You can’t compare the population in the 1800s from now - it was way more diverse back then - most yards had their own separate breeding pools, and most people were limited to selecting a stallion either within their local geography, or their means – which made it so the population remained relatively stable and unique.
Then WWI&WWII happened, the gene pool & genetic diversity took an absolute nosedive, and now, with the advent of shipped/cooled/frozen, you can have any stallion you want in a matter of a click – and now, you are breeding for sales and inspections, which means you will select stallions that are popular or trendy – which means that trendy/popular stallions are being selected over local ones, which further increases the chances of a population becoming less and less diverse.
I also would personally refrain from using the word 'hysteria’ to describe the reactions seen here and on FB – it cheapens the legitimate concern that SO and MOs should have about this disease, and it’s implicitly insulting. Who knows - it could very well explain the many abortions some people have had over the years, particularly when light is shed on the fact that one or both of the parents are carriers. The amount of breeders is getting smaller and smaller every year - it’s so expensive, it’s very risky on the mare, it’s a huge financial risk, and it’s a labor of love – SOs and MOs absolutely should be concerned and should have the knowledge/information at hand to stack the cards in their favor and prevent not only loss of life, but loss of finances – breeding is fast becoming the wealthy’s game, despite the fact some of the best breeders in the US are not independently wealthy… Can we really afford to lose the breeders we have in the US over something that is preventable?
I think its ridiculous to accuse me of not seeing the forest for the trees… I started the thread, I already discussed the topic in 2013 and I still have the same pretty solid opinion now that I had in 2013. And which relieves me most is what I read from the scientist who developed the test and probably has the most insight information about WFFS of all people. It sounds exactly like my opinion.
What is important now is to test as many horses as possible in order to get more information how far it is spread. For the future I would simply avoid to breed carrier to carrier and to require either test results from any horse used for breeding or clear certificates of both the parents of the the horse being bred. And thats it… Nice and easy.
No witch hunts, no hysteria, no rules based on ideas of single persons…
I think I wrote this about 10 times already in this thread and I am will to repeat it as many times as needed… Very simple approach and I would bet that in 20 years from now the numbers are down anyhow…
As someone has brought up the financial component of breeding in regards to WFFS, I thought I would share a few things I’ve been mulling over.
I speculate that it’s the non-European breeders (specifically, non-German and non-Dutch) that have the most to lose if WFFS carriers are immediately phased out of breeding. Removing carrier breeding stock and continuing to breed would require two things: A. Access to replacement stock/bloodlines and B. Being able to afford them. Germany especially has the easiest access to a quantity of affordable and well bred animals. American breeders have been discussing horse prices (especially comparing them - North American vs German) for as long as I can tell that NA breeders have had skin in the warmblood breeding game.
It’s pretty acknowledged that while NA can offer competitively recognizable/desirable bloodlines, horses purchased here cost more. So telling breeders to eliminate all carriers from their stock - what about breeding operations that have three, four, or five carrier mares (from a foundation mare to their program who may have been a carrier)? Can they A. find those bloodlines elsewhere and B. can they afford to replace those mares?
If we’re going to lobby around financial repercussions of WFFS, I suspect that for many programs, being told to eliminate carriers from breeding would be catastrophic, financially. (And that doesn’t even factor in the programs that have inadvertently bred the gene through their program, having introduced a carrier in the advent of their program but then have spent years breeding for specific pedigrees and bloodlines, and had the gene continue through their program. That’s a tremendous sum put into semen, reproductive work-ups, vaccinations, training, etc.)
The second key point that stands out to me from a financial standpoint is that the WFFS test actually makes breeding less of a financial gamble - even with carriers being permitted to breed. Prior to the test it was an unknown risk that got claused in with the “risk of breeding” so to speak - mares would abort, reabsorb a pregnancy, or a foal would be born “not quite right”. Now that we can test for WFFS, breeders can see if their mare is a carrier - and even if she is, they don’t have to risk thousands of dollars put into semen, vet work, vaccinations, medication, and anything else affiliated with breeding. They can find a non-carrier stallion and they won’t risk losing that money to a WFFS/WFFS loss.
