Important news!! WFFS is finally recognized

[halt]

@Bent Hickory

Simple. I carried all your wild and unfettered speculation to its logical end --> all breeding animals are carriers. And through simple logic and scientific application of well understood principles, I demonstrated that this “doomsday scenario” does not and will not bring about the end of warmblood breeding. That’s how logical and rational people address illogical and irrational arguments.

As for “speculating how long it’s been in the population,” while you may not understand this, an opinion of an expert is evidence, not speculation; whereas an opinion of a layman (such as yourself) is just speculation. And expert opinion can’t be refuted by your “say so.”

As for “appropriate recommendations/actions being developed and not inaction,” I speak from first-hand knowledge not speculation. I’m not guessing, I know. Knowledge of what is actually happpening is again not speculation.

The rest of your post is just further speculation, without a single shred of evidence, fact or logical thought.

When someone doesn’t have much substance to contribute to a discussion, they revert to insulting other posters’ character or arguments rather than offering logical counterpoints. It’s interesting to me that both you and Manni leap to hyperbole yet call other people hysterical.

“You know”, but don’t offer any proof in your argument. Okay. :encouragement:

I’ll break down my key points, since they seem to have been lost in the kerfluffle of dramatic responses:

Fact: We don’t know how long it has been in the population (but you speculated/estimated 150-200 years)
Fact: We don’t know the rate in which it has spread or decreased in the population (but you speculated it was stable)
Fact: We don’t know how carrier status impacts carrier horses (but you speculated it doesn’t)
Fact: We don’t know know the true extent of the percentage of carriers in the population (but you speculated the %)
Fact: We do know that several major stallions (including a stallion that started a dynasty line of sport sons for dressage) are carriers.

So, pointing out that we don’t know these things (and therefore, need to learn more about this disease) makes me illogical, speculative, and irrational. Got it. :encouragement:

I never once said the WB population was doomed or that there was some imminent apocalypse hinging on this. You are reading into a lot that isn’t there and I get the sense you are channeling a lot of personal frustration WRT other people’s responses elsewhere to me, but I’m going to bow out of this before you assume some other aspect of our lives/horses/guacamole is hideously doomed and irrevocably beyond repair.

It was a riveting read and I look forward to us learning more about the disease, and seeing what precautions, if any, are taken by our registries.

[beowulf]

@Bent Hickory

Simple. I carried all your wild and unfettered speculation to its logical end --> all breeding animals are carriers. And through simple logic and scientific application of well understood principles, I demonstrated that this “doomsday scenario” does not and will not bring about the end of warmblood breeding. That’s how logical and rational people address illogical and irrational arguments.

As for “speculating how long it’s been in the population,” while you may not understand this, an opinion of an expert is evidence, not speculation; whereas an opinion of a layman (such as yourself) is just speculation. And expert opinion can’t be refuted by your “say so.”

As for “appropriate recommendations/actions being developed and not inaction,” I speak from first-hand knowledge not speculation. I’m not guessing, I know. Knowledge of what is actually happpening is again not speculation.

The rest of your post is just further speculation, without a single shred of evidence, fact or logical thought.

When someone doesn’t have much substance to contribute to a discussion, they revert to insulting other posters’ character or arguments rather than offering logical counterpoints. It’s interesting to me that both you and Manni leap to hyperbole yet call other people hysterical.

“You know”, but don’t offer any proof in your argument. Okay. :encouragement:

I’ll break down my key points, since they seem to have been lost in the kerfluffle of dramatic responses:

Fact: We don’t know how long it has been in the population (but you speculated/estimated 150-200 years)
Fact: We don’t know the rate in which it has spread or decreased in the population (but you speculated it was stable)
Fact: We don’t know how carrier status impacts carrier horses (but you speculated it doesn’t)
Fact: We don’t know know the true extent of the percentage of carriers in the population (but you speculated the %)
Fact: We do know that several major stallions (including a stallion that started a dynasty line of sport sons for dressage) are carriers.

So, pointing out that we don’t know these things (and therefore, need to learn more about this disease) makes me illogical, speculative, and irrational. Got it. :encouragement:

I never once said the WB population was doomed or that there was some imminent apocalypse hinging on this. You are reading into a lot that isn’t there and I get the sense you are channeling a lot of personal frustration WRT other people’s responses elsewhere to me, but I’m going to bow out of this before you assume some other aspect of our lives/horses/guacamole is hideously doomed and irrevocably beyond repair.

