You know the horse market is crazy when

[Mander]

I definitely think it’s a little “column A, column B”, but one thing people were mentioning (probably upthread) is that after the '08 recession, many people cut down their breeding programs and didn’t breed as much (if at all) in the following years. Those foals would have been about 9-11 years old now, which is right in the sweet spot for anyone looking for something not too green, with many good years left ahead of them.

That coupled with everybody and their cousin wanting to ride since it’s one of the few activities that hasn’t been totally upended because of COVID (aside from cancelled shows) really put a squeeze on an already small pool of horses.

[beowulf]

Agreed. I also believe there is a dearth of up-and-coming professionals that can afford a string of horses and/or multiple horses in training. We have plenty of pros who want to hang out their shingle, but not many are horse-makers (IMHO) and the few that are usually come from shorter pockets and subsidize owning a horse or two by teaching clients or riding client horses.

Horse keeping has gotten so expensive that most people can’t afford more than one horse, so there aren’t a lot of people out there making a horse either - they get attached and don’t want to sell and before they know it that project horse is a personal horse. It trickles down into the availability of what’s out there as well, since if people are only bringing along one or two horses at a time, there are fewer for sale – most people aren’t interested in selling their personal horse unless it’s for life-changing money.

I have several on the payroll now and it is nothing like it was 10-15 years ago, where I could afford to go to the track every fall and pick up something cheap and move it along after 6-8 months of retraining. This time ten years ago I had five project horses and sold them after a couple of months of installing W/T/C with jumps on them. Now, I got one personal horse and a young 5 y/o and neither are for sale. I haven’t bought-to-sell a horse in over a decade - it just isn’t profitable anymore until you get to the big sticks and putting a resume on a horse is expensive. I’m sure there are many others like me that have been priced or aged out. My dressage trainer just hit 73 and is done making young horses. My eventing trainer is in her 40s and has taken a huge step back from eventing and now focuses on riding horses for clients – no baby starting… My other eventing trainer hasn’t sat on a bona-fide green horse in years. That’s four people in my zipcode and I can think of many others, too.

[Mander]

Yeah you definitely make some great points there. Come to think of it, my last trainer (who is maybe in her late 30s, early 40s) was already quite selective with what she’d take on training-wise. I asked her about it once, and she just had too much to lose if she got injured by a young horse being dumb. A HCOL area, coupled with an already small margin industry means that getting injured could easily cost her her barn (which she had only just been able to afford in the last year or two anyways). From a realistic standpoint, it was just safer to focus on giving lessons, boarding and taking kids to horse shows than to bother making and selling horses.

Compare that to my current trainer who is older, but still hops on greenies from time to time if they happen to pass through her barn - she’s working out of a property that her family has owned for decades, and she’s got other sources of passive income with rental properties and some part time work she does. She’s not dependent on her barn to put food on the table, and it’s not going to go into foreclosure if she gets injured. Her overall risk is much much smaller.

Personally, I’d love to pull something off the track, put a few months of work into it and flip it, but even in our low cost of living area, board is still around $650/mo. That, plus any vet/farrier/dental costs, and of course the cost of the horse upfront - I’m not sure I could even break even, let alone turn a profit.

[OverandOnward]

@beowulf

Horse keeping has gotten so expensive that most people can’t afford more than one horse, so there aren’t a lot of people out there making a horse either - they get attached and don’t want to sell and before they know it that project horse is a personal horse.

[raises hand] Yep.

Have an OTTB that I originally thought would be the first of an ongoing stream of project horses, just one at a time, not really to make money. Well, at this point he’s become a personal horse. He’s nice, no one else’s mistakes are in his repertoire, and the idea of doing other projects isn’t as attractive these days. That’s a lot of time/money investment just to see it move on to someone else.

[OverandOnward]

@mvp

ETA (because I’m not over it yet): A horse auction company that specializes in “helping” first time buyers? How can all of those concepts be put into the same sentence without it exploding?

