Kentucky Derby 2006 - odds, etc

[Glimmerglass]

Louisville Courier-Journal -Derby Poll for 2/19/06:

Courier-Journal 2/19/06 - "The original Derby poll "

This week rank HORSE (last week rank)

1. Barbaro (1)
2. Bluegrass Cat (4)
3. Private Vow (2)
4. Brother Derek (3)
5. Lawyer Ron (7)
6. First Samurai (5)
7. Bob and John (6)
8. Keyed Entry (10)
9. Achilles of Troy (9)
10. Cause to Believe [NR]

Others (in order of votes received): Your Tent or Mine, Great Point, Latent Heat, Point Determined, Music School, Corinthian, Barbican, Steppenwolfer, High Cotton, My Golden Song, Flashy Bull, Superfly, Too Much Bling, Henny Hughes, Dr. Pleasure, Hesanoldsalt, Jazil, Sweetnorthernsaint, Private School, On Board Again, Well Armed, Scanlon’s Song, Flanders Fields, Half Ours, Really Indian, Blazing Rate, Go Bucky Go, Folklore, Wanna Runner, Deputy Glitters, Strong Contender, Itsallboutthechase, Well Said, Noonmark.

[Glimmerglass]

How many times I have seen this same type of article, ponding if the “Breeders’ Cup Jinx” will be broken this year …

Yep, Stevie Wonderboy will have this buzz, and sadly high expectation on him, until another massive effort by another horse (a la Bellamy Road) puts in a breath taking effort in a 2006 prep race.

MSNBS/NBC Sports 12/21/05 “Stevie Wonderboy will try to be first to win both Breeders’ Cup, Derby”

snip:

Stevie Wonderboy will need to continue his forward progression to end the 0-for-21 skid, but the probable 2-year-old Eclipse Winner has a large following. He is expected to make his first start in the San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita on January 14, which will be one of the most highly anticipated returns of any horse. The game is his to lose.

[Glimmerglass]

On Brother Derek’s win Saturday

“Don’t kid yourself, all we think about is winning the Derby,” said trainer Dan Hendricks. “If you ask 1,000 people on the street about horse racing, they’re going to say Kentucky Derby and Bill Shoemaker.”

[snip]

Brother Derek was purchased in March for $275,000 and named after a Mormon missionary.

…

Was was last year’s Hollywood Park Futurity winner? Giacomo

[Glimmerglass]

An impressive, but very narrow win (1/2 length at most) today by Lawyer Ron in the $250,000 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn over a good field - including an equally impressive challenge by Steppenwolfer. I expected more from Music School but he took a more distant 4th.

I’m sure the late James T. Hines, Jr. was looking down with a smile on his Lawyer’s win.

[Plaza_Suite]

Thanks! He may not make it, but just the thought is pretty cool.

[Glimmerglass]

Plaza Suite, that is pretty neat! