/QUOTE]

This whole argument about “Culture of Indifference” is absolutely ridiculous! Seriously people? Do you think ANYONE is indifferent??? What are they supposed to do? Hang out with you?

People address the issue of serious accidents in various ways. Some contribute $$ to the those working on solutions. Others do their own research on how to be safer for themselves personally. Others go out and volunteer (in a nice accommodating manner, not in an austere derogatory one) to be part of the research, and others sit on their arses coming up with lists and accusing anyone who does not agree with them of being okay with rider deaths.

C’mon people. Cut the negative derogatory “everyone who does not play with me is indifferent
 or incompetent
 or rude
 or whatever.”

And for those who keep saying, “Do something, do something!!!” then apply those words to yourselves. Actively involve yourself in some way other than trashing those who take issue with your statements, or pointing fingers at the “Powers” saying they do not care, they are incompetent, they are indifferent, or golly gee, they were rude to me.

Yes we need more research and we need team players
 and not a culture of finger pointing, naysaying, and bashing anyone who dares advocate for an alternate perspective.

"You have a 1 in 10,000 shot of dying for every start and a 1 in 500 shot at a serious injury for every start. "
1 in 10000 starts you have a chance of dying does not sound very good to me–when you consider how many events have 500 starters a weekend-- it does not take too many weekends in the usa and or gobally to get to 10,000. And that would be total starts? what are the statistics for preliminary and up --does it change- up or down?

Most of us are.

So how about you add - don’t assume you know what people are doing to make changes to support the safety of our sport to that list.

[QUOTE=omare;8156687]
"You have a 1 in 10,000 shot of dying for every start and a 1 in 500 shot at a serious injury for every start. "
1 in 10000 starts you have a chance of dying does not sound very good to me–when you consider how many events have 500 starters a weekend-- it does not take too many weekends in the usa and or gobally to get to 10,000. And that would be total starts? what are the statistics for preliminary and up --does it change- up or down?[/QUOTE]

That is pretty much how we have come to the rate of a death a month this year.

[QUOTE=Beam Me Up;8156366]
There were stats posted in another thread on the past ~5 years and there had not been an increasing trend. It would be more interesting to see older stats, 80s/90s etc, if those are available.

It does appear that our tolerance for risk in the sport is declining. And accidents are reported more widely.

Everyone wants eventing to be safer, but I think the real issue is that nobody knows what to do
Most of the changes eventing has made in the name of safety have not been popular.
There are ideas thrown around, but no real consensus as to where the problem lies, or which changes might actually make a difference.[/QUOTE]

One of the reasons the changes made in the name of safety have not been popular is that they have been made in the NAME of safety only. There’s no research or data to back up why a change should improve safety, there’s no formal investigation process for when an incident occurs, there’s nothing. The people who are well respected in fields that are relevant to understanding the safety concerns, like Reed Ayers, have basically given up at this point because they were faced with so much frustration when they tried to do anything useful. (This has all been discussed here on COTH before, you can search and find posts from the relevant people about their experiences.)

Right now it really seems like TPTB are more interested in “safety theater” (like air vests that have no proper data to show what they do in various types of falls but hey, people FEEL better wearing one) than in actually assessing the safety of the sport and figuring out how to make concrete improvements.

It really doesn’t matter if things right now are worse than they were in the past or the same - it isn’t acceptable risk to many people now, and that is an issue that should be addressed properly. That isn’t happening.

[QUOTE=Jealoushe;8156690]
Most of us are.

So how about you add - don’t assume you know what people are doing to make changes to support the safety of our sport to that list.[/QUOTE]

That is terrific, and I say that with utmost sincerity. That is a positive spin and one toward solutions. So what are people doing, people on this forum? I ask this question seriously and hearing about what we can do, what we are doing, promotes energy.

Many threads have focused on eventing safety problems that is claiming so many horses and riders outright and leaving many maimed for life. The last one I remember, which includes what people are doing - and what frustrations have been met by those trying to change the sport is the Red Hills thread:

http://www.chronofhorse.com/forum/showthread.php?461745-Red-Hills-Rider-Falls/page21

Again, there are many others.

[QUOTE=goodmorning;8156660]
I suggest you read a few history books and see what happens when because a few (yes a few as the ULs are a small fracition of the ENTIRE SPORT) people do not question or see that something is very wrong, no one else does. Is that where you get off thinking the world is a better place by not sharing & discussing; that everyhting would be A OK in the world if everyone agreed with everything all the time? Thats an inefficient backwards mindset you got going there. YOU are everything that is wrong with the sport. The culture of indifference.

People always need others policing and regulating because a self-regulating society does not work. Really, I suggest you read some history books.[/QUOTE]

Bless your heart!

[QUOTE=Winding Down;8156673]
This whole argument about “Culture of Indifference” is absolutely ridiculous! Seriously people? Do you think ANYONE is indifferent???[/QUOTE]

I would have said “Culture of Denial”, but they can look pretty similar sometimes.

Some people just don’t want to know about the problems and accidents. Some people do, but they only want to know enough to be able to convince themselves that that could never happen to them. Accepting the idea that there are systemic problems and sometimes we actually need to change what we’re doing is really, really hard.

I don’t understand USEF leadership well enough to really figure out what’s going on there. It feels like about half the time they really get it and half the time they’re 180 degrees off.

One not-unrelated question: even for non-air vests, I haven’t ever seen recent research on how and how well they work. (Most recent I saw was I think 1990, Mills and Gillchrist? Ancient history.) There’s got to be something newer, right? Can anyone point me at it?