Brilliant phraseology. [applause emoticon]

@TheDBYC

The number of people that are able to work with a 14yo horse that’s not even halter broke & has been treated like a beef Angus its whole life is close to non-existant.

And those untrained 14yo horses are a problem for horse rescue organizations, for exactly the same reason. It is tragically hard to find a foster home or rescue facility that has the environment and skill a horse like this needs. Best is to hope to find a pasture home with someone who pays attention to the horse’s welfare. But it is rare to get the horse the training that will make it adoptable.

Those horses are probably the highest risk to actually end up on the truck to slaughter. Bypassing the ‘kill pens’ (which are really marketing ploys to sell horses).

[tohorse]

Second this. There’s a horse in the place that I board that I’d describe as green broke (can do small jumps, but canter is a rushed mess, doesn’t understand connection), not a great personality, not (yet) straightforward to ride, powerful, in their early teens selling for I believe 20-25k. The only things going for the horse is that it’s papered, surface level sound and a medium sized WB. I’ve witnessed a trial ride or two and I kid you not one of those rides looked dangerous enough for me to pull up my horse and just stand still until they left the arena . Best part, apparently they liked the horse and were STILL considering buying it after this.

[Spudsmyguy]

A friend has a TB that I swear and a lot of other people do too, has a screw loose. He’s dangerous to ride and is always wired so tightly, I’d be terrified to get on. Just this last weekend, she took him to an intro level derby and she couldn’t get him over any of the logs on the ground; it was a battle from the get go. In the arena, he’s a pretty good jumper and he’s been xc schooling (not successfully) but by the end she was crying and although signed up for two more schooling rounds, went home. Horse is sold and is leaving for Florida. I’m amazed she found a buyer, the horse ain’t right in the head. I heard she got low 5s for him.

[Tha_Ridge]

@tohorse

The only things going for the horse is that it’s papered, surface level sound and a medium sized WB.

This is the problem. You won’t believe the garbage people will buy if it has WB papers. I just sold/am selling an unraced TB mare in the low 5s and had several exchanges with folks who saw her videos, loved her, asked what breed she was and suddenly weren’t interested because they/their client won’t buy a TB.

[Mander]

As my trainer is fond of saying, “You can’t ride papers!”

[Bristol_Bay]

@Spudsmyguy

Horse is sold and is leaving for Florida.

Let me guess—they bought him off video?

It seems like the back to school/office trend is calming down the market. Prices seem a bit more reasonable these days.

[Spudsmyguy]

I don’t know but I wouldn’t doubt it. Probably the one day when the horse was actually going well and jumped around in the arena.

[beowulf]

I’ve told this story before but its worth repeating because it’s similar to yours. I had to take time off for ACL surgery. I decided to put my horse up for a FREE on-farm lease. This horse is every ammy’s dream: sensible, safe, honest, fancy, can go hunting with the hounds and then cart you around a nice dressage test… Put up a no nonsense “free lease BN/Novice TB” ad and got flipping crickets. Decided to pull it down, rephrased it as “available for lease” and no mention of breed and within hours I had people CALLING me begging to come see him. I had to turn FB notifications off because I was getting so many DMs. For many, expectations = reality and they see “TB” in the headlines and scroll by… EVERY single person that DM’d me wanted to know what kind of WB he was…

[TheDBYC]

@tohorse

Best part, apparently they liked the horse and were STILL considering buying it after this.

I am acquainted with someone on social media who was mounting a horse they were trying when their foot tapped the corral panel. This spooked the horse into a buck/rear/bolt & they were thrown. At which point the horse ran straight over them, stepping directly on the orbital of their left eye & breaking it. . Of course, the owner followed up offering to give them the horse. And of course, they took it.

