Kentucky Derby 2006 - odds, etc

It is that time again with the future betting on the Kentucky Derby - I have to admit a lot of the names with low odds never were on my radar with juvenile stakes wins. Others have put in great runs this summer/fall and yet are getting little respect.

Case in point - Master of Disaster who won with impressive ease but took 3rd to Henny Hughes at Saratoga is currently 60-1

Caesars/Bally’s Vegas odds as of 12-06-05

  1. (tied) Private Vow 12-1 (won G2 Kentucky Jockey Club)
    (tied) Stevie Wonderboy 12-1 (won BC Juvenile)

  2. Bluegrass Cat 15 -1 (Todd Pletcher trained; won the G2 Remsen Stakes)

  3. (tied) First Samurai 20-1
    (tied) A.P. Warrior 20-1 (in the G1 Hollywood Futurity Dec 17th)

  4. Flanders Fields 25/1 (by AP Indy)

  5. (tied) Henny Hughes 30/1 (owned by Godolphin; won G2 Saratoga Special, bought for $4.3 million in July 2005)
    (tied) Dr. Pleasure 30/1 (by Thunder Gulch)
    (tied) Sir Percy 30/1
    (tied) Stream Cat 30/1 (won G3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile)
    (tied) Sunriver 30/1

Highest filly: Adieu at 60/1

Interestingly there is a horse, George Washington - I wonder, how did that get by the Jockey Club when the purported name of the slave mistress of President Thomas Jefferson was nixed?

Other names of note that I recall from 2005:
Catcominatcha 60/1
Dawn of War 100/1
High Cotton 35/1
Laity 100/1
Menacing 100/1
Sharp Attack 100/1
Too Much Bling 150/1

“I may pull his shoes off and train him barefoot for a couple of weeks,” he said.

is he serious?> I couldn’t pull my TBs shoes and expect him to work right away. at least I don’t think so. It wouldn’t occur to me to try.

Err … nix that report of Henny Hughes racing this week.

Brisnet 1/18/06 - “Henny Hughes will skip Dubai Carnival opener”

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up HENNY HUGHES (Hennessy) will not make his sophomore debut in Thursday’s Shadwell Farm Trophy S. at Nad al Sheba. The Darley-owned colt was among the preliminary entries to the about seven-furlong dirt event on the opening day of the Dubai Carnival, but he was pulled from Tuesday’s final declarations.

and …

DRF Santa Anita notes 1/18/06

Round two will be in Santa Catalina

Brother Derek and Stevie Wonderboy are likely to have at least one rematch in coming months.

Their trainers said earlier this week that the colts will be pointed for the $200,000 Santa Catalina Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on March 4, a key prep for the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 8.

In the San Rafael Stakes over a mile, Brother Derek led throughout, winning by 1 1/2 lengths over Stevie Wonderboy. The San Rafael was Stevie Wonderboy’s first start since he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Belmont Park in October and his first start around two turns. Owned by Merv Griffin, Stevie Wonderboy is expected to be named the champion 2-year-old male of 2005 when Eclipse Awards are announced on Monday.

The ease with which Brother Derek won surprised trainer Dan Hendricks.

“I thought he’d be tested a little more than that,” he said.

Before the race, Hendricks hinted that Brother Derek had been overlooked among the nation’s top 3-year-old prospects. The colt was not among the three finalists for that division’s Eclipse Award, a list that included First Samurai and Henny Hughes.

After the San Rafael, Hendricks downplayed the issue.

“I can’t take anything away from the other three,” he said. "The other two won prestigious races in New York. I was wondering why we haven’t gotten more respect, but they had the right three horses.

“You can’t take anything away from Stevie,” he said. “Everyone wondered how Stevie would fare in his first race back, and it made them take a good look at my horse and realize what a solid horse he is. We knocked off number one. Where do you go from here?”

Hendricks said that Brother Derek will have a 10-day break, until early next week, before he returns to racetrack training. “I may pull his shoes off and train him barefoot for a couple of weeks,” he said.

The San Rafael was Brother Derek’s third graded stakes win around two turns in California. Owned by Cecil Peacock, Brother Derek won the Grade 2 Norfolk Stakes in October and the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity in December. In his only loss since the summer, Brother Derek was fourth behind Stevie Wonderboy in the BC Juvenile. “That was a one-turn race and a totally different race. I knew he’d be able to do this,” Hendricks said.

The absence of another speed horse in the field of four gave Brother Derek an uncontested lead and doomed Stevie Wonderboy’s chances of winning, trainer Doug O’Neill said.

“Speed kills,” O’Neill said. “He was tired after the race, which we didn’t see after his other races. He definitely got something out of that. We’re on for the Santa Catalina, but one thing Merv brought up is that if I see something appealing out of town to think of that as well.”