I don’t need a history lesson. The fact remains that WFFS has been with us for a very long time and warmblood breeding is simply not in imminent danger of collapse.
Yes, WFFS is a legitimate concern, but it simply does not warrant the present reaction. I have followed this issue on the front line since Hilltop’s announcement. There is no word other than “hysteria” that adequately captures the reaction of far too many folks, including many who have no stake whatsoever in this issue. The problem has been identified and the mechanism for immediately mitigating the risk of WFFS is known. And yet there are members calling the registries demanding (yes, demanding) that the registries immediately disclose all known carriers, that licenses/approvals be immediately revoked from stallions that are carriers, that foals that are carriers not be issued registrations, that mares that are carriers no longer be allowed to breed, and on and on. Even the genetic experts on WFFS have not recommended such actions! Virtually all other registry functions have ground to a halt while the registries attempt to field member concerns.
Your “woe to the breeder” rant is a just another example of the senseless wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth on this issue.
I’m aware you’re trying to be condescending, and I am just going to answer your response to the best of my abilities without returning the favor since I find being condescending is not really conducive to discussion.
You mention that “it has been around for a very long time” - however, that is just unproven theory at this point. The originator of the disease has not been discovered yet. So if it has not been isolated, how are you able to say with any certainty at all how long it has been around?
Furthermore, if we don’t know how long it has been around, how can you measure the rate in which it has increased or decreased in the gene pool? You can’t compare today to yesterday, sorry, so you can’t really say with any certainty how fast or how slow the carrier gene is spreading through a population. We simply don’t know. Also, the last 150-200 years was a very different breeding regime – live cover up until very recently from a genetic standpoint. Shipped/cooled/frozen completely changes the game and yes, it will impact the diversity of the genepool going forward. So, it may have been at 1% for the last 150-200 years and then bounced up to 10% in the last 15 thanks to a very well known, very common stallion – or, it might have been 30% and trickled down to the numbers we have now. We just don’t know.
We simply don’t know enough about the disease right now to know if carriers/non-affecteds don’t also have issues related to the disease.
What you can see, anyone can see, is that multiple major, trending stallions have tested as carriers.
It’s really simple math. The WB population is thinning. The amount of available sires that share similar bloodlines is increasing. We are breeding for sales and inspections. We are following a trend. Anyone who can observe a pattern can see that taking a cavalier attitude towards a genetic disease when your founding and/or most popular stallion[s] are carriers is not a sound strategy.
It was not a “woe-to-breeders” speech. It was an observation, made about the fact many breeders, some well-known on COTH, some long-time here, have stepped back from breeding because it is very expensive and not very financially rewarding and have said so, here and in other places. :winkgrin: To me, it makes sense to try to stack the deck in your favor, test what you can, and prevent more losses/aborts in the future.
So, there’s obviously many opinions here. I think you misunderstand mine, since I never said to “immediately revoke licensing for current stallions”, nor that “registries must disclose all carrier stallions.”
I haven’t seen anyone in this thread be hysteric.
I don’t think that it is a good idea to sit on your hands about this. YMMV, as it obviously does. I think testing should be mandatory, yes, and that people should be advised to never breed carrier to carrier. A long term solution might be in the cards when we find ~20 years down the road that the carrier population is not decreasing, as I doubt it will, since many popular and trending stallions are carriers and, down the road, will likely be linebred to because they are phenomenal athletes.
The point is, people should be discussing it because it is obviously a very complex problem that has repercussions no matter which way you look at it. Whether that’s to limit the studbook of carriers, cull them completely, or ignore them, there’s a negative to every angle you observe, and discussion should be happening. Sorry you don’t agree.
I agree very much with Bent Hickory and I think it is hysteria to discuss ideas spooking around in the heads of some people which will not make any difference to the problem at all…
there were so many in this thread it’s amazing…
WFFs carriers might be handicapped in some dubious way,
breeders who do not cull carriers are unethical and mainly thinking about multiplying and money
if you don’t restrict breeding carriers. warm bloods are doomed And probably some more I did not keep track off…
what sense does it make to discuss things with no scientific background which are just in the heads of some people…
I don’t think I agree with you on that. US breeders have been amazingly open about the situation. They went up and beyond to get horses tested while the Europeans (specifically the Germans) are not open about it at all so far. I wonder why if they have the resources you assume.
