Your 08 Derby pick?

[Texarkana]

[QUOTE=Xctrygirl;2818273]
Yep he’s a half to Congaree. Finished a nice 2nd.

Here’s how he and Lad connect…

Sangaree is Awesome Again x Mari’s Sheba

His dam, Mari’s Sheba is Mari’s Book x Sheba Little

Lad is Unbridled x Sheba Little…

IE. Lad’s older half sister is Congaree’s and Sangaree’s dam

Sangaree was bred by Stonerside Farm as was Lad and Mari’s Sheba

~Emily[/QUOTE]

I should jump on the Sangaree bandwagon, too.

My beloved gelding, Brukabookie, is Mari’s Book x Whatonamer.

I guess that makes Sangaree his distant “nephew.” Although he’s not a half to his dam like Lad is.

Random factoid-- Mari’s Sheba had Mari’s Book on the top broodmare sires list for awhile back when Congaree was running.

But I think I’m sticking with my pick… for now.

[Texarkana]

Can I just say that after this weekend I am on the Court Vision boat more than ever? He put in one heck of a race in the Remsen!

Although, Atoned’s performance was also pretty impressive. He took a bad stumble in the first turn and came back to take the lead, only to get nailed at the wire.

[Glimmerglass]

As indicated it is still a bit early to get an idea of who will fire come some six months from now … Tagg’s Big Truck, flopped, so did Zito’s Cool Coal Man although lucky for Nick he had a very nice backup runner in the Grade-2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes with Anak Nakal. Cool Coal Man, who skipped the Remsen for the KJCS, went off as one of the favs and looked good early but like flame he burned out and finished dead last.

Video of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes

Anak Nakal ridden by Julien Leparoux (who won the Jock title for the Churchill meet) held off Calvin Bo-rail who closed for second on Blackberry Road and on the inside rail was the flyer Racecar Rhapsody

Zito looks to be sitting on a solid stable for the 3-yr old season:

Anak Nakal, a son of Belmont winner Victory Gallop, finished in 1:43.16, the third-fastest time since the stakes had been at 1 1/16 miles. He paid $18.40 as the fourth choice in the field of seven. He’s earned $220,916 for Masri, who said the name means “mischievous child” in Arabic.

“When you win a race like this, you just want to have your eyes on the Derby, and hopefully not run them too many times,” said Zito.

The Remsen for comparisons, at a distance of 1 1/8 mi, had a winning time of 1:52 2/5; Court Vision looked great in that race!

[Glimmerglass]

This week’s Derby Trail watch in the Bloodhorse gives a slight nod with horses to watch with Marylou Whitney’s Legacy Thief trained by D. Wayne Lukas. I watched his race from last weekend and it was solid taking the victory gate to wire.

Someone capture this pic of him - with Mike Luzzi up in that maiden victory (11/24) at Aqueduct going 1-mile and winning by 5 3/4 lengths. He previously had three starts before breaking his maiden, including a race at Belmont on Sep 8th taking 4th which included Cool Coal Man who finished 2nd. His last effort, before the maiden victory, was on Oct 21st, when he took 3rd but was rather rank and the rac won by another “Coal” horse - Coal Play.

[miss_critic]

I’ve been re-reading about past champions noting in particular their records prior to the derby…man, this game is HARD!

[Glimmerglass]

I haven’t seen this colt but Bill Finlay at ESPN points him out for Nov 30th and its looks like he’s freaky fast:

Lieutenant Ron a Derby sleeper?

Keep an eye on a horse named Lieutenant Ron. He’s a serious Kentucky Derby 2008 sleeper. A member of the West Point Thoroughbreds syndicate, he broke his maiden in his career debut by 8 ¼ lengths under Alan Garcia. He did so after dueling with the favorite through a sharp first quarter in :22 2/5. He completed the six furlongs run in the mud in 1:09 3/5 and his Beyer figure for the race was a 102. Only four 2-year-olds have run faster this year.