It was a riveting read and I look forward to us learning more about the disease, and seeing what precautions, if any, are taken by our registries.

[SnicklefritzG]

The veterinary geneticist who developed the test said that based on her research, the mutation happened 170+ years ago. When asked if she could name the source, she said she would rather keep it confidential at least for now. Without seeing the details of her work, I think it would be reasonable to believe what Winand said as she developed the test.

Which stallion are you referring to when you mention that “several major stallions are carriers…including one who started a dynasty line of sporthorses” ?

@halt

When someone doesn’t have much substance to contribute to a discussion, they revert to insulting other posters’ character or arguments rather than offering logical counterpoints. It’s interesting to me that both you and Manni leap to hyperbole yet call other people hysterical.

“You know”, but don’t offer any proof in your argument. Okay. :encouragement:

I’ll break down my key points, since they seem to have been lost in the kerfluffle of dramatic responses:

Fact: We don’t know how long it has been in the population (but you speculated/estimated 150-200 years)
Fact: We don’t know the rate in which it has spread or decreased in the population (but you speculated it was stable)
Fact: We don’t know how carrier status impacts carrier horses (but you speculated it doesn’t)
Fact: We don’t know know the true extent of the percentage of carriers in the population (but you speculated the %)
Fact: We do know that several major stallions (including a stallion that started a dynasty line of sport sons for dressage) are carriers.

So, pointing out that we don’t know these things (and therefore, need to learn more about this disease) makes me illogical, speculative, and irrational. Got it. :encouragement:

I never once said the WB population was doomed or that there was some imminent apocalypse hinging on this. You are reading into a lot that isn’t there and I get the sense you are channeling a lot of personal frustration WRT other people’s responses elsewhere to me, but I’m going to bow out of this before you assume some other aspect of our lives/horses/guacamole is hideously doomed and irrevocably beyond repair.

It was a riveting read and I look forward to us learning more about the disease, and seeing what precautions, if any, are taken by our registries.

[Manni01]

@beowulf

When someone doesn’t have much substance to contribute to a discussion, they revert to insulting other posters’ character or arguments rather than offering logical counterpoints. It’s interesting to me that both you and Manni leap to hyperbole yet call other people hysterical.

“You know”, but don’t offer any proof in your argument. Okay. :encouragement:

I’ll break down my key points, since they seem to have been lost in the kerfluffle of dramatic responses:

Fact: We don’t know how long it has been in the population (but you speculated/estimated 150-200 years)
Fact: We don’t know the rate in which it has spread or decreased in the population (but you speculated it was stable)
Fact: We don’t know how carrier status impacts carrier horses (but you speculated it doesn’t)
Fact: We don’t know know the true extent of the percentage of carriers in the population (but you speculated the %)
Fact: We do know that several major stallions (including a stallion that started a dynasty line of sport sons for dressage) are carriers.

So, pointing out that we don’t know these things (and therefore, need to learn more about this disease) makes me illogical, speculative, and irrational. Got it. :encouragement:

I never once said the WB population was doomed or that there was some imminent apocalypse hinging on this. You are reading into a lot that isn’t there and I get the sense you are channeling a lot of personal frustration WRT other people’s responses elsewhere to me, but I’m going to bow out of this before you assume some other aspect of our lives/horses/guacamole is hideously doomed and irrevocably beyond repair.

It was a riveting read and I look forward to us learning more about the disease, and seeing what precautions, if any, are taken by our registries.

WOW talking about spreading rumors… You are a perfect example. The stallion you are probably talking about is not tested and there is no proof at all that he is a carrier…

[Bent_Hickory]

@beowulf

Fact: We don’t know how long it has been in the population (but you speculated/estimated 150-200 years)

Your statement is not fact. An expert in the field studying WFFS has stated that the allele has been in the population 150-200 years. You have offered no evidence to the contrary.

@beowulf

Fact: We don’t know the rate in which it has spread or decreased in the population (but you speculated it was stable)

Correct, we don’t know the rate. But so what? Please explain why this matters. I’ve demonstrated that 100% saturation of the allele in the breeding population will not bring about the demise of the warmblood population and in fact, once that level of saturation is reached (if even possible), continued breeding can only reduce the saturation.