To their credit, they are open to listening & taking advice & the relationship with the horse seems to be going well. Their saddle was awful & ill-fitting, for example. I didn’t want to be that person but knew I couldn’t live with myself if they had another accident due to the saddle pinching. I suggested something synthetic with an interchangeable gullet would fit their budget. Next pic they had a new, much better fitting saddle, hallelujah! . They treated for ulcers, found a really competent, supportive trainer, and it’s like a different horse, thank God.

[rulex]

@OverandOnward

Is this abrupt swing mostly due to pandemic fallout … or is something else going on?

I think it’s more than just the pandemic. I recently contacted an agent to see what they have available and it was interesting to see in my message history how prices have changed.

3 years ago in the low 20s price range they had some nice WBs in the 4-8yo range, the older ones with show experience.

Today in the same price range, they have 3yos. Unstarted or very lightly started.

There does seem to be such a lack of inventory of riding horses. And for an amateur paying training and board in a high COL area, it’s a significant gamble and financial investment to take that unstarted 3yo and send it off to a trainer for an undetermined length of time, not knowing what you are going to end up getting.

[rulex]

@Always_WIP

The market is finally starting to be more reasonable.

I take my earlier comment back about the market retuning to sanity. This week a very green (like not even cantering under saddle yet) grade pony/draft mix type was listed for high mid 4s. Comments were chastising the poster that the price was too low and someone was going to buy it to flip and the horse should at least be priced low 5s. Marked as sold in a day.

[Bluey]

@rulex

I think it’s more than just the pandemic. I recently contacted an agent to see what they have available and it was interesting to see in my message history how prices have changed.

3 years ago in the low 20s price range they had some nice WBs in the 4-8yo range, the older ones with show experience.

Today in the same price range, they have 3yos. Unstarted or very lightly started.

There does seem to be such a lack of inventory of riding horses. And for an amateur paying training and board in a high COL area, it’s a significant gamble and financial investment to take that unstarted 3yo and send it off to a trainer for an undetermined length of time, not knowing what you are going to end up getting.

We used to call that “buying the training”, you paid more for that training, even more for that good, professional training in one horse compared with another of same intrinsic value but less training.

There is also “buying the color”, some will pay more when two horses are identical in all they want, one the preferred color for that buyer.

Since there are more people looking for horses than horses that fit what they want, sellers rule.
Prices are high for those kinds of horses buyers are most interested in.

[Gardenhorse]

I know a similar story of someone who was injured (badly enough to be out of the saddle several months) by falling off a horse on their trial ride and still bought the horse based on their trainer’s advice. Unfortunately it didn’t go as well, but they have since switched trainers, sold the horse, and bought a new horse who seems much more suitable. A painful learning experience I think. As an adult amateur, I think it’s probably a good rule of thumb to not buy a horse if you fall off of it during the trial ride.

[Horselove5]

@rulex

This week a very green (like not even cantering under saddle yet) grade pony/draft mix type was listed for high mid 4s.

Ponies must make lucrative business…
Just saw an ad for a 4yo western pony offered for $15k (reduced price!), which contains 3 pics altogether - just the head, it backing up & over a raised pole. It sure loves kids though.

[AmmyHunter]

@Gardenhorse

As an adult amateur, I think it’s probably a good rule of thumb to not buy a horse if you fall off of it during the trial ride.

Meh, I’d say it depends entirely on the circumstances. I bought one I fell off of in a trial ride, and it’s been a perfect match. But, it happened after we had the horse on trial and had 4 or 5 great rides, and was a total fluke, just an unexpected abrupt halt after pulling a shoe - everyone watching confirmed the horse did nothing dirty. We had already concluded it was the right horse if it vetted, and that was not enough to deter me given that no one including me thought the horse had any real intent to be naughty. It’s never happened again in 2 years. Now, the one that bucked me off in a schooling ring and ran back to the barn, that one definitely was not a fluke and falls within the “don’t buy it if you fall off” bucket

[Gardenhorse]

Sure, there’s an exception to every rule. Glad yours turned out well!