While I don’t think this is even remotely possible, let’s just assume that left unchecked/unregulated, in 20 years, every single desirable breeding stallion and every single desirable breeding mare in the warmblood breeding population is a carrier for WFFS. (Oh the horrors!) What then is the outcome of your worst nightmare?
Mendelian genetics informs us on WFFS carrier to carrier breedings that:
25% of the foal crop die (undoubtably a significant loss)
50% of the foal crop remain carriers
25% of the foal crop are clear
The situation must “improve” thereafter as clear foals enter the breeding population. I don’t need to be a geneticist to comfortably predict that your absolute worse case scenario still won’t bring about the demise of warmblood breeding.
One thing that has to be remembered is that each breeding of a carrier is like a single coin toss. Although there is a 50-50 chance that a single breeding will produce a clear or a carrier, there is nothing to prevent a series of either clears or carriers from a carrier. Just like a coin toss that produces nine heads out of ten tosses doesn’t change the odds for each coin toss.
Also, we do not know if the allele provides a benefit or a detriment in a horse over a horse life span and work. Everything that is said right now is pure speculation, even from “genetics experts”. As people have said over and over, modern breeding is nothing like breeding practices of the past, and any speculation over the age of the allele would have to take that into account.
Manni, I’m not sure we we’re talking about the same thing? Let me…see if I can’t clarify what I said at all, to see if you can confirm that we’re on the same page (or looking at two different things)?
I’m not talking at all about the testing responses (North American vs Europe’s). I absolutely agree with you: US breeders have done a fabulous job getting out ahead of this in making statements, testing, and putting themselves out there with their candidness. It’s very refreshing.
That said, what I was responding to with my comment was that Beowulf mentioned US breeders not being independently wealthy (and can we afford to lose breeders over something that’s preventable), and looking at financial loss affiliated with WFFS. I’ve put the quote below, but it’s post #415 if you want to see it in full.
“MOs absolutely should be concerned and should have the knowledge/information at hand to stack the cards in their favor and prevent not only loss of life, but loss of finances – breeding is fast becoming the wealthy’s game, despite the fact some of the best breeders in the US are not independently wealthy… Can we really afford to lose the breeders we have in the US over something that is preventable?”
So when I talk about resources, I’m talking about access to N/N breeding stock. If “we” (breeders, registries, The Powers That Be - this is more a thought experiment than anything) summarily ban all carriers (N/WFFS) from breeding, then we have people who are no longer breeding (or breeding at reduced capacity) because they lost their breeding mares, and people who would like to continue breeding but need to replace their N/WFFS mares with N/N mares.
In that situation (replacing N/WFFS stock with N/N stock) people need to have access to comparable quality and pedigrees for it to be of value. While North America absolutely has quality horses, I think (and especially with more obscure pedigrees) it is easier to find horses (at a more affordable price) in Europe.
So in this hypothetical (N/WFFS horses aren’t permitted to breed anymore) any German breeder with a N/WFFS mare that they can no longer breed, may have an easier time going out and finding a horse with a similar pedigree, for a more affordable price, compared to a Canadian or American breeder in the same situation.
Ultimately, it’s a response to the idea that prohibiting N/WFFS horses from breeding is a money-saving prospect. I don’t think it is. And then of course, the people who stand to see the most financial loss from it are the North American breeders. Testing and publishing results makes breeding less financially risky because it means people can avoid knowingly breeding N/WFFS horses together (so the 25% chance of a WFFS/WFFS foal that’s non-viable is completely averted, which also means that breeders aren’t out the price of semen, reproductive exams, vaccinations, and any other affiliated breeding costs). Keeping N/WFFS horses from breeding entirely isn’t a cost-saving measure. Testing & publishing results is.
I don’t know if that clears up the post of mine you quoted at all? (And if we were on the same page or not?)