@beowulf

Fact: We don’t know how carrier status impacts carrier horses (but you speculated it doesn’t)

Your statement is not fact. An expert in the field studying WFFS has stated that carriers are not negatively affected. You have offered no evidence to the contrary.

@beowulf

Fact: We don’t know know the true extent of the percentage of carriers in the population (but you speculated the %)

Correct, we don’t know the percentage. Again, so what? Please explain why this matters. I’ve demonstrated that 100% saturation of the allele in the breeding population will not bring about the demise of the warmblood population and in fact, once that level of saturation is reached (if even possible), continued breeding can only reduce the saturation.

@beowulf

Fact: We do know that several major stallions (including a stallion that started a dynasty line of sport sons for dressage) are carriers.

I will assume this is true, I have no information to refute it. Again, so what? So all breeders flock to this dynasty and only to this dynasty, and increase the rate and saturation of the allele in the population to the point where every breeding animal is a carrier…

Please tell me where you have contributed any facts that matter to this discussion.

@beowulf

I never once said the WB population was doomed or that there was some imminent apocalypse hinging on this. You are reading into a lot that isn’t there and I get the sense you are channeling a lot of personal frustration WRT other people’s responses elsewhere to me, but I’m going to bow out of this before you assume some other aspect of our lives/horses/guacamole is hideously doomed and irrevocably beyond repair.

Whether expressly stated or not, doom is the only logical conclusion that can be reached from the concerns you have raised.

[Marydell]

Actually, we do have some emperical evidence the allele does NOT affect carriers- three of the stallions that were tested as carriers-Everdale, Don Principe and Roemer all live or lived long and healthy lives with stellar performance careers with multiple offspring with their n/n offspring outnumbering their carrier offspring.

[DownYonder]

http://www.eurodressage.com/2018/05/20/kareen-heineking-schutte-two-cents-about-warmblood-fragile-foal-syndrome.

Good article, Kareen.

“Smart breeders will test their mares and try to eliminate it from their program by keeping preferably non-carrier fillies even before mandatory testing for stallions is established. The same holds true for the stallions: Keep using carriers and chose from the best sons preferably those who are non-carriers.”

However, I don’t understand why it makes sense to advise breeders to eliminate carrier mares from breeding, yet think it is okay to continue to use carrier stallions. Mares not in breeding careers are almost always sent to riding careers, but a fair number of those mares may end up eventually being bred. And although it is probably not as much of a problem in Germany where most (all?) breeders stay fairly aware of breeding policies and practices, that is not the case in North America, where so many breeders are novice breeders, or hobby breeders producing only 1-2 foals every few years. These breeders tend to not be aware of issues of this sort - and with the condition being downplayed so much, even vets are not greatly aware of it. It would be a terrible shame for a novice breeder to have to deal with a WFFS foal, when the tragedy could have been avoided if the registries and stallion owners had enough backbone to pull all carrier stallions from breeding. A breeder who has a WFFS foal doesn’t give one whit about how successful or how sound the stallion is - but she does care that the stallion passed on a horrific genetic condition.

[Manni01]

@DownYonder

http://www.eurodressage.com/2018/05/20/kareen-heineking-schutte-two-cents-about-warmblood-fragile-foal-syndrome.

Good article, Kareen.

“Smart breeders will test their mares and try to eliminate it from their program by keeping preferably non-carrier fillies even before mandatory testing for stallions is established. The same holds true for the stallions: Keep using carriers and chose from the best sons preferably those who are non-carriers.”

However, I don’t understand why it makes sense to advise breeders to eliminate carrier mares from breeding, yet think it is okay to continue to use carrier stallions. Mares not in breeding careers are almost always sent to riding careers, but a fair number of those mares may end up eventually being bred. And although it is probably not as much of a problem in Germany where most (all?) breeders stay fairly aware of breeding policies and practices, that is not the case in North America, where so many breeders are novice breeders, or hobby breeders producing only 1-2 foals every few years. These breeders tend to not be aware of issues of this sort - and with the condition being downplayed so much, even vets are not greatly aware of it. It would be a terrible shame for a novice breeder to have to deal with a WFFS foal, when the tragedy could have been avoided if the registries and stallion owners had enough backbone to pull all carrier stallions from breeding. A breeder who has a WFFS foal doesn’t give one whit about how successful or how sound the stallion is - but she does care that the stallion passed on a horrific genetic condition.

