Kentucky Derby 2006 - odds, etc

[Glimmerglass]

Could this be … yes! An early top 25 list Blood-Horse (Steve Haskin) 1-3-05 - "Kentucky Derby Trail: On Your Mark, Get Set… "

Excerpted without the comments:

1 ”" Stevie Wonderboy
2 ”" Private Vow
3 ”" First Samurai
4 ”" Your Tent or Mine
5 ”" Brother Derek
6 ”" Bluegrass Cat
7 ”" Barbaro
8 ”" High Cotton
9 ”" Henny Hughes
10 ”" Bob and John
11 ”" A.P. Warrior
12 ”" Saint Daimon
13 ”" Stream Cat
14 ”" Superfly
15 ”" Flashy Bull
16 ”" Dawn of War
17 ”" Saint Augustus
18 ”" Dr. Pleasure
19 ”" Half Ours
20 ”" Little Cliff
21 ”" Catcominatcha
22 ”" Fabled
23 ”" Wanna Runner
24 ”" Bashert
25 ”" My Golden Song

Several others are cited outside of the list.

Things are getting interesting

[Glimmerglass]

Henny Hughes returns to action!

Brisnet 1/16/06 - “Henny Hughes headlines early entries for Thursday’s Dubai Carnival opener”

Contrary to previous reports, the impressive Saratoga Special S. (G2) and Tremont S. hero has not joined the Godolphin banner but rather is still running in the name of Sheikh Rashid bin Mohammed Al Maktoum. Moreover, his trainer is the accomplished South African Alec Laird, who has taken over headship of Millennium Stables in Dubai, formerly run by the now suspended Mazin Al Kurdi.

An aside …

The Churchill Downs run Kentucky Derby Futures (#1) opens on Jan 26th and closes on Jan 29th is an interesting way to get in on the action. Even a Smarty Jones bet in the 3rd poll (which opens and ends in early April) yielded on a $2 win bet a fat $23.60 return.

[Glimmerglass]

Looks like Michael Matz now has all of the bullseye’s on his swift turf/dirt star

The latest Louisville Courier-Journal Derby Poll:

Derby Poll as of 02-12-06
Rank - Horse - Rank Last Week

1. Barbaro 2
2. Private Vow 3
3. Brother Derek 5
4. Bluegrass Cat 4
5. First Samurai 8
6. Bob and John 7
7. Lawyer Ron 9
8. Your Tent Or Mine 6
9. Achilles of Troy [N/R]
10. Keyed Entry 10

Others (in order of votes received): Latent Heat, Cause to Believe, Barbican, Music School, Great Point, Corinthian, Hesanoldsalt, Point Determined, High Cotton, My Golden Song, Henny Hughes, Steppenwolfer, Dr. Pleasure, A.P. Warrior, Flashy Bull, Sweetnorthernsaint, Jazil, On Board Again, Scanlon’s Song, Flanders Fields, Blazing Rate, Tatsuji, Jostled and Jolted, Itsallaboutthechase, Go Bucky Go, Da Stoops, Superfly, Dr. Decherd, Half Ours, Strong Contender, Laptop Computer, Noonmark, Wanna Runner, Well Armed.

An interesting aside on First Samurai. Folks have wondered why Jerry Bailey ended his career before one-final chance to win the Derby (again) especially when he had the seat on First Samurai.

His reply from the BloodHorse on-line chat last week: quote “First Samurai’s first race of the year was a good one; however, I am not convinced that he will relish the distances as they get over a mile and an eighth.”

[Glimmerglass]

Could trainer Michael Matz have a Derby contender under his control? Maybe. While Barbaro is a turf horse thus far he could switch over …

Blood-Horse 1/1/06 “Barbaro Stays Hot in Tropical Park Derby”

excerpt:

“He’s obviously a very talented horse,” Matz said. “Whether he carries the class he shows on turf over to the dirt, we just don’t know yet, but his mother and half-brother (Holy Ground) ran well on the dirt. So, we’ll talk it over with the Jacksons to see whether we try him on dirt next.”

With $60,000 in graded stakes earnings he already is much more near the typical $110,000 minimum cut-off

Barbaro was not listed in the Bally’s/Caesars betting pool by name and would instead be part of the “Field (all others)” at a less juicy 7/2

[Glimmerglass]

Hopefully I’m not hammering away too much on this topic of the 3-yr old racing season

Associated Press 1/3/06 - “Stevie Wonderboy Set for 3-Year-Old Debut”

Excerpt:

… is set to open his 3-year-old campaign in the San Rafael Stakes [Grade-2] on Jan. 14

• snip -

[I]The colt, named for singer-songwriter Stevie Wonder, became the early favorite for the May 6 Derby with his win in the Juvenile and all but wrapped up the Eclipse Award as 2-year-old male champion.

[Merv] Griffin, a 15-time Emmy Award winner, won’t be at Santa Anita for the race.