Kiaran McLaughlin trains him. The horse is now at Palm Meadows in Florida and is expected to reappear at Gulfstream meet. “He’s a super fast colt with a great mind,” West Point head Terry Finley said. " The question will be if he gets two turns. We think he will, but we’re biased."

[pinkdiamondracing]

My pick for the Derby is Slew’s Tiznow

[Glimmerglass]

Remember the fat pursed - $1M - Grade 3 race that launched Birdbirdistheword into any type of Derby discussion last year? Well this year that very lucrative 1 1/16 mi race in Louisiana is enticing some of the big boys to ship in solid horses and also enticing top jocks too.

Delta Jackpot attracts overflow; 19 horses pre-entered into the December 7 race

Final entries for the race will be taken Tuesday Dec. 4.

Dec 3, 2007 “Gomez will ride Z Humor in $1M Jackpot”

Some of the confirmed …

Garrett Gomez on Z Humor, trained by Billy Mott and another of the Zayat flyers
Robby Albarado on Racecar Rhapsody for trainer Ken McPeek
Ramon Dominguez on undefeated Cave’s Valley trained by Michael Trombetta
Miguel Mena up on Betatron, the horse with the highest Beyer (99) going into the race, trained by Tom Amoss

Slews Tiznow is going to pass, per his trainer Greg Fox, and will be pointed instead point for the Grade 1, $750,000 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park on Dec. 22.

[Glimmerglass]

Reflection: 2006’s Grade 3 Boyd Gaming’s Delta Jackpot Stakes from youtube.com

Officer Rocket and Xchanger would go on to race in 2007 with solid efforts; the rest I can’t recall racing again in a big graded stakes race. The effort by Pirates Deputy is impressive as was Xchangers too.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;2844356]
Ramon Dominguez on undefeated Cave’s Valley trained by Michael Trombetta [/QUOTE]

Nice to see some Maryland folks at an early big dance.

Who owns this colt? Harry Meyerhoff (and his son Tom) who knows a thing or two about gutsy horses … like his 1980 HOY - Spectacular Bid. In fact the late Bud Delp was asked to approve of this colt for the Meyerhoffs’.

DRF 12-4-07 “Unbeaten colt tries to hit $1M Jackpot”

Tom and Harry Meyerhoff, the 78-year-old brother of Robert E. Meyerhoff, who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1994 with Concern, purchased Cave’s Valley at auction for $130,000. He is by Stephen Got Even, whose offspring include Stevie Wonderboy, winner of the BC Juvenile in 2006. Kamaal, a daughter of Irgun who placed in a one-mile stakes at 2, is the dam of Cave’s Valley.

Cave’s Valley (the name of which is a geography area north of Baltimore - Owings Mills) broke his maiden at Saratoga Aug 17 by 7 1/2 lengths and earning a 91 Beyer - in his first start.

10 starters for Friday Evening’s $1 Million Delta Jackpot Stakes (Grade 3)

Race 8; 9:47 pm CST

The complete field for the race from the rail with riders:
1 Betatron, Miguel Mena;
2 Golden Yank, Gerard Melancon;
3 Overextended, Patrick Valenzuela;
4 Z Humor, Garrett Gomez;
5 Cudjo, Curt Bourque;
6 Cave’s Valley, Ramon Dominguez;
7 Racecar Rhapsody, Robby Albarado;
8 St. Joe, Rafael Bejarano;
9 Turf War, Calvin Borel;
10 Take the Money, Shaun Bridgmohan.

[WhiteCamry]

I like War Pass but I’m keeping an eye on Majestic Warrior.

[Glimmerglass]

We’ll see if Cave’s Valley rises to the occasion when his mettle is tested Friday in the $1 Million Delta Jackpot Stakes (G3) as cited but here is a flashback to those far more warm days in August …

BloodHorse 8-20-07 "Cave’s Valley Nearly Breaks Saratoga Track Record, Again

…while coming within two-fifths of a second of setting the course record, which ironically had been set the day before by Secret Gypsy. Before Secret Gypsy’s time of 1:03.26 on Aug. 16, the 5 1/2-furlong track record at Saratoga had stood since 2001.