I think it was unfortunate that she was advertising her secret list in the article. A secret list is something which will only promote her but will not help the issue itself. And also I am not sure whether I agree with your evaluation of her article. I am pretty sure that she does not recommend to remove carriers from breeding neither mares not stallions. Sure in the long run it would be smart to keep clear offspring from your best breeding stock but otherwise it doesn’t make sense to me (and I also think to Kareen) to cull the best breeding stock from breeding…

[Bent_Hickory]

@DownYonder

With the condition being downplayed so much, even vets are not greatly aware of it.

From my perspective, I don’t think the condition is being “downplayed” – maybe from your perspective it is. Folks like me are trying to quell the hysteria surrounding the condition with a big dose of practical reality. Yes, WFFS is a terrible condition, yet one that is easily (almost trivially) avoided by not breeding a carrier to a carrier. For some, however, this solution is insufficient – only eradication of the allele from the entire population and at all costs is an acceptable solution.

@DownYonder

It would be a terrible shame for a novice breeder to have to deal with a WFFS foal, when the tragedy could have been avoided if the registries and stallion owners had enough backbone to pull all carrier stallions from breeding. A breeder who has a WFFS foal doesn’t give one whit about how successful or how sound the stallion is - but she does care that the stallion passed on a horrific genetic condition.

To what length (and at what cost) must the registries go to protect novice breeders from themselves?

[Manni01]

@Bent Hickory

From my perspective, I don’t think the condition is being “downplayed” – maybe from your perspective it is. Folks like me are trying to quell the hysteria surrounding the condition with a big dose of practical reality. Yes, WFFS is a terrible condition, yet one that is easily (almost trivially) avoided by not breeding a carrier to a carrier. For some, however, this solution is insufficient – only eradication of the allele from the entire population and at all costs is an acceptable solution.

To what length (and at what cost) must the registries go to protect novice breeders from themselves?

Yes!!!

[MysticOakRanch]

@Bent Hickory

To what length (and at what cost) must the registries go to protect novice breeders from themselves?

Registries do have some responsibility - look how long it took for APHA to acknowledge and do something about HYPP. A very simple solution would be to require the horse’s status (carrier or non-carrier) on the registration for any breeding stock. Stallion can’t be approved until testing done, and results disclosed, mare can not be approved until testing done, results disclosed. Then stallion owners should have to advertise the results in their breeding contracts - easy solution, takes no one out of the breeding pool. No requirement for geldings or non-approved mares - because it is not relevant for non-breeding stock.

[Bent_Hickory]

@MysticOakRanch

Registries do have some responsibility - look how long it took for APHA to acknowledge and do something about HYPP. A very simple solution would be to require the horse’s status (carrier or non-carrier) on the registration for any breeding stock. Stallion can’t be approved until testing done, and results disclosed, mare can not be approved until testing done, results disclosed. Then stallion owners should have to advertise the results in their breeding contracts - easy solution, takes no one out of the breeding pool. No requirement for geldings or non-approved mares - because it is not relevant for non-breeding stock.

A plausible solution, yet not sufficient to many on this thread, on Facebook, etc.

[MysticOakRanch]

@Bent Hickory

A plausible solution, yet not sufficient to many on this thread, on Facebook, etc.

Maybe with education it could become acceptable… Part of it is lack of understanding - and that is not just for the “novice breeder” - I know a lot of very experienced people who know nothing of WFFS! So it needs to start with education - so people understand a carrier’s riding career (and survival) is not an issue. It is only when we breed a carrier to a carrier that we have an issue (at least that is what it appears at this point in our knowledge of this syndrome).

[back_in_the_saddle]

A secret list does nothing to help anyone.

[soloudinhere]

Blu Hors has announced they have pulled 3 of their 11 stallions from breeding this year due to being carriers of WFFS. One is Blu Hors Emilio, who I was really excited about. I am hoping they will open these stallions up for breeding to non carrier mares as I had really wanted to use him next year. His bloodlines are not particularly common (Escolar out of a Laurie’s Crusador mare) so I am watching what happens with this.

