Derby picks despite Glimmers absence?

[findeight]

We don’t seem to have any speculation, statistical analysis, educated guesses, hunches or totally illogical choices discussed this year.

Anyone care to join in?

Pass on the favorite for the totally scientific reasons that I hate the in your face you are behind a jackass silks and, in the past, those who have turned down multi million dollar offers, even those that allowed the horse to run under their colors with a small percentage of retained ownership? Have been calling back to rework the deal after the race. Plus no Cali bred winner in recent history.

I got Wicked Strong because the name is way cool, Jerkins demands respect and I like the odds. And, apparently, he’s got a wicked fast closing kick.

Danza because of post position and TPs ability to peak them at the right time among trainers represented with a live one today.

And I gotta bet Rosie just because…

Anybody else want to participate and reveal their ideas?

[Angelico]

Wildcat Red is my top pick. The way the race sets up on paper he should be perfectly poised to take the lead when the first wave falls apart, and we’ve seen he isn’t afraid to fight to keep it. He is the most “battle tested” horse in the field, IMO, and in this 20 horse field, guts are essential. I do worry about him handling the crowd, but his trainer says that the horse is maturing and not as sensitive to the commotion as he used to be.

California Chrome. Too good to be true. Like you, I think too much history is against him. Turning down multi million dollar offers, being a Cal bred, they all stack up. He hasn’t been tested recently, at all. Good and bad. I think he shipped too late. I do love the Los Al connection, though.

New York did not impress me much this year at all, but Samraat has looked amazing since he has been training on the Churchill surface. Sentimentally I will be rooting for Tapiture, his team deserves this win. Tapiture is another one that has proven to be battle tested.

A much better field than recent years.

[sparky6]

NBC keeps referring to California Chrome as “Cal bred,” but it sounds like “cow bred” which makes for a very entertaining sounding commentary.

I would love to see Rosie win. I have no basis for that other than I like her. I enjoy watching racing, but don’t know enough about it to even pretend to make a real pick.

How tall is Vicars In Trouble? They keep referring to him as “small” but I haven’t heard his height mentioned.

[Laurierace]

I am the world’s worst handicapper. If they had a bet for who would finish last I would be a zillionaire. That said, I went chalk in the oaks/derby double and have a live ticket with California Chrome, Danza, Dance With Fate or Ride on Curlin. Wicked Strong makes me nervous though.

[findeight]

Speaking of the Oaks, is that mare as big as she looked in the stretch drive clip I saw? Looked like a Large Junior in a ring full of medium Ponies.

I assume she is a Tappit, how closely related to Tapiture?

[Go_Fish]

California Chrome or Wicked Strong.

Candy Boy is my outside favorite because I love Gary Stevens and nothing would make me happier than to see him win today.

[Zuri]

LOL Laurierace. I never bet on horses for some reason, but I look at them on TV and decide as they approach the starting gate. I have done pretty well in my picks that way. I don’t know anything about racing, but I am fascinated watching it.

I can’t figure out how the jockeys get the lead changes and what lead you want to be on when. I also wondered why they switch the whip from right to left. I wish I had you all in my ear to explain stuff to me. One of these days I will learn how to read one of those racing forms? If that is the right word.

[CVPeg]

I’m thinking California Chrome will just be too hard to beat. And I also love Wicked Strong, so will do an exacta. Darn, Laura - wish I knew where the Oaks/Derby double was. Couldn’t find it on the NYRA site yesterday. I did hit the Oaks exacta.

Although I’ve also been going through the replays this morning, about to watch the rest. Some impressive performances from horses I never really knew much about. Funny thing is in The Rebel, Tapiture reminded me of Curlin, so had to shake that out of my head each time they called Ride On Curlin, who looked nothing like him. Tapiture had one heckuva game run in that race - although he looks awfully gangly. But, of course, that has never been a reason to not win The Derby. I’ll also do a long shot or two, so will probably include him.

Back to watching the rest of the prep replays…

[lilitiger2]

Wicked Strong
But that’s really because I like the name!
Family going with California Chrome.

i have no scientific reasoning AT ALL for this!
All in fun and like most people, really just want safe trips for everyone!

[Marney]

I am with California Chrome simply because I want a horse to come along and win it all… I love the other stories but a great horse will find a way and I hope he truly is as great as they think he is.

[axl]

Danza, although I’m sort of disappointed that he was named for the actor and not the wonderful Lynn Hall book!

[JGHIRETIRE]

In no particular order…I like Candy Boy because of Gary Stevens. His pedigree doesn’t really show that he can go the distance.
I like California Chrome - what’s not to like.
Danza is another interesting one as is Wicked Strong.
Can’t rule out Vicar’s in Trouble because of Rosie.
Now if I could just put them in the correct order…HA

[GottaQHFilly]

I’m rooting for Ride on Curlin.

[Laurierace]

[QUOTE=findeight;7561414]
Speaking of the Oaks, is that mare as big as she looked in the stretch drive clip I saw? Looked like a Large Junior in a ring full of medium Ponies.

I assume she is a Tappit, how closely related to Tapiture?[/QUOTE]
They are both by Tapit which in TB terms means they aren’t related at all.

[ACMEeventing]

[QUOTE=sparky6;7561400]
NBC keeps referring to California Chrome as “Cal bred,” but it sounds like “cow bred” which makes for a very entertaining sounding commentary.
.[/QUOTE]

:lol:
I kept hearing the same thing! I have no clue about strategically picking a trifecta, but I go with Chrome, Wicked, Vicar (in that order).

And how about Johnny Weir interviewing the horses? I couldn’t decide if I found it entertaining or annoying, but then remembered that whatever air time he has is less I have to listen to Donna Brothers

[ellebeaux]

Oh thank goodness someone brought up Johnny Weir, how goddawful! I mean, he’s funny and whatever but that was just so over the top for a supposedly serious horse race.

Can’t the Derby be about the horses?

[littlebaypony]

California Chrome because he looked impressive in his previous races.

[beaujolais]

CC, then Danza, then Intense Holiday, Candy Boy in there too (Gary is awesome)

[BlueLodge]

I like value, don’t know what the latest odds are but I’ve got some pennies on Samraat, like Ride on Curlin and, hmm, Wildcat Red has a lucky aura about him (might just be the name!) Talking of names, Commanding Curve has an impressive one. Give a dog …

If horse racing was a science, we’d all be millionaires.

[ottb_dressage1]

I love California Chrome, but am so afraid to love him too much, because there are just so many odds stacked against him to win today (Cal bred, favorite, relative front runner who could easily get caught in a speed dual), and I’d hate to feel let down that he didn’t win.
I also like Vicars In Trouble, Wicked Strong, Dance With Fate and Commanding Curve.