O’Neill later said that was unlikely. “I’m sure we won’t” travel, he said.

From the Dallas Fort-Worth Star Telegram 1/20/06 - Gary West’s Top 10

Star-Telegram staff writer Gary West’s top 10 candidates for the 2006 Triple Crown as of 1/20/06

  1. Bluegrass Cat: Recently worked 5 furlongs preparing for his return next month.

  2. Private Vow: In Florida aiming to return to competition in early March.

  3. Your Tent Or Mine: Given a break after finishing second in the Hollywood Futurity.

  4. Stevie Wonderboy: His runner-up finish in the San Rafael didn’t diminish his standing.

  5. First Samurai: Worked 6 furlongs last weekend preparing for the Hutcheson Stakes on Feb. 4.

  6. Barbaro: Unbeaten on turf and will make his dirt debut Feb. 4 in the Holy Bull Stakes.

  7. Brother Derek: Enjoyed a perfect trip while defeating Stevie Wonderboy in the San Rafael.

  8. Lawyer Ron: Dominant in the Risen Star, aimed at Oaklawn’s Southwest Stakes on Feb. 20.

  9. Achilles of Troy: Will stay in New York for now, aiming at the Whirlaway Stakes on Feb. 11.

  10. Bob And John: Can justify his connections’ high opinion of him in today’s sixth at Santa Anita.

“Bob and John” racing at Santa Anita in the allowance race will face Twising Road and it might not be a slam dunk win. Twisting Road, a $300,000 yearling by Giant’s Causeway, won for the first time with the addition of blinkers in his most recent outing. His trainer, Eoin Harty, a former Baffert assistant, said the long-striding colt has enormous potential. PVal will be in the irons with Twisting Road

Steve Haskin (Blood-Horse) has his new update on the Derby Trail and reiterates some of the above action, like Doctor Decherd, Achilles of Troy, and Too Much Bling.

I liked his remark - as I feel the same way - with the naming convention for Itsallaboutthechase:

As for Itsallboutthechase, his potential and his pedigree make up for his name (sorry, I just dislike those one-word, 18-letter names that roll off the tongue as smoothly as bulldozer over broken glass. It’s bad enough giving a horse a sentence for a name, regardless of its derivation, it’s even worse when the sentence is so long you can’t even fit it into the name and have to start chopping letters off.)

Other horses he cites in the 1/10/06 BloodHorse article:

One horse to keep an eye on is Keyed Entry, who wired an allowance field on the Aventura card to win by 5 1/2 lengths in 1:09 2/5. The son of Honour and Glory is now two-for-two for Pletcher, but he still has to show what he can do going two turns.

  • snip -

Pletcher also saddled the impressive maiden winner Exclusive Quality on the same card. The son of Elusive Quality, who cost $850,000 as a yearling, came between, then around, horses from fifth to win by two lengths in 1:10 3/5. He is another who is by a brilliant stallion, but has good stamina in his tail-female family. He showed excellent acceleration on the far turn and again in the stretch. The main lesson to be learned from his race is that he dislikes the whip, throwing his tail up every time he was hit.

  • snip -

In other races this weekend, Final Copy made it three in a row winning the Turfway Prevue Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths. The son of Souvenir Copy still has not been over seven furlongs in seven career starts, but he has a strong pedigree, with an excellent combination of speed and stamina, the latter of which he gets from his maternal great-grandsire Alleged.

A very nice effort - in particular the game, dig in with the stretch duel, “eye to eye” - by Doctor Decherd to win the $125,000 Aventura S. at Gulfstream Park

In the duel, Itsallboutthechase took 2nd while My Golden Song took 3rd. In Summation the favorite took 5th while Catcominatcha came in a poor 7th.

A bit of commentary by Mike “I Hate Lost In The Fog” Watchmaker at the Daily Racing Forum:

DRF - Mike Watchmaker - 1/16/06: “After San Rafael, Derby plot thickens”

For those who believe Stevie Wonderboy has the stuff to become the first Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to win the Derby, and the first champion 2-year-old to win the Derby since Spectacular Bid - he is a mortal lock to receive that honor at the Eclipse Award dinner on Monday night in Beverly Hills - there are ample reasons to take Stevie Wonderboy’s defeat Saturday with a grain of salt. For one, the San Rafael was Stevie Wonderboy’s first start in nearly three months. He had only four published breezing workouts since he won the Juvenile, and this being only January, he was certainly not going to be sharpened to a razor’s edge for this go-around.

Mentioning The Bid in the same breath (and mind you I know he wasn’t trying to compare) as Stevie is always a bit dangerous IMHO

Spectacular Bid’s record at the end of his 2-yr old year was 9 starts 7-1-0; of which it included two G1 wins (one was a track record), a G2 victory and a G3 victory. Plus his 2nd race start equaled the track record.