[keysfins]

Not happy that anyone gets news they don’t want, but I am glad that Blu Hors is recognizing the demand for testing.

@soloudinhere do you have just the one mare for next year? Hopefully by then we will have more breeding horses tested, and pressure on more stallion owners.

I am waiting on results back from my current mare (Hano).

I also contacted the people who have the two foals I bred, now a grown mare and a gelding, and I have offered to pay for the testing if they are willing. With only two to test, I am happy to add to the number of tested animals; I feel responsible to know what my breeding has produced.

[vineyridge]

Kareen has just announced to the WFFS Facebook Group and put on the database a Trak who has tested as a carrier. The dam is a pure 1998 TB. That means that the positive Trak either got it from a TB or from his sireline, which contains nothing but Traks, Arabs, Shagyas, and TBs. Because the Trakehner rules only allow those breeds to cross with Traks, to me that means that, unless the source is a TB or Arab who was also used by other registries 170 years ago (per Nena Winand), the allele crossed into the wider population from a Trakehner. I have my suspect firmly in sight.

[keysfins]

There was also a report in the FB group of another WFFS foal born this month, in Sweden. Now I cannot locate the Swedish article that was referred to. Need better Google-fu skills.

Viney, interested to know your thoughts if you care to PM. I have been leaning more to the TB side as the origin, for no particular reason other than the ~170 years that is cited as how far back the genetic defect goes. And honestly, just a hunch based on reading the discussions. I am not a pedigree whiz as others may be, that is certain.

Many are saying the origin is not essential to know, but I think we are naturally curious to know. I know that I am. Maybe just to have another piece to understand, especially if it has been around so long, yet affected foals were apparently not recognized as having the double dose of the gene. Development to term and foaling must have been quite rare, and/or any affected foals were seen as a complete anomaly, a one-off. No pattern to detect.

I am grateful for the discussions here and also on FB.

[SnicklefritzG]

Would it be more likely to have passed from a TB?

Regardless of when the mutation occurred, it would have taken at least several generations before two carriers were used in a given breeding. That is assuming that people would avoid breeding closely related horses, instead inbreeding/linebreeding only when there were at least 3 or 4 generations apart. For the allele to have then crossed over into other registries, the offspring with that allele would have had to have been considered for breeding. Isn’t it more common to have TB’s enter other registries as opposed to Traks? Or back then, was it more common to take a Trak and cross it with something from another registry and then register that offspring not with Trak but something else?

Then again, we don’t hear about this syndrome in racing TB’s. With the huge amount of money in that industry, it is something they would be deeply concerned with, but they don’t talk about it as far as I know.

I’m also curious how the source would be identified. I didn’t find anything in Horsetelex for looking for common ancestors, but then I have a free account rather than a subscription. Are there other sites that look for common ancestors?

@vineyridge

Kareen has just announced to the WFFS Facebook Group and put on the database a Trak who has tested as a carrier. The dam is a pure 1998 TB. That means that the positive Trak either got it from a TB or from his sireline, which contains nothing but Traks, Arabs, Shagyas, and TBs. Because the Trakehner rules only allow those breeds to cross with Traks, to me that means that, unless the source is a TB or Arab who was also used by other registries 170 years ago (per Nena Winand), the allele crossed into the wider population from a Trakehner. I have my suspect firmly in sight.

[Edre]

@SnicklefritzG I think one part of this is that it’s likely the gene only mutated in one horse originally (the odds of simultaneous gene mutation in the exact same locus on a chromosome in multiple horses is astronomically low). So if we take that thought and then apply it to the possibility that “patient zero” was a TB, you could find a TB stallion that was only ever used for sport breeding and never racing - which is honestly not very uncommon to find when you look at many of the prepotent TB sires in warmblood breeding, both modern and in antiquity. I assume that would be why, if the origin horse is a TB, that’s how it’s in warmbloods and not racing stock.

In searching for a common ancestor, I’ve only been doing some pedigree crunching. It’s tedious and I’m not very good at it but I think there are others who are better at it than I am. Just keep following horses back to see if you can find commonalities. I think it would take a lot of computing power to get a multigenerational pedigree up that goes back generations (some might be in excess of ten) and display that and flag commonalities.