“He’s on a yacht in the Virgin Islands,” O’Neill said. [/I]

[Glimmerglass]

Originally posted by Glimmerglass:

The Courier-Journal’s Original Derby Poll for Feb 26th

Ranking Horse (Last week rank)

1. Private Vow (3)
2. Barbaro (1)
3. Brother Derek (4)
4. Bluegrass Cat (2)
5. First Samurai (6)
6. Lawyer Ron (5)
7. Bob and John (6)
8. Achilles of Troy (9)
   <STRIKE><span class=“ev_code_RED”>9. Your Tent Or Mine (N/R)</span></STRIKE>
9. Keyed Entry

Blood-Horse 3/8/06 - “Your Tent Or Mine off Triple Crown trail”

excerpt: [I]"The son of Forest Camp, who has not raced since finishing second in the Hollywood Futurity (G1) on December 17, has been slowed by an abscess on his right front foot.

“It hasn’t healed as fast we would have liked, so we’ll probably give him a couple weeks rest,” Drysdale said. “In other words, we’re taking him off the Triple Crown trail.” "[/I]

[Glimmerglass]

One follow-up: Your Tent Or Mine listed at 35/1

Los Angeles Daily News 12/16/05 - “Your Tent or Mine is one to watch in Futurity”

excerpt:

[I]On Nov. 19, a Drysdale-trained 2-year-old named Your Tent or Mine went into the Hollywood Prevue Stakes as the 6-1 long shot in a five-horse field and came out of the starting gate dead last.

But Your Tent or Mine and jockey Patrick Valenzuela caught front-running Da Stoops in mid-stretch and pulled away to win by 2 lengths.

In the process, Your Tent or Mine burned up the main track, clocking 1:21.12 in the fastest 7 furlongs of the meet by a horse of any age.

That performance makes Your Tent or Mine a contender to win Saturday’s Hollywood Futurity, the $401,250 race that highlights the closing weekend of the six-week season.

If the cleverly named colt - he’s by Forest Camp, out of Shes Got the Look - wins the Futurity, Drysdale will leave Hollywood Park with a prospect for the 2006 Kentucky Derby.[/I]

[Drumbiggle]

George Washington is a Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien horse, so he would have been registered with Weatherbys and not the JC.

[Glimmerglass]

Brother Derek will mark his 2nd start in 2006 with Saturday’s Santa Catalina Challenge (G2) at Santa Anita. He looks exceptionally good right now, especially with a wicked 6-furlong workout last week at 1:12 1/5

I did enjoy his trainer’s remarks with perspective - but just don’t let BD hear them :

“I’d like a walkover, that would be fine with me,” Hendricks said. “No matter who goes in there with me I’d like an easy race. We don’t need a taxing race. We’re not Secretariat or anything; we just hope to get through it clean without a taxing race.”

First Samurai goes to Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream which will be his first 2-turn and 1 1/8th effort. With 9 other challengers (although none of whom has won a stakes race on dirt) I see this as being a good chance for an upset. Samurai will likely go in as the favorite but as Jerry Bailey said (in so many words) this horse might be tough to stretch out. Flashy Bull and Itsallaboutthechase will be in the field.

[Linny]

Well Armed looked very good winning a conditions race (like an allowance) in Dubai yesterday. He’s a handsome son of Tiznow who spend most of his career on grass in Europe. His prior start was a corking win on the all weather track at Lingfield (England) at (get this) 1 1/4 miles. He’s trained by Clive Brittain who sent Bold Arrangement to the US to finish on the board in the Derby a few years back.
A friend of mine has hands on experience with Well Armed and is VERY high on him. The UAE Guineas is next.

How ironic it would be if a colt came from Dubai to win the Derby and it wasn’t a Godolphin horse. Several British bookmakers have him at about 80-1 to win the Kentucky Derby.

Also, as for the mention of Spectacular Bid, it’s inevitable. He was the last 2yo champ to win the Derby. The mention is not nessesarily a comparison. Believe me, I knew Spectacular Bid. Spectacular Bid was my friend. Stevie Wonderboy is no Spectacular Bid.

[Glimmerglass]

Some other lists - with interesting new entries:

Albany NY OTB - Jeanne Wood - 1/25/06

1 Stevie Wonderboy
2 First Samurai
3 Brother Derek
4 Barbican
5 Lawyer Ron
6 Rehoboth
7 Doctor Decherd
8 Music School
9 Barbaro
10 Hesanoldsalt

HRTV’s Jon White as of 1/26/06

(1) Brother Derek
(2) Stevie Wonderboy
(3) First Samurai
(4) Bluegrass Cat
(5) Lawyer Ron
(6) Achilles of Troy
(7) Barbaro
(8) Private Vow
(9) Latent Heat
(10) Tatsuji

[Glimmerglass]

The Courier-Journal’s Derby Panel picks as of 1/30/06

Note with Rick Cushing:

1. Well Armed 2. Private Vow 3. Stevie Wonderboy 4. Barbican 5. Dr. Pleasure 6. My Golden Song 7. Sunriver 8. Your Tent or Mine 9. Hesanoldsalt 10. Bob and John