Stevie Wonderboy’s record now is: 6 start 3-2-1 with one G1 win, one G2 win, a placing in a G2, and a show in G3.

It will be an interesting run up to Kentucky to be sure!

Originally posted by Glimmerglass:
An impressive, but very narrow win (1/2 length at most) today by Lawyer Ron in the $250,000 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn over a good field - including an equally impressive challenge by Steppenwolfer. I expected more from Music School but he took a more distant 4th.

I’m sure the late James T. Hines, Jr. was looking down with a smile on his Lawyer’s win.

I’m skeptical. Even if LR led the whole way, 1:40 for a mile is a slow pace. And Steppenwolfer going from 9th off the start to 5th at the top of the stretch to 2nd by a hip at the wire leaves me .

I’ll bet they got someone named George Washington to sign a release of the name. Thanks for the odds.

for what it’s worth, my partner picked Giacomo cause he was grey and Closing Argument cause she’s a lawyer. . .

Too Much Bling just blew the San Miguel field away at Santa Anita. He’s probably only a sprinter, though.

A colt named Really Indian broke his maiden at SA on Wed. he’s trained by Neil Drysdale and sired by A P Indy. He could be a nice one, he’s a huge striding chestnut.
He may make my list down the road.

One more time GO PRIVATE VOW
Watch for him at Oaklawn in the Rebel…

A brave, if not slightly foolish, statement to make January 12th …

Bisnet/The Handicapper’s Edge (John Mucciolo) 1/12/06 - “Why Private Vow will win the Kentucky Derby”

His race at Belmont (9/17/05) with the G2-Futurity and the riderless horse staying with him to the wire was fun to watch

I myself am still a big Henny Hughes fan and until we see evidence of Dubai having taken the best out of him, I suspect he’ll be a significant threat.

Hm. Rather like Bluegrass Cat. Particulary at those odds. Must get my pal in Vegas to drop some money for me on one of the race books.

Henny Hughes has been absorbed into the enormous maw of the Godolphin oeration with plans to stay in their pre-Derby program in Dubai. he’s also bred to sprint. IMO, his breeding says “grass mile” to me. I’d prep him for the 2000 Guineas.

Barbaro looks like a nice one but have never raced on dirt.

I happened to see the Flash Stakes on tv this summer. It was a three horse photo. THe times were slow but all three looked like racehorses to me!
they were
Beacon Shine (75-1)
Speed of Sound (150-1) and
Union Course (100-1).

we shall see!

The latest Top 10 poll from the Courier-Journal in Louisville, KY after this weekend’s action:

Courier-Journal - 02-05-06 - “Original Derby Poll”
As of Feb 5, 2006

This Week’s Rank - Horse - Last Week’s Rank

  1. Stevie Wonderboy 1
  2. Barbaro 9
  3. Private Vow 4
  4. Bluegrass Cat 2
  5. Brother Derek 5
  6. Your Tent Or Mine 6
  7. Bob and John [not top 10]
  8. First Samurai 3
  9. Lawyer Ron 7
  10. Keyed Entry [not top 10]

Others (in order of votes received): Latent Heat, Barbican, Cause to Believe, Achilles of Troy, Music School, Great Point, Well Armed, Corinthian, Point Determined, Henny Hughes, Hesanoldsalt, Sorceror’s Stone, One Union, Dr. Pleasure, My Golden Song, A.P. Warrior, On Board Again, Steppenwolfer, High Cotton, Super Fly, Sweetnorthernsaint, Flanders Fields, Itsallaboutthechase, Flashy Bull, Jolted & Jostled, Blazing Rate, Da Stoops, Sunriver, Tatsuji, Doctor Decherd, Half Ours.

Originally posted by lizathenag:
<BLOCKQUOTE class=“ip-ubbcode-quote”><div class=“ip-ubbcode-quote-title”>quote:</div><div class=“ip-ubbcode-quote-content”>“I may pull his shoes off and train him barefoot for a couple of weeks,” he said.

is he serious?> I couldn’t pull my TBs shoes and expect him to work right away. at least I don’t think so. It wouldn’t occur to me to try. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Liza, I stand corrected

From the Associated Press 2/9/06 - “Derby prospects in action this weekend”

Notes: San Rafael winner Brother Derek galloped 1½ miles without shoes for trainer Dan Hendricks. “He trains without shoes and he’s worn glue-on shoes since Del Mar to allow his feet to air out and expand naturally,” the trainer said. The colt’s next start will be in the Santa Catalina on March 4.

Also from CBS Cportsline 2/7/06 - “Brother Derek the target now”

Since last summer, it has been standard practice for Brother Derek to train without shoes.

For those folks in the know - how typical is this practice?

<Of the last five Derby heroes, their names are between seven and 11 letters, Private Vow is 10>

probably as good a way to pick 'em as any :wink: