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Your 08 Derby pick?

Racing
#141

Worth taking a read at the comments from Steve Haskin at the BloodHorse regarding the 1st Future Wagers Feb 7, 2008:

excerpt

COWBOY CAL (20-1) – He will continue to be an enigma because of the schedule Todd Pletcher has mapped out for him. Winning another minor turf stakes and then the Toyota Blue Grass on Polytrack will shed no light on his ability to make the transition to dirt. This is an extremely talented horse, and he’s been training super on dirt, but with this schedule, he’ll be just another guess. If he’s 30-1 or higher he still might be worth the gamble.

CROWN OF THORNS (20-1) – Yet another synthetic surface horse with questions surrounding him. From what he’s shown so far, he looks to have the potential to be something special. He’s classy, professional, and seems to do everything right. Once again, unless he comes East before the Derby, you won’t know for sure, but gut feeling says he’s for real.

Clearly the (sadly) modern-day enigma of horses having fewer and fewer prep races and now running on just synthetics are giving punters and sports writers headaches. A lot of guess work and reading of tea leaves with racing in 2008 vs. 1979.

Down memory lane with Spectacular Bid Jan - April 1979 and his schedule before the Kentucky Derby, all of the below were victories.

26 Apr: Blue Grass-G1
24 Mar: Flamingo-G1
06 Mar: Florida Derby-G1
19 Feb: Fountain of Youth-G3
07 Feb: Hutcheson Stakes (ungraded)

11 Nov 1978: Hertiage-G2
28 Oct 1978: Laurel Futurity-G1
19 Oct 1978: Young American-G1
08 Oct 1978: Champagne-G1
23 Sep 1978: World’s Playground-G3

(plus 4 races prior to the World’s Playground)

#142

The Associated Press’ “Top 10 List” published the evening of Sunday Feb 10th:

Pyro Tops the Run to the Roses Top 10"

Abridged

  1. Pyro: > Next start: Louisiana Derby (Fair Grounds, March 8).
  2. War Pass: > Next start: Gulfstream allowance (February)
  3. Majestic Warrior: > Next start: Undecided
    4. Tale of Ekati: > Next start: Louisiana Derby
  4. Court Vision : > Next start: Fountain of Youth (Gulfstream, Feb. 24)
  5. Z Fortune: > Next start: Louisiana Derby
  6. Anak Nakal: > Next start: Fountain of Youth
  7. Cowboy Cal: > Next start: Undecided
    9: El Gato Malo: > Next start: Sham (Santa Anita, March 1)
  8. Crown of Thorns: > Next start: Sham.
    Keep An Eye On: Big Truck, Colonel John, Giant Moon, Into Mischief, Monba, Z Humor.

What I think is odd is citing so high Tale of Ekati when Tagg himself made the comment last week that he’s still not right (see “Tale of Ekati isn’t up to Tagg’s standards” 2/8/08) and needs more time also Big Truck has been less then impressive in his last couple of starts.

#143

Also the blurb from The Daily Racing Form regarding a near mishap with War Pass from Saturday Feb 9th when they were putting in a formal work:

As luck would have it, the only other horse in sight when War Pass broke off at the half-mile pole happened to be galloping a couple of hundred yards in front of him while hugging the inner rail, a place traditionally reserved only for workers. Luckily, exercise rider Maxine Correa spotted the unexpected company as she headed into the turn and was able to steer War Pass around the slower moving intruder while telling the rider in no uncertain terms that he was in the wrong place at the worst possible time as she buzzed by.

“You never know what might happen in this business,” said Zito as War Pass pulled up on the backstretch. “There was only one other horse out there with us and it forced Maxine to alter her course. The work could have been ruined, although fortunately things turned out just fine.”

Nick’s other star Anak Nakal (with Julien Leparoux up) is scheduled to make his 3-year-old debut in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on Feb. 24.

#144

Still on my list?

My admiration of Pyro is well documented (see the first post in this thread) - he caught my eye with his closing kick in the Breeder’s Cup, and his finish in the Risen Star was astounding. That said, stone cold closers rarely win the Derby. Wonder if he’s the exception?

Off to ruminate on this …

#145

[QUOTE=johnnysauntie;2998393]
That said, stone cold closers rarely win the Derby. Wonder if he’s the exception?[/QUOTE]

Althought recall that last year Street Sense was 2nd to last for much of the backstretch - only the closer Imawildandcrazyguy behind him - his race style changed later in the year. In the Kentucky Derby he wasn’t in the lead, front pack, or even really on the pace until he started to pick off those burned out.

Agree that stone closers in the Derby in recent years tend to get only up to about 4th. The aforementioned Imawildandcrazyguy and Don’t Get Mad both came from downtown to advance that close.

Conversely front runners rarely win either. One of the last ones that stands out was the filly Winning Colors. She took the lead after the initial charge out of the gate and nobody but nobody could get close to her until the all too late finish.

