I was thinking after the Belmont yesterday that if Birdstone won in 2004, this year’s 3yos must be his first crop on the ground.
So, first crop has a horse that is Canadian Juv champ, then wins the Kentucky Derby, 2nd in the Preakness, and 3rd in the Belmont.
Plus, another who WON the Belmont.
Not too shabby. What will be the effect on his stud fee? Anyone else know how the rest of his first crop is faring?
ETA: current stud fee is $10k LFG, but THAT will go up!
Don’t forget Stone Legacy, who finished second (twenty lengths back, but still second) to Rachel Alexandra in the Oaks.
I believe this is also the first crop of three year olds for Medaglia d’Oro, who has a slew of stakes winning fillies to his name- and he is standing for 60k at the moment.
I would expect that Birdstone’s fee will go up, yes.
I think it may go to low six figures. If the next years crop does well it may well hit seven figures before the end of his career. (Of course with inflation going the way it has seven figures may buy you a new econobox car in five years.)
There hasn’t been a seven figure Thoroughbred sire in nearly 25 years. I doubt very much that we’ll see one again in my lifetime.
Right now, the group of sires that command six figures is small and extremely select. Birdstone has a long way to go before he can earn his way into that group.
[QUOTE=5;4149124]
I think it may go to low six figures. If the next years crop does well it may well hit seven figures before the end of his career. (Of course with inflation going the way it has seven figures may buy you a new econobox car in five years.)[/QUOTE]
I highly doubt that. The group of stallions commanding six figures is very small- and it is truly rarefied air up there. Think AP Indy, Unbridled’s Song, Giant’s Causeway. I do not know of any that have stood for seven.
I would think that a fee in the range of 30-60 k would be reasonable (in that world- not reasonable to me! :lol:), but there was some press right after the Derby from the farm stating their intent to keep his fee low to keep him more ‘accessible’. That was before the Preakness and Belmont, so who knows now, but I can’t see anything in the area of six figures, at least not yet.
ETA: What LaurieB said. Sorry, didn’t read, just replied!
I think the only stallion that ever stood for seven figures was Northern Dancer at the tail end of his career, to a very small book of select mares. Given what he had produced by then, and how the market was in the 80’s, they could get away with asking that. As has been said, those conditions will unlikely ever be repeated, a perfect storm of amazing stallion and overinflated market.
Dynaformer is $150,000
List of six figure stallions.
Galileo - Private, reportedly around €200k (~$275k)
Kingmambo - $250k
AP Indy - $250k
Monsun - Private, was €150k (~$220k) last year
Encosta de Lago - AUS$220k (~$175k)
Montjeu - Private, reportedly around €125k (~$175k)
Dynaformer - $150k
Smart Strike - $150k
Distorted Humor - $150k
Street Cry - $150k
Danehill Dancer - Private, reportedly around €100k (~$140k)
Unbridled’s Song - $125k
Giant’s Causeway - $125k
Awesome Again - $125k
Deep Impact - 12m Yen (~$125k)
Pivotal - GBP65k (~$100k)
Dansili - GBP65k (~$100k)
Any others?
I think both Darley and Gainesway will hold off on doing anything pending results from both stallions’ current crop of 2-year-olds.
Right now, Medaglia D’Oro has 27 winners and 4 stakes winners from 82 starters. Birdstone was a bit less popular as a freshman sire and thus has only had 37 to start so far, with 19 winners and 3 stakes winners; given that 2 of the 3 stakes winners are grade I winners, not bad at all.
I think it will be very interesting to watch his stud fee over the next few years. Although I am sure he will have no problem filling his books with quality mares, I will be surprised if the commercial breeders go for him. His babies will probably not be very commercial even with this fabulous success.
I love him and hope to see his babies long into the future.
Birdstone will go up but not that high. The market is dreadful right now. Had he has this kind of success in a hot market, I’d see him going up to $40/50k. Today, maybe he’ll double to $20k for next year. Remember, his fee wont be set til late this year. We’ll have to see what his first crop does in it’s entirety and if the momentum of MTB and SB can carry through the summer and especially into the sales of Birdstone’s yearlings of 2009.
Dr. J - would you or someone else explain what you meant by “commercial” in the earlier post? Many thanks in advance.
What I do expect to see is that both stallions will be getting higher quality mares in their books.
And “commercial” appeal refers to a stallion’s ability to produce babies who can bring very high sales prices. Right now those stallions are the ones who sire two year olds who win early and can get into stakes company during their two year old season. Generally, buyers don’t want to have to wait an extra year or so to see if they’ll get a return on their investment.