Maybe the most impressive part of his maiden debut was that jockey Ramon Dominguez easily hand-rode the colt to the finish line in a time of 1:03.79.

Again like Big Truck and some others a lot of what these colts have done in the late summer and early fall can be tossed out when viewing would be Derby starters in May.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;2846465]
9 Turf War, Calvin Borel up[/QUOTE]

Inrony: Turf War is a full brother to Grasshopper who spooked the bejesus out of Calvin aboard Street Sense in that thrilling race to the wire in the Travers Stakes

[miss_critic]

I was thinking, in the past 10 years, who was on the radar at this point their 2 yr old year and was successful, ie Grade I winner, at 3?

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=miss_critic;2849457]
I was thinking, in the past 10 years, who was on the radar at this point their 2 yr old year and was successful, ie Grade I winner, at 3?[/QUOTE]

Well … Street Sense won the Grade I Breeders Cup JV in 2006 and was an early Top 5 mention for the Kentucky Derby in late 2006 though the begining of 2007.

[Texarkana]

[QUOTE=miss_critic;2849457]
I was thinking, in the past 10 years, who was on the radar at this point their 2 yr old year and was successful, ie Grade I winner, at 3?[/QUOTE]

Real Quiet also was a G1 winner at 2 and definitely on the radar at this point in the game.

Oh, and don’t forget Point Given. He sure as heck had impressive 2 year old and 3 year old seasons, even if he didn’t win the derby.

Oooh, I’m on a roll now that I’m thinking outside the box. Empire Maker was 2nd in the Remsen as a 2 year old and his name was out there before 2003 rolled around. Lemon Drop Kid was another G1 winner at 2 who went on to have G1 wins at 3.

Now if only I could remember the names of all the great flops in the past 10 years who’s stars burned out long before May of their 3 year old year. Of course they’re harder to remember. :lol: The only one that springs to mind immediately is Toby Keith’s Cactus Ridge, who was undefeated as a 2 y/o. But he broke down so it doesn’t really count. He was no Court Vision anyway.

[ravenclaw]

I don’t know if Afleet Alex was a G1 winner at 2, but he was definitely on the radar. He was 2nd in the BC Juvenile and he won/placed well in some other big 2-year-old races.

[Glimmerglass]

I assumed the question was posed in relation to a big graded stakes winning horse at two, was the ‘buzz’ at the end of the 2yr old seaon and then went on to win the Kentucky Derby

Empire Maker was 2nd in the Remsen as a 2 year old and his name was out there before 2003 rolled around.

Good ol’ Empire Maker even with Jerry up was pummled not once but twice by Funny Cide when it really mattered Least we forget Funny’s Preakness victory was by one of the largest margins ever in the history of that race.

Afleet Alex indeed brought a lot of trophies with him to Louisville for that first Saturday in May: won the G1 Hopeful Stakes and G2 Sanford Stakes; second in the G1 Champagne Stakes and the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile. Like Empire Maker when the big dance took place he finished 3rd.

There are only a handful of Grade 1 races for 2 yr olds (although sadly they seem to be going in the direction of adding more) and more often then not those winners have failed to continued to roll right through the first Saturday in May.

[Dreamboat_Annie]

Well since I just got TVG racing channel on my direct tv package, I can start to watch some races, and try and find a favorite…I am hooked on watching racing now everyday…

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;2846465]
10 starters for Friday Evening’s $1 Million Delta Jackpot Stakes (Grade 3) Race 8; 9:47 pm CST[/QUOTE]

TVG did not have the rights to this race (HRTV did) so I have to go by what the final results are without seeing the run itself:

Results from DRF

Deadheat: between Z Humor (Garrett Gomez up) and Turf War (Calvin Borel); trained by Bill Mott and Casse Mark, respectively; owned by Zayat Stables and Woodford Racing, respectively.

Third place: Golden Yank.

Cave’s Valley finished a disappointing 4 back from Golden Yank.

Interestingly the payouts: $2 Exacta of 4-9 (Z Humor then Turf War): $113.20 or if you wagered 9-4 : $245.80