#146

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;2987550]
ESPN/Bill Finley 2-5-08 “Mystery horse Tomcito among Triple Crown noms”

Though only a 2-year-old, Tomcito had to race against 3-year-olds.

Two of his races on youtube.com

From Nov 17, 2007: Grade-1 Derby Nacional 2007; 2:59

From Oct 10, 2007: Grade-1 ‘Ricardo Ortiz de Zevallos’ ; 2:31[/QUOTE]

He put in another impressive workout on Sunday Feb 10th: he drilled five furlongs in 1:00.80 handily in what was his 3rd workout since shipping back to the US on Dec 17th. That was the 3rd fastest out of 18 horses at the distance.

Trainer Dante Zanelli clocked the Street Cry bay colt galloping out six furlongs in 1:14.40.

Tomcito’s racing exploits in Peru were reminiscent of another standout Street Cry colt, 2007 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands (G1) winner Street Sense. Tomcito soundly conquered his older Southern Hemisphere rivals in scintillating style in a pair of Peruvian classic races.

Tomcito likely will make his 2008 debut in either the $1-million Florida Derby (G1) or the $2-million United Arab Emirates Derby (UAE-G2), both slated for March 29.

Tomcito has been nominated to the 2008 Triple Crown as well as the UAE Derby (UAE-G2) and $6-million Emirates Airline Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1), however, his status for the latter two races will depend on his international rating.

#147

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;2998599]
Althought recall that last year Street Sense was 2nd to last for much of the backstretch - only the closer Imawildandcrazyguy behind him - his race style changed later in the year. In the Kentucky Derby he wasn’t in the lead, front pack, or even really on the pace until he started to pick off those burned out.

Agree that stone closers in the Derby in recent years tend to get only up to about 4th. The aforementioned Imawildandcrazyguy and Don’t Get Mad both came from downtown to advance that close.

Conversely front runners rarely win either. One of the last ones that stands out was the filly Winning Colors. She took the lead after the initial charge out of the gate and nobody but nobody could get close to her until the all too late finish.[/QUOTE]

Granted it’s still early, but the more and more I think about our prospects this year, the more I think this might be a year to favor speed. We have a heck of a lot of good closers so far and not a lot of horses to set the pace. If War Pass can get the distance, he might have a better shot than many initially believed him to have…

And then you have those blazing fast horses running on Santa Anita’s crazy surface (like Bob Black Jack). Who even knows what to make of them…

#148

Tale of Ekati

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;2997994]

What I think is odd is citing so high Tale of Ekati when Tagg himself made the comment last week that he’s still not right (see “Tale of Ekati isn’t up to Tagg’s standards” 2/8/08) and needs more time also Big Truck has been less then impressive in his last couple of starts.[/QUOTE]

This is good to hear.

Correction
By DRF STAFF
A headline with an article about Tale of Ekati, a colt trained by Barclay Tagg, misstated the trainer’s assessment of the horse’s quality. In the article, Tagg said, “I still don’t have him right back where I want him” - a reference to the trainer’s feeling that the colt would not be ready to make his season debut until the Louisiana Derby on March 8, not that Tale of Ekati isn’t up to Tagg’s standards.

#149

Etched is entered to race in Thursday’s [Feb 14] $250,000 U.A.E. Two Thousand Guineas (UAE-G3) at Nad al Sheba

That is a 1-mi (and a pinch) distance

#150

Anyone watching Halo Najib? Anyone?

He picked up a win yesterday in the Darley Ocala Breeders Sale Championship Stakes for Zayat/Romans with Desormeaux up.

#151

[QUOTE=Lori T;2942740]
Calvin Borel was just here for Christmas and spoke very highly of “Dennis O’Quirk” (or was it O’Quark?). He really likes this horse.[/QUOTE]

Uh-OH, what happened??? I actually was tossing these 2 up in the Take 10 and chose DofC because of this (not bc of what you said Lori, but bc CB liked him :wink: ). Geez…

On Monday, Denis of Cork is expected to meet Turf War in the Grade 3, $250,000 Southwest Stakes going one mile at Oaklawn Park. Calvin Borel, who had been riding both horses, chose Turf War for the Southwest, so Robby Albarado has been tabbed for Denis of Cork by trainer David Carroll.

More here: http://www.drf.com/news/article/92261.html

#152

Finished 4th.

            [B]UAE 2000 GUINEAS - GULF NEWS[/B]

1600M(a8F) Dirt $250k
1 Honour Devil (ARG) 59.0 M de Kock J Murtagh
2 Royal Vintage (SAF) 59.0 M de Kock K Shea
3 My Indy (ARG) 59.0 S bin Suroor K McEvoy
4 Etched (USA) 55.0 S bin Suroor L Dettori
5 Numaany (USA) 55.0 S bin Suroor T Durcan

First three home were southern hemisphere breds, and so had an age advantage, though in fairness they carried a 9lb weight penalty.

