The weather forecast I’ve seen shows over 3 feet of rain wherever Florence stalls out. Some projections have it stalling far enough inland that yes, Tryon could get nailed. I can’t believe there isn’t any plan in place with under 3 days to go.
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Yes - the competing horses are under FEI/USDA quarantine authority and cannot be easily moved. Depending on where the horses are from and their test results for infectious disease, some may not be able to be moved at all to avoid exposing the U.S. horse population.
Wow. I think it’s a huge factor that there is already flooding and oversaturation occurring in Tryon completely apart from Florence. Not trying to be an alarmist but it looks like a potentially very serious situation, even that far inland.
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That is the situation I was referring to on another thread where we were talking about construction delays caused by record rainfall earlier this year. As mentioned in the article, those mudslides sadly resulted in a fatality.
That area is about 15 miles west of TIEC, but all the construction going on around TIEC has left huge areas “de-vegetated” and very prone to development of mudpits / mudslides, etc.
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Here is the direct link to TIEC weather updates:
https://tryon2018.com/article/tryon-…eather-updates
And as others have mentioned - I hope they have a robust plan for providing potable water to horses and people.
Word from folks as far west as Hendersonville is that bottled water is already selling out as people start laying in supplies. And there were several tractor trailers lined up at a large discount store yesterday, with hundreds of crates of bottled water being carried out of the store and into the trailers. I am thinking they may be going to FEMA staging areas close to the coast, but I certainly hope the TIEC folks are working on securing as much bottled water as possible.
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You are not being alarmist at all. The denial here is dangerous. As I said, I have been through many Hurricanes in my life. I provide a link which is a preparedness list formulated after Andrew. BEAR IN MIND that this is only a Household recommendation for the amount of water to stock in the event of loss of power. All Floridians know the old adage, “Hide from wind, RUN from water.”. Every single available vessel should be filled. I say again, , this is only the amount of water for the people in a four person household. ADD HORSES TO THIS. Anecdotally, I have experienced much higher incidences of colic in hurricane events. There is no getting to a surgery center, folks.
https://www.facebook.com/denisphilli…Tjg&tn=K-R
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Did not think about the quarantine aspect, that makes for a big problem regarding moving horses to safer locations. I hope the stalls there are permenant, sturdy and not prone to flooding.
There was a post either earlier in this thread or the other hurricane related thread re water in stabling area during another storm earlier in the season. People working to sweep/push it out…
I had not thought of the colic risk mentioned above - barometric pressure changes, add some stress, scary.
Hope it all works out…but its hard to have an evacuation plan for this type of situation, literally 100’s of horses.
video of current conditions…https://www.facebook.com/mykhaylo.parkhomchuk/videos/1708332285931509/UzpfSTY5MDcxMTMyNToxMDE1NTQ1OTQyMzQ5NjMyNg/?comment_id=10155460436391326¬if_id=1536676527184081¬if_t=feed_comment_reply
Check out charlesowenhelmets on instagram stories. Behind the tents, is a big hill that is all bare dirt. If there is a hurricane like rains, that surely is not going to be safe and likely a mud slide will occur right into that area. Not sure if that is the trade show or what.
Airowearbodyprotectors on instagram also posted a pic of their set up, and it currently looks like they are on an island…
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I was at Hartpury, in Gloucestershire in 2007 at the World Para championships, when record rainfall added to king tides in the Severn created widespread flooding. The venue is well inland, and was not subject to wind.
Although the permanent stabling is beautiful, and situated on a hill, we had more than a foot of water pouring through the barns 24 hours a day. The venue ran out of water and food, and the military was delivering via helicopter. The FEI officials arrived the same way. I had to lead horses to and from the International ring in hip-deep water, and parking was unspeakable. There was no heat in the grooms’ quarters (although I managed to get it turned on the last two nights, it was July), so everything we owned was drenched. Philip Cheetham does a masterful job of organizing, and the CDI riders pulled out (although they couldn’t get off the grounds due to the flooding), which made more resources available, but it was a nightmare.
When we were competing at Lamplight, I think in 2009, we were warned that the facility was on tornado watch, and that if we arrived in the morning to discover that the barns were empty it would be because the horses had been evacuated to safer quarters during the night. That’s a very unsettling thought for horse owners in general, and for those of us with very expensive FEI horses who’ve travelled 2500 miles to compete it’s even more so, but the FEI barns closed at 10 p.m. and opened at 5 a.m., with NO exceptions. That was permanent stabling too…
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Informal poll: if you’re an owner of one of the horses at WEG, and had the opportunity and the means to pull out of the games and move your horse elsewhere based on what you know and understand about the threat of the incoming weather, would you ?
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NC Gov talking right now: “A monster of historic proportions like you have never seen before.” “Even after the hurricane has passed there will be days of rain and increased flooding.” " There is a possibility of up to 20" of rain"
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I posted on the Grooms’ quarters thread about hurricane Irene in 2011 and what it did to the Catskill Mountain towns in midstate NY. If that storm shifts south a bit and crawls it’s way inland like Irene did we could be in for a LOT of water.
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Interesting to see the current Weather Channel forecast for the area - sunshine on Friday and Saturday, with 60% chance of showers starting later in the day on Saturday. It would be fantastic if they could get XC done before any bands of the storm/rain move that far west https://weather.com/weather/5day/l/USNC0449:1:US
Others might disagree, but I think the Weather Channel is pretty much worthless except for its radar. And clickbait videos. As a forecasting tool, it seems like a joke anymore. 
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Seems as if they are paying attention now. http://www.chronofhorse.com/article/world-equestrian-games-prepares-for-possible-severe-weather-from-hurricane-florence
After watching all the videos on SM of the location, hell yes. I mean, if the Hurricane doesnt hit, they can always trailer back to the facility. The land looks so new and not settled, I see grass and mud everywhere in the future.
Accuweather, also similar in its current forecast https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/mi…recast/2114226
People appear to be assuming TIEC is going to get hurricane-like conditions, that is not yet guaranteed. Regardless of which site you prefer, a) torrential/hurricane rains for TIEC remain a possibility but not a certainty that far west and b) with hurricanes we all know it is still too far out to know which path it will take inland. With a storm this size it is of course important to consider the range of possibilities and be prepared for the contingencies, but perhaps it is the native Floridian in me that thinks it is premature to assume the worst!
TIEC is usually an evacuation site for coastal storms.