You make it sound like a carrier is something undesirable… based on your personal opinion. How do you know that???
as long as it is not proven that being a carrier will have bad consequences for that horse or not… its not even worth talking about. and for sure not giving it a negative touch
I think I understood very well what you were talking about. But your model might be great in your head, its not in reality. If it would be true, American breeders might be less open about testing because they know it will ruin them and European breeders would be open to test because they could care less because they could replace their breeding stock. And I think their reactions prove that your model is very wrong. The Europeans who have so many resources are totally against it and the Americans risk their valuable non replaceable breeding stock in order to test… Somehow I assume its not that easy how you think to replace broodmares and stallions… Not sure how many horses you bred, but it took me many years to have the perfect broodmare who produces offspring which I really like. Not sure how to replace her if she would be culled from breeding if I would test her and your model would apply… I don’t think European breeders who cultivated their mare lines for centuries would agree with you
No, I don’t imagine any breeder would at all respond lightly to a unilateral decree saying “don’t breed these horses” that they’ve so carefully curated breeding stock, and poured so very many resources (time, emotions, financial, etc) into - regardless of where these breeders are located. (Frankly, nor should they.) And I think that any breeder who ends up in that situation (again, regardless of location) is also going to be at a fiscal disadvantage. (Then of course, there’s the fact that there will never be a “perfect” or “identical” replacement for any horse - even full siblings as sires or dams make it clear that there’s more to it than just having a similar - or in that case, identical - pedigree.)
But at the very base line, I think it’s fair to say that European breeders have access to more horses, more bloodlines, at a wider price range than North American ones do. (The success of the Hannoverian, Oldenburg, and Westfalen auctions are a great example of why I say this. The fohlenboerse site is another good example. These aren’t resources that exist for a “strictly” North American breeding community in the same way - I would love to see something like them in the future, and a thriving NA breeding community to that degree! And sincerely hope to get there at some point in the future, but in this moment, I think it’s disingenuous to try to say that the two are completely equal in that way.)
To argue that N/WFFS horses shouldn’t be bred because not breeding them is a better way to not-lose-money (and subsequently, not see more American breeders leaving the business) is a premise I don’t think I can agree with, and I would hate for that to turn into an arguing point for why N/WFFS horses shouldn’t be bred. I don’t think it’s relevant at all.
Additionally, I’m also pleased to see that no registry or organization is saying that N/WFFS horses shouldn’t be bred. The NA breeders are doing a very good job of promoting the idea that N/WFFS does not make a horse “defective” (or of lesser quality) and I think that’s done a good job stabilizing NA breeding groups to no small degree - there’s an active attempt to promote that being a WFFS carrier isn’t a stigma, so many of the breeders that I see, are encouraged to test and report the results regardless of what they may be because there’s a supportive and encouraging community identifying that a N/WFFS result in a horse isn’t the end of one’s prospects (and hopefully this attitude continues to carry over to the registries, which so far it seems to: they encourage that N/WFFS horses not be bred to each other, but make no statements that N/WFFS horses shouldn’t be bred at all).
Honestly, I can’t speak to the failure of the major German stations and stallion owners to be responsive to the idea of testing and publishing. I think it’s a shame. “Maintain the status quo and it will all die down” perhaps (thinking that it will all recede the way it did after the 2013 test came out)? I know I’ve seen several non-North American breeders share their test results in the facebook group which I think is heartening, but do you know if a german-language group has been curated to the same effect of the main english-oriented one on FB? I imagine having a group of german breeders echoing similar sentiments (A N/WFFS result isn’t the end of the world, it doesn’t mean that the horse has been devalued or cannot be bred, there should be no stigma about it) would help tremendously. Frankly, I give a lot of credit to the NA breeders who have done such a good job being candid and coming forward with their results. I think it helps enormously to have that type of presence (and role model) shaping the narrative.
In my thinking being the carrier of a gene for a deadly disease is bad, whether it’s WFFS or hemophilia in humans. Just because there is now a test that, if used religiously by all breeders, can prevent affected foals means that the test sellers will make oodles of money for the foreseeable future if breeders think carrier status is inconsequential and/or harmless and continue to breed them.