[QUOTE=amb;8156729]
I would have said “Culture of Denial”, but they can look pretty similar sometimes.

Some people just don’t want to know about the problems and accidents. Some people do, but they only want to know enough to be able to convince themselves that that could never happen to them. Accepting the idea that there are systemic problems and sometimes we actually need to change what we’re doing is really, really hard.

I don’t understand USEF leadership well enough to really figure out what’s going on there. It feels like about half the time they really get it and half the time they’re 180 degrees off.

One not-unrelated question: even for non-air vests, I haven’t ever seen recent research on how and how well they work. (Most recent I saw was I think 1990, Mills and Gillchrist? Ancient history.) There’s got to be something newer, right? Can anyone point me at it?[/QUOTE]

Lots of research outside of equestrian disciplines. Air Vests are pretty routine among the lower level motocross but the higher ups spend much more as in 10k for better systems. Google will take you there.

[QUOTE=Winding Down;8156673]
This whole argument about “Culture of Indifference” is absolutely ridiculous! Seriously people? Do you think ANYONE is indifferent??? What are they supposed to do? Hang out with you?

People address the issue of serious accidents in various ways. Some contribute $$ to the those working on solutions. Others do their own research on how to be safer for themselves personally. Others go out and volunteer (in a nice accommodating manner, not in an austere derogatory one) to be part of the research, and others sit on their arses coming up with lists and accusing anyone who does not agree with them of being okay with rider deaths.

C’mon people. Cut the negative derogatory “everyone who does not play with me is indifferent
 or incompetent
 or rude
 or whatever.”

And for those who keep saying, “Do something, do something!!!” then apply those words to yourselves. Actively involve yourself in some way other than trashing those who take issue with your statements, or pointing fingers at the “Powers” saying they do not care, they are incompetent, they are indifferent, or golly gee, they were rude to me.

Yes we need more research and we need team players
 and not a culture of finger pointing, naysaying, and bashing anyone who dares advocate for an alternate perspective.[/QUOTE]
Let us go back a moment and review.

Posts 47-50.

JER
We need an ‘Eventing Death List’ sticky at the top of this forum.

I will start a thread asking for one. We’ll see what happens. I prefer not to use watered-down (like ‘In Memoriam’) or euphemistic language here; plain language is what this topic deserves, just as it deserves to be kept front and center in the eventing community.

Wish me luck. :slight_smile:

Now, was she kidding, serious? I took it as a valid idea to perhaps remind us that these things happen and such a list is one we want to not add too.

 <a href="http://www.chronofhorse.com/forum/member.php?155034-Manahmanah">[B]Manahmanah[/B]</a>       responded with 

This is the sort of henny penny business we really do not need.

which does not make much sense. I asked for clarification “because?” which did not get a response and JER comes back with her culture of indifference comment which was a poignant point since Mana had not really stated a reason for her/his dislike, just a knee jerk response.

Her request for a sticky may not gain traction, but if someone finds it offensive or bothersome, give some reason. That shows more care of the topic than just a hand wave.

In any other sport, the risk accepted is done by like minded and aware human beings. In the equestrian world we have a partner with no real say in the matter, required trust, and little action in regards to their safety. We participate in Eventing not despite the horse, but because of it. if JER feels there is a culture of indifference it is because us humans are more concerned about our safety before that of the horse.

The proof is simple, we will not simple ease back on the difficulty of the sport. Instead, we wrap more bubble wrap around us, we create jumps that break so we don’t get crushed and in the mean time, the fundamental reason we are allowed to jump fences is asked to do the impossible.

So I don’t mind a list, because I’d like the reminder that even one more human, one more horse is a failure in making change.

Francisco Seabra in Spain
Dream Girl at Full Gallop,
Conahy’s Courage at Red Hills
Cadiz at Fontainebleau

:frowning:

[QUOTE=RAyers;8156592]
OK, then now let’s really dive into the numbers:

  1. You have a 1 in 5 shot of s SERIOUS injury if you have a rotational fall, a 1 in 20 for nonrotational and a 1 in 50 for simply falling off.

  2. You have a 1 in 10,000 shot of dying for every start and a 1 in 500 shot at a serious injury for every start.

In other words, at least one person for every horse trial with more than 500 entries will go home in an ambulance.

Would you take this odds with you car? Your cell phone? How about your doctor or surgeon?

Is that acceptable? How about if it was your turn? Your kid’s turn?

Do you think this rate works in other sports? Would you enjoy NASCAR, NHRA, NFL, NBA, NHL, even MMA etc. with those statistics?

Coming from a research hospital POV as well as one who works with high risk manufacturing, I think this falls in the D grade range in terms of level of effort. Why, do you ask?

We have a reported 1% infection rate in the OR (1 in 100 shot of having an infection develop as the result of surgery), do you know how many studies we are doing to work out how to get this to 1 in 10,000? And this is not even for high risk patients or those that include fatalities.

It’s about QUALITY. If this sport wants to grow, then they need a quality product.[/QUOTE]

Curious. How did you come up with your probabilities, e.g., sample size, time length, etc.? I assume multi- year, given that the range of events throughout the year? And across geographic areas? You included countries outside of the US I presume? All of them? All levels?

I am sure you did not just take a few months, especially given the unusually high number of accidents this year. At this point, we of course do not want to draw conclusions based on such a short time span, for obvious reasons.

??