Not to answer for Dr J but “commercial” means popular at the sales. Some very successful sires have never been hot tickets at the sales (Broad Brush comes to mind as does Dynaformer, pre-Barbaro) but are beloved by those looking to breed to race.
Commercial stallions are often sires of precocious babies with alot of speed. They hail from certain popular sire lines (Mr. P or Storm Cat) and often their "hits are grands slams and their misses are true bombs. Non commercial stallions may not be home run hitters but they consistently get you winners. Commercial stallions usually sire very striking looking, bigg-ish babies. Non commercial stallions sire plain or small looking babies in the mode of MTB.
Marylou (and hubby John) has said that she’s wanted Birdstone’s fee to be reasonable and accessable. I don’t think that has changed at all. She very well might fight any rate increase - they aren’t looking to make him into an ATM.
When they pegged him at $10k it wasn’t like Birdstone was some unaccomplished race horse. His career ended from an unexpected chip not delusions of wanting to double her fortune from his stud fees. While he didn’t win the Kentucky Derby (8th) and skipped the Preakness - he did win the G1 Champagne Stakes at 2-yrs old, the G1 Belmont Stakes and the G1 Travers Stakes.
Smarty Jones was priced for people who wanted to drop his name at cocktail parties.
Marylou is an absolute irreplaceable treasure in the Thoroughbred racing scene. She’s a tremendous sportswoman and she has the best interests of racing at heart.
And I NEVER quite understood 100K for Smarty’s freshman season. He was nicely, but not spectacularly bred, kind of plain-looking, IMO. If I were a breeder, that kind of money for a horse who really didn’t have much in the way of a career on the track - nuh-uh. And I was a Smarty fan when he was running. I’m sorry to see he’s had a slow start as a sire, but that honestly was a more realistic expectation than that he’d be the next Northern Dancer.
[QUOTE=Linny;4149946]
Not to answer for Dr J but “commercial” means popular at the sales. Some very successful sires have never been hot tickets at the sales (Broad Brush comes to mind as does Dynaformer, pre-Barbaro) but are beloved by those looking to breed to race.
Commercial stallions are often sires of precocious babies with alot of speed. They hail from certain popular sire lines (Mr. P or Storm Cat) and often their "hits are grands slams and their misses are true bombs. Non commercial stallions may not be home run hitters but they consistently get you winners. Commercial stallions usually sire very striking looking, bigg-ish babies. Non commercial stallions sire plain or small looking babies in the mode of MTB.[/QUOTE]
Exactly. There are many people out there ( maybe less lately but still a huge part of the market) that breed to sell (rather than race, although why on earth they have literally become two different goals is maddening… but they really have but that’s a whole 'nother post!) - usually at the yearling sales. They want BIG, buff, muscular, correct youngsters with lots of black type in the pedigrees. I don’t expect Birdstone’s babies to ever hit that mark by the time they have to be selected for the yearling sales, or ever for that matter. And that’s not a bad thing.
I love Mrs. Whitney too. I think it’s important to always be cognizant of first of all the welfare of the horse and then the sport of TB racing. If we forget those two things we might as well hang it up because nobody really “needs” this sport any longer -but it would be horrid to lose it. Forgetting those two things would speed it’s demise. Mrs. Whitney appears to cherish both. A true horseman and sportsman.
Thank you!
I would expect $30,000-40,000. If they go any higher than that they will end up chasing away their primary clients for him which will still be breed to race. I think his auction horses will go up in value but not THAT much (to warrant more than $50,000)
[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;4150012]
Marylou (and hubby John) has said that she’s wanted Birdstone’s fee to be reasonable and accessable. I don’t think that has changed at all. She very well might fight any rate increase - they aren’t looking to make him into an ATM.
When they pegged him at $10k it wasn’t like Birdstone was some unaccomplished race horse. His career ended from an unexpected chip not delusions of wanting to double her fortune from his stud fees. While he didn’t win the Kentucky Derby (8th) and skipped the Preakness - he did win the G1 Champagne Stakes at 2-yrs old, the G1 Belmont Stakes and the G1 Travers Stakes.
Smarty Jones was priced for people who wanted to drop his name at cocktail parties.[/QUOTE]
Well said. Didn’t the Gainesway stallion manager mention that they still wanted to keep Birdstone’s fee accessible despite the success of MTB? I tried to find it, but IIRC it was in a Bloodhorse or TB Times article recently…
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