And John Asher, Churchill Downs:

John Asher, Churchill Downs 1. First Samurai 2. Stevie Wonderboy 3. Private Vow 4. Lawyer Ron 5. Bluegrass Cat 6. Brother Derek 7. Barbaro 8. A.P. Warrior 9. Hesanoldsalt 10. Latent Heat

And Steve Haskins, Blood-Horse:

Steve Haskin, Blood-Horse 1. Stevie Wonderboy 2. Private Vow 3. Brother Derek 4. First Samurai 5. Your Tent or Mine 6. Bob and John 7. Bluegrass Cat 8. Hesanoldsalt 9. Sunriver 10. My Golden Song

Boston Globe 1/28/06 - picks by Mark Blaudschun

#5 Hesanoldsalt - Nick Zito-trained colt showed he has the taste for distance, winning at 1 1/8 miles in an allowance race earlier this month at Gulfstream.

[Glimmerglass]

Some great action today (Sat) with Derby-aimed horses, including among others:

First Samurai in the $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (G2) against a decent field including Catcominatcha who I will take for the upset Samurai will have a new jock (Prado) now that Jerry is retired. They will go off as the 6-5 favorites but Catominatcha at 12-1 also has a graded stakes (a G3 in November) win to his name.

As well as the much cited Barbaro in the $150,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and his first start on dirt. This looks to be the toughest race based upon the quality of the field as he’s joined by Itsaboutthechase, Flashy Bull and Doctor Decherd all have been top 20 mentions.

On the West Coast Bob and John will be in the 1 1/8-mile Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita.

[Glimmerglass]

TV Alert

Saturday’s 1-mile $150,000 Grade-2 San Rafael @ Santa Anita will be televised on ESPN News at approximately 3:16 p.m. Pacific time (so 6:16 pm Eastern).

This will be largely a match up of two top 5 Derby prospects - Brother Derek and Stevie Wonderboy. The field of six also includes the bullet Wanna Runner who starts a stakes race for the first time and comes into the race winning his first two starts.

The entire field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. ODDS

1 Woody Be Quick
2 Brother Derek
3 M. J. Pkay
4 Wanna Runner
5 Stevie Wonderboy
6 Sailors Sunset

I can easily see Brother Derek winning this race as I am not a “wow” fan of Stevie. I still think his 1 1/2 length victory over Henny Hughes in the BC Juvenile was simply because HH’s jock engaged in a foolish speed duel early and he came up slightly empty in the end.

[WhiteCamry]

Originally posted by Glimmerglass:

Interestingly there is a horse, George Washington - I wonder, how did that get by the Jockey Club when the purported name of the slave mistress of President Thomas Jefferson was nixed?

FWIW, he’s Irish-bred.

[Glimmerglass]

Getting some Derby buzz, despite only two starts and one being way back in August at Arlington Park (IL) is Strong Contender, who just knocked off High Cotton a horse cited as being a Derby candidate and 9 others!

Blood-Horse 2/22/06 - “Strong Contender Rumbles in Gulf Allowance”

Courier-Journal 2/23/06 - “Strong Contender romps in Florida”

Sun Sentinal 2/23/06 - “Strong Contender impressive winner in 3-year-old debut”

“From the folks who brought you 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos, here comes Strong Contender …”

[Glimmerglass]

liza - didn’t going barefoot work for one of the Olympic runners? I think a comment like that regarding Brother Derek is just part of the trainer’s pagebook of playing head games with competitors in the press.

Next up is Bob and John a very promising top 10 Derby-hopeful horse trained by Bob Baffert. He races this Friday in an allowance race (1 1/16 mi) at Santa Anita against a smaller field of horses who are, if their last Beyer figs are an indication, likely to be outclassed by Bob and John.

[Glimmerglass]

Originally posted by Linny:
Several British bookmakers have him at about 80-1 to win the Kentucky Derby.

Looks like those long odds have dried up from the bookmakers.

“We’ll win the UAE Guineas, the UAE Derby and the Kentucky Derby,” said [Trainer Clive Brittain]. "I’ve never been a man to mince my words.

The Sporting Life (UK) cited that Coral was offering 80-1 that Brittain’s prophecy is fulfilled in the ‘Run for the Roses’ in this article last night.

Accordingly Coral Eurobet quoted odds dropped to 33/1 today on Well Armed

[Glimmerglass]

The accidental death of James T Hines, Jr (on Feb 21st) - owner of Lawyer Ron - is not expected to derail the horse’s progression towards the Kentucky Derby. Attorney Ron Bamberger (the man for whom the horse is named) will be overseeing the estate.

[Glimmerglass]

worth pointing out - ESPN’s horse page has a video link (see right side, mid page, just below the Youbet.com ad)

Of the video offerings if you click on “more videos” include the impressive win by Your Tent or Mine also Bluegrass Cat’s Remsen Stakes win.

Not to mention several races are with Vic Stauffer making the race call - one of the best callers out there. He can really make a final charge that much more exciting!