That was sort of Exhibit A for KR’s being a bit over the top, wasn’t it?
IF, however, what has been said above is not true, or the result of a personal pique (and I have no idea what is true and what is not here, and frankly don’t care too much anyway), then I might also be rather upset by those allegations.
I don’t know about the breeding #s, and again, I don’t really think that means much, other than the stallion is popular. He’s relatively young as eventing stallions go, so as was pointed out earlier, the first real test will be over the next 2-3 years, when the majority of his offspring are old enough for more than low-level competition.
What can be verified/explained, however, is the hubbub about the futurity results.
BEF has a great and very user-friendly website that ranks stallions based upon their futurity-entered offspring by discipline. You can sort the statistics in any number of ways, and there is also a “sire component ranking” tab that shows how each stallion did individually in 6 different evaluation categories (vet, frame & build, athleticism, disposition, trot, and walk). Data goes back to 2009. You can sort by all years or by individual years.
http://www.britishbreeding.org/Rankings.aspx
So, to revisit a quote from Jenny Jones about the issues with the Futurity:
If I remember rightly stallion results were beginning to be compared based on a stallion’s highest scoring offspring; top 3, I think it was. Less than three; the stallion wasn’t included. More than three; the lower scores were ignored. This gave a false result; a sort of selective average. Sheer weight of numbers therefore affected the results. This wouldn’t have been so bad had not the owner seen fit to crow over animals that had, with a proper handling of the statistics, effectively performed better.
I don’t know what the stallion owner has represented about these results, but the implication that “sheer weight of numbers therefore affected the results” is misleading, especially given how the Futurity publishes its ranking information.
You can read the data for yourself, but here is a summary, with some additional analysis of my own.
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Graf has, by far, the highest number of futurity entries for any eventing stallion. Using aggregate numbers from 2009-2011, he has 37, next is King’s Composer with 25, then Future Illusion with 21, then Primitive Proposal with 16. Stallions with less than 3 futurity offspring in the entire three years of recordkeeping, are not listed. On an individual year basis, individual stallions are listed. I think it is fair to limit the comparisons to stallions who at least have an average of one offspring in the futurity per year – if the three-year averages are being considered, the implication that the “3 offspring minimum” skewed the results is simply inaccurate.
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Based upon the full 2009-2011 period, the average the overall scores of Graf’s 37 offspring places him in 3rd place overall, behind Dollar du Murier (3 offspring), and Renkum Valention (4 offspring). He is ahead of Sir Shutterfly, Jumbo, Chilli Morning, Future Illusion, Catherston Springsteen, Billy Congo, Welton Justice, Primitive Proposal, Catherston Dazzler, Mighty Magic, Jaguar Mail, and a whole host of others. Going back to the contention that the # of offspring skewed the results, I would argue that it actually skewed the results against Graf – the two horses above him in the rankings only had 3 and 4 offspring in play respectively, a far less representative data set than Graf’s 37.
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With respect to the 2011 rankings (which is may be Jenny Jones specifically was referring to), Graf had 26 entries in eventing. The next highest stallion, Chilli Morning, had 8:
A. One of the categories ranked is “average of top 5 scores”. As would be expected, if a stallion did not have 5 offspring entered, then he was not ranked in this category. Graf finished first here.
B. The next category is “average of top 3 scores.” Again, as would be expected, if a stallion did not have 3 entries, then he was not ranked here. Graf was tops here, too.
C. The next category is “average of all scores.” Graf finished 3rd here with an average of 8.64, behind Chilli Morning (8 scores - 8.72) and Catherston Springsteen (5 scores - 8.71). If the SO represented that Graf had won this category, or had the highest average of all scores, then he was wrong to do that. The interesting thing here, however, is that if you take Graf’s top 8 scores (to put him even with Chilli Morning), Graf wins. In fact, the average of Graf’s top 23 scores puts him ahead of Chilli Morning. It is only when you add in the final 3 scores (out of 26) that he falls to third. Again, it appears that the fact that Graf had so many entries actually hurt him, rather than helped him here. In my view, the high average when he had so many more entries than other stallions makes his scores even more impressive.
D. Some highlights for Graf from the component scores, using 2009-2011 composite data (out of 69 stallions ranked):
Vet - 9th
Frame & Build - 4th
Athleticism - 5th
Disposition - 12th
Trot - 8th
Walk - 4th
Combined - 3rd (as described above)
But this is just futurity. We’ll find out whether all of this means anything in a few years.
Because this is probably tedious already, I’ve not fact-checked everything, but did so for some of the SO’s statements in the posts above about the 2011 futurity results:
2011- Grafenstolz 2nd in the eventing sire rankings
This is either ambiguous or mildly incorrect. He is an “eventing sire” and was second overall in all disciplines, but was the 3rd placing sire in eventing specifically, as described above.
6 of the top 12 foals were by Graf
This is an accurate statement. He further had 9 of the top 20.
The other statements I did not bother to check, but it looks like that most of the verifiable statements are true; don’t know about the unverifiable ones. 