Once a mare owner gets a clear filly from a carrier mare, s/he should breed the clear.
Several years from now what else will we be able to test for and select to some degree? Start culling now for WFFS and then a few years it will be cull for some other reason, etc.
Manni01 has it right. this is about making an informed decision to avoid an unnecessary foal death, not about trying to get rid of all carriers from breeding
Just suppose there is some as yet unknown benefit to the allele. Suppose in a carrier it affects the tendons and ligaments in such a way that expressive movement or the ability to stretch is enhanced. That isn’t a farfetched speculation.
And then look at the results in the TB of breeding the sire descendants of Waxy; his genetic mutation has almost completely driven out the other Y chromosome in horses whose sire lines derive from the TB. This is what happens when the results of a gene that offers a benefit are selected for in breeding. That’s the mutation of just one gene that has come to dominate the whole population.
Or, for that matter, look at blue eyed humans in Denmark. Both of those are harmless, as far as we know; this one may confer a benefit to carriers but is deadly when carriers are bred together, somewhat like sickle cell anaemia in humans. That disease can be controlled if carriers don’t breed to each other, but humans being what they are, they often don’t choose have genetic testing before breeding.
Do you really think that all WB horse breeders will test before breeding when the current wisdom seems to be that this is nothing really to worry about because it’s so rare and doesn[t seem to affect carrier health, i.e. lets just keep on keeping on because our business is involved.
Odd that you say you want non-speculative, fact-based discussions, but then bring in speculative, non-fact based opinions yourself (see: speculating how long it has been in a population, speculating that there are appropriate recommendations/actions being developed and not inaction, speculating about the future of the registry, etc). Which is it?
So it is okay for you to speculate and draw conjecture, but it is not okay for others to ask questions or speculate what might happen either way?
I think, again, that you are assuming something that I have not said or implied, and are using hyperbole in your responses to me. Why, I’m not sure - do you always talk this way to people?
I think my “worst nightmare”, since you used those words, would be seeing a foal come to term and suffer horribly.
Your only comment about “25% of the foal crop dying” is that it’s a significant loss (of what? finances? bloodlines?), not that, it’d be significantly awful for the individual foal that was produced that suffered horribly. To me, that’s where I would draw the line. We have a test, we have a way to prevent it – why is it so untenable to suggest some sort of protocol put in place to prevent affected individuals?
How is seeing that the amount of carriers is not decreasing “not even remotely possible”? Doesn’t that contradict your earlier statement, in which you speculated that the disease had been around a long time and therefore must be relatively stable? Which is it?
Your breakdown of “Mendelian Genetics” is how modes of inheritance works in an individual, not across an entire population. Unfortunately, as Vineyridge said in her response to you, there’s nothing to stop a series of 50/50 tosses from having a spree in either direction. In your hypothetical situation, you also don’t address the loss of individuals in that population – if we have 100 individuals born, and 25 of them die, that leaves 75 (25 clears, and 50 carriers) individuals left, and how many of those actually are bred? Probably not that many. 25? And, what is the breakdown for clear/carriers in that? Then what happens when those 25 breed? In your hypothetical situation, you’re seeing a loss of diversity at minimum, and probably a loss of clears as well.
Of course, that is all speculation based on the hypothetical situation you proposed – but that is, quite literally, how hypothesis are made – we have limited evidence about this disease, and it clearly needs further insight and investigation.
Simple. I carried all your wild and unfettered speculation to its logical end --> all breeding animals are carriers. And through simple logic and scientific application of well understood principles, I demonstrated that this “doomsday scenario” does not and will not bring about the end of warmblood breeding. That’s how logical and rational people address illogical and irrational arguments.
As for “speculating how long it’s been in the population,” while you may not understand this, an opinion of an expert is evidence, not speculation; whereas an opinion of a layman (such as yourself) is just speculation. And expert opinion can’t be refuted by your “say so.”
As for “appropriate recommendations/actions being developed and not inaction,” I speak from first-hand knowledge not speculation. I’m not guessing, I know. Knowledge of what is actually happpening is again not speculation.
The rest of your post is just further speculation, without a single shred of evidence, fact or logical thought.
