The real problem I see comes back to the facilities. We have a generation of barn owners in California who are aging out too, and they are selling. Sometimes when they sell, the property goes to development, which is a higher value use for the land if local zoning allows. But even if they stay as horses, the property tax goes up enormously with the sale, and the younger new owner has to carry the mortgage payment on the new value where the old owner had the land paid off or was paying on a 30 year old loan. This is a big blow in costs (never mind the learning curve) such that even a thriving going concern often doesn’t survive a handover.
Building new facilities is really expensive. It still happens, as a labor of love, but on the whole more are torn out or abandoned to private ownership than stay or are created as boarding stables.
So then the next problem is that with these high costs, fewer have any kind of lesson string. This is especially true in dressage. Where are new riders supposed to learn the sport and get enough skill to buy a horse if we don’t have lesson horses? Many training barns have one or two horses that can be leased or otherwise kind of used for lessons, but a good lesson string has a collection of wonderfully unsuitable horses that are perfect for learning the first canter, for learning to sit the trot, to ride a sensitive horse, for learning tact, horses that are very safe and used to riders bumbling through this or that. The variety of possible mounts is essential too. You can’t put a lesson string in stalls that rent dry for $500 a month.
And this is all before we even talk about how we all crave and honestly need better facilities than we used to make do with - better footing especially. The covered arena. Which costs money.
So now if you can find a barn, and even if you know you want to ride so much that you’re willing to put out the money, barns are just farther away from people, and there are only so many hours in the day. Most women work and also have children, and so to ride for themselves requires finding time that is very dear. For families with one horse-crazy child, it is harder and harder to justify the time and money unless you happen to live near a good riding school.