Hurricane Plan for WEG?

[fordtraktor]

I am from mudslide country, the facilities look too far from the hills to be at risk and the hills are pretty low to have something like that happen. It isn’t like the showgrounds is built into a mountainside. I wouldn’t be worried about that. I am sure it will be very muddy but I don’t know about danger. It’s outside of the Tropical Storm anticipated winds…so it may be windy but not too awful.

I hope they can move the events around in anticipation of the storm arrival. Running XC early Saturday may be a good solution.

I think when caffeinated said the ground was already saturated it is because she is in MD I think, where it has been raining for a week and the ground IS quite saturated. I don’t think Tryon has had the same weather.

The rain today/yesterday is completely unrelated to the hurricane.

[skydy]

I go to the NOAA National Hurricane Center website. No hype. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/111458.shtml?

[Samantha37]

So is everyone who planned on going still going? Or are people cancelling their trips? Specifically looking at those who are driving there.

[DownYonder]

I just pulled these images off the NOAA National Hurricane Center website.

I added the callouts to show the approximate location of TIEC.

These of course are based on current projections, but if Florence holds to that itinerary, TIEC will get less than 2 inches of rain (1-7 day forecast). And it has a 20-30% chance of tropical storm force winds (1 minute average equal to or greater than 39 mph). The wind speed projection was made at 8 AM EDT today, and will no doubt change as Florence moves closer.

[Xctrygirl]

Per Eventing nation there’s a press conference at 5 today to discuss their Hurricane plans.

Em

[Jealoushe]

https://www.horseandhound.co.uk/features/tryon-weg-first-impressions-blog-664255

[173north]

@saje

I posted on the Grooms’ quarters thread about hurricane Irene in 2011 and what it did to the Catskill Mountain towns in midstate NY. If that storm shifts south a bit and crawls it’s way inland like Irene did we could be in for a LOT of water.

https://www.chronofhorse.com/forum/f…4#post10224744

My parents had a ski house in Vermont, at the base of a little hill, next to a cute brook. The rain from Irene turned the brook into a river and it washed away the house that had stood there for 250 years, as well as the highway next to it. There were towns that were inaccessible for days because roads had been washed out.

Mountains and rain can have very unexpected consequences, especially in an area that has already had a wet summer. I have friends who are vendors at WEG and the vendor areas are already flooded from the light rain this week. Trees will fall and take power lines, roads may be inaccessible. If I worked at TIEC I would be shipping in water by the truckloads. Better safe than sorry when you have 500 of the world’s most valuable horses and their support staff on your property.

[Canterwell]

What worries me is that with every hour the ferocity of Florence and its effects are increasing. First responders will be so stretched, and pulled away from their locales to areas of greatest need. Even though Tryon is well inland, if water and power supplies are down for more than a few days, it could be really serious trying to maintain good conditions for the horses, and many of the ones from overseas can’t be trailered out to other locations because of the quarantine issues.

[Pico_Banana]

@Samantha37

So is everyone who planned on going still going? Or are people cancelling their trips? Specifically looking at those who are driving there.

I’m supposed to be heading down with 2 friends, flying to Charlotte Friday morning. We are trying to decide what to do in terms of travel but we are mostly still planning on going. Not sure if that is colossally stupid or not.

[Samantha37]

@Pico Banana

I’m supposed to be heading down with 2 friends, flying to Charlotte Friday morning. We are trying to decide what to do in terms of travel but we are mostly still planning on going. Not sure if that is colossally stupid or not.

I’m totally with you!!! I’m supposed to be driving down tomorrow afternoon, coming back on Saturday. I just don’t know if it is the dumbest thing ever to head TOWARDS a hurricane of this magnitude!

[Hilary]

I am worried about getting out on Sunday too! I have to be at work on Monday. Maybe the presser will give us some idea because if they decide to shift XC to another day then I just won’t go. I’m not going 900 miles to watch eventing dressage in the rain! And is it realy smart to go TO the area where they may have to be evacuating. I don’t really have a sense of the size of NC- right now Accuweather says Tryon will see a big rainstorm on Monday. But up until then it’s just showery

[KPF]

I was supposed to leave central VA Thurs morning and come back Monday morning-- I have no idea if I will go at this point. Would be bummed to miss it after spending money on rental and planning it for almost a year. Sigh. I am going to make a final decision tomorrow I guess-- I have a 4wd truck with new tires but hate driving in rain and long drives alone (meeting a friend down there who is already there.) I don’t want to be driving into a sh*tstorm!

[TNeventer]

Still planning on going. Leaving Thurs morning, coming back Sunday night. Current forecasts show tryon getting minimal rain, possibly even less rain than my hometown expects to receive from Florence. Of course, if there is a dramatic change in the forecast on Wednesday night, that might change things.

[skydy]

The latest rain forecast;https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/152311.shtml?rainqpf#contents
I don’t think anyone will be flying into Charlotte…

[Saskatoonian]

anyone see the press conference? Not expecting much but still…

[mishmash]

We are still planning o going. Rented a house at Lake Lure and there are 8 of us, four already down there. Every weather site I look at says something different.

[Hilary]

@skydy

The latest rain forecast;https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/152311.shtml?rainqpf#contents
I don’t think anyone will be flying into Charlotte…

But when you look at the Charlotte Airport’s flight view page it shows “showers”. No heavy rain until Monday. Not getting the same message makes it hard to know what to do!

[rothmpp]

@2tempe

About 10 years ago, I was living in Cleveland OHIO; Hurricane Ike came barreling all the way from Texas, hit us w/ significant wind and rain. My area and many others around us were without power for ONE WEEK as a result of wind/tree damage. Part of that problem was that power repair crews were so overburdened we had to wait for help from out of state. My point here is that you cant underestimate the potential for problems.

Very true. I was part of the management team for region 2 championships in Cincinnati that week. While we had power, there were so much sporadic power outages that we were warning anyone coming from north or west that they could have an issue finding fuel, particularly diesel, within an hour of the farm. Even if there is fuel at the stations, without power they can’t get it out of the tanks.

Hopefully the rain models will stay light and it will all go off as planned, albeit somewhat damp

I hope that TIEC has enough generator power that they can at least get water for the horses, even if everyone else is pretty miserable if the worst happens.

[ladybugsbw]

The latest model just showed that it is going to turn as it comes to shore and go directly toward tryon/greenville area after coming onshore near wilmington. If this occurs they think the area of Asheville to Tryon could get 12+ inches of rain… They said it is going to just sit over the greenville / charlotte area for a few days…
If this happens there is just no way…

[splitrockfarmnc]

Coming from the Triangle area here… Leaving tomorrow midday as planned and will stay as long as the show is running, rain or shine. What I’m undecided about is if we will stay in the hotel until the worst passes, or try to get home. I guess it all depends on timing. Who knows what we’ll find when we get back. Personally I think some of the estimated rainfall totals are low since they’re predicting a major stall out with this storm (rain for days), but I admit I have no science to back that up.
However, echoing what others have said, I think the already wet ground poses a significant risk for trees coming down, which means power outages. Seems risky for everyone involved.