My point is you need (eventually) to decide if this is a business for a market, or just a luxury hobby to create your own dream horse. Either way is fine, but there will be constraints on breeding for a market, primarily people want recognizable breeds from proven lines and they may not be willing to pay what the foals cost to produce, or may not be willing to buy a foal. Those constraints don’t exist if you want to keep and ride your foals, but in that case you are limited to how many horses you can reasonably ride.
Eventually you need to know which it is, because waffling between the two is potentially financially ruinous and can lead to way too many horses.
I will say that this is the reality most of us do face and I can’t emphasize it enough; however, I also think the definition of one’s market is a bit narrowed. If you can keep your costs down by whatever means and still produce healthy, well conformed, well mannered beasts, rideable and manageable beasts of whatever flavor that possesses 3 pure gaits, one will likely have a market. I think one piece that is missing here is the presumption that any of us not conforming to the standard have the misguided belief that a successful business model is ‘build it and they will come’. Hell no. You must work your ass off training and showing your stock, demonstrating the versatility of your stock and the ease with which not just you, the ammy owner, but also others (be it kids, friends et al) can handle and ride your stock and ADVERTISE - This will create a market. There are so many avenues to utilize that provide free publicity these days it’s can be covered by most meager budgets.
I don’t personally know the OP but I do find her hypothetical goals resonating with what some of us have already done. When I went into breeding, I was already well in over my head in my addiction to dressage. I was showing, competing and participating in a variety of ‘programs’ to improve my riding, educate my eye, and develop my ‘plan’. I decided that hell if I worked my arse off to earn my bronze on my Ayerab and had the land (which I did) I might as well continue doing it riding something I loved, that my kids loved, that I would be giddy about spending my hard earned money and precious time on…etc and make more mounts for the family as well as myself to ride. I found a breed that ended up owning me as opposed to the other way around and I immersed myself in that breed. I also chose to create crosses of that breed. During my research, training, showing, working on my riding et al, I had people contacting me relatively frequently to ask me questions about ‘my breed’ and always asking what I had for sale. I wasn’t even advertising ANYTHING for sale. That got me realizing that there was a market and if they were already reaching out to me without any advertising going on, just what they heard and saw…well then.
I do think the points being raised to keep one’s head in the game are valid. Breeding nor training youngstock in order to sell are not for the faint of heart. I guess I should disclose that not only am I a veterinarian but I also possess a MBA and have run companies; so, the need for or how to develop business plans are not lost on me. I also want to emphasize the cautionary statement about SCALE or SIZE of business. I produced only what I could physically handle and keep ridden by myself. For me with a full-time job that was 4-5 horses under saddle or in training (but I had 11-14 at any one time). One key factor was having an arena on property with lights. I did little other than work and ride. I rode after work. I rode before work. I manipulated my jobs so that I could find time to ride or create time to ride or work babies or whatever. I also kept a calendar or really a training journal that was a calendar to keep me on track with what babies were learning what/which task. I cannot finish without mentioning that my children helped as well. They wanted their own horse, each, and the trade off was helping mom work the ranch, not the horses other than their own, but the feeding, watering, dragging the arena, cleaning the turnouts, holding horses for farrier, helping me with the full trailer load at the shows, yada yada. I grew up on a dairy so I saw nothing unrealistic or out-of-line with this expectation. My, now adult, children would agree.
I had to disband and retire my breeding program due to a major lifestyle change. Because my mares and stallion all had jobs in addition to the breeding aspect, I was able to sell them and not at a loss. Burning the candle at both ends worked for me and was well worth it. I became a better rider thanks to all the horses and youngstock I handled (owned and sold). My fitness level has rarely ever been called into question also due to my efforts. I started/backed and trained my children’s mounts and even now at age 60 can still start, back and train horses. I never have and still don’t spend even a fifth of what others spend on their horses in regards to boarding, training, lessons, trailering, etc. I have always been grateful to having a full-time job to afford and have the cash flow for shows, lessons, clinics for myself and my children but I also am a queen at efficiency of time and dollar. I didn’t lose my shirt and managed to break even but the key to that was far more knowing how to ‘buy’ the beasts, not the end dollar amount that I sold them. Networking has served me very well over the years. At the end of the day it’s about hard work, determination, research, creativity, and thinking outside of the box…a little luck doesn’t hurt but it is what you make of it.