Btw, 1600m is a tad shy of a mile, about 30ft or so.

#153

[QUOTE=Drvmb1ggl3;3007529]
Finished 4th.
UAE 2000 GUINEAS - GULF NEWS
1600M(a8F) Dirt $250k
1 Honour Devil (ARG) 59.0 M de Kock J Murtagh
2 Royal Vintage (SAF) 59.0 M de Kock K Shea
3 My Indy (ARG) 59.0 S bin Suroor K McEvoy
4 Etched (USA) 55.0 S bin Suroor L Dettori[/QUOTE]

Just curious on your take - would you go forward “on the Kentucky Derby path” having not won convincingly? Mutually understood that it being effectively a 1-mi sprint that it could be apples and oranges.

#154

Hard to say. There’s still the UAE Derby to come, so you’d have to see how they perform there.
One could take some positives from the fact that he was best of the northern hemishpere breds in the race. It’s kind of hard to know what to make of the mixed hemispheres in those Dubai 3yo races, kinda like watching the BC era Curlin taking on the rest of the field in the KY last year, I think some people would spot him 9lbs and still expect him to win. 6 months or more at that age can be the world of difference.

#155

Anyone else think that modern day racing scribes have lost perspective in their use of hyperbole? (I do - amazing). Example:

Dick Downey (Member Nat’l Turf Writers Assoc) and his Downey Profile

At Fair Ground in New Orleans, Pyro turned into the Beast of the Bayou, blowing by the entire field in the stretch to win the Risen Star Stakes. Forget that this was only a Grade III race. The last-to-first win should long be remembered as one of the most exciting, dramatic moments in modern Thoroughbred racing history.

Really?

How does that scribe want to compare that effort to - as a pure example - Borrego’s last for first and absolute blow out of the G1 senior field and walk home?

Compare:

youtube.com 2005 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1): Borrego

youtube.com 2008 Risen Star Stakes (G3): Pyro

Not taking anything away from Pyro but I’m not keen on the view of historical events being only retroactive from 30-days ago :wink:

#156

This should be a very good prep race at Tampa Bay Downs - Saturday Feb 16, 2008, ungraded though:

$200,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (Race 10, 4:52 p.m.)
Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16-Miles (Dirt)

PP. Horse, Weight, Jockey

  1. Wise Answer (FL), 122, Jose Lezcano
  2. Celtic Meal (FL), 116, Andrew R. Ramgeet
  3. Wonder Mon (MD), 116, Travis L. Dunkelberger
  4. Fierce Wind (KY), 116, Cornelio H. Velasquez
  5. Dynamic Wayne (IL), 116, Pablo Morales
  6. Big Truck (NY), 116, Eibar Coa
  7. Smooth Air (FL), 118, Manoel R. Cruz
  8. Z Humor (KY), 122, Garrett K. Gomez
  9. Honey Honey Honey (FL), 120, Jose E. Lopez

TVG should be airing this race.

#157

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;3007953]
Anyone else think that modern day racing scribes have lost perspective in their use of hyperbole? (I do - amazing). Example:[/QUOTE]

Another - ESPN’s Jeremy Plonk 2/14/08 “Pyro’s prep effort rates among most memorable in last 20 years”

Could his performance have been the singular-best effort I’ve studied on the road to Louisville in the past two decades?

Again - what about Don’t Get Mad with Gary Steven’s aboard in the 2005 $113,100 Derby Trial at Churchill Downs? The video sadly appears to be very rare to find :frowning:

The Ron Ellis-trained Don’t Get Mad was last down the backstretch after breaking sharply from his outside post and falling back in the one-mile event. He was flying on the turn, however, and jockey Gary Stevens was forced to steady as he made contact with the field. Stevens angled at least six wide coming off the turn, and he inhaled the opposition to win going away. The final time on a track upgraded to fast after earlier rains was 1:36.

#158

[QUOTE=miss_critic;3005453]
Uh-OH, what happened??? I actually was tossing these 2 up in the Take 10 and chose DofC because of this (not bc of what you said Lori, but bc CB liked him :wink: ). Geez…

More here: http://www.drf.com/news/article/92261.html[/QUOTE]

Calvin’s mom in law just told me that he will be riding Turf War in the Derby…haven’t gotten the details yet.

#159

Interesting - is this the return of Big Truck?

$200,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes at 1 1/16-Miles, Tampa Bay

Win: Fierce Wind with Cornelio H. Velasquez up
Place: Big Truck with Eibar Coa up
Show: Smooth Air with Manoel Cruz up

(Z Humor finished 5th, Wonder Mon 2nd to last)

The prior race with Cornelio on Dreaming of Anna was a great - she won by a nose over Lear’s Princess in the Grade 3 Endeavour Stakes

#160

My pick is GOLDEN YANK, very nice colt!!

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