Disappointing for that group, but the decision makes sense to me. They’ve been eliminated on cross country at 50% of their runs this year and they had a 20 at the Pan Ams (not to mention the fact that they haven’t yet completed a 5*). To me, that reads as a combination that is still learning to cope with pressure (pressure of a senior team championship, pressure of a 5*, pressure of trying to get selected, etc). A great way to really fry them is to send them into one of the highest pressure environments on the planet, and that would be a huge shame. The horse is still young - I think saving them for another day and letting them mature into something more pressure-proof is the right call.
I agree that the Canadians are likely to send CL and JP. Colleen is an easy call in terms of horse (Qorry), but Jessica is more interesting. On the one hand, I agree that sending Pavarotti might be too much at this stage. On the other hand, Canada has no team, and all the team riders will be under stricter orders than ever to complete, clear, since they don’t have a drop score. This will leave a huge opportunity for individual riders who can just go for it, and Pavarotti is pretty much the only Canadian horse who can “go for it” in a worthwhile way. If the rider thinks it’s appropriate, I wouldn’t mind seeing them send him, with the instruction to go for it if she can and pull up if she can’t. Why not? No big risk (since she can just pull up or even not start if he doesn’t handle the travel well, but he’s experienced enough that shouldn’t be an issue), potential reward, and they’ve got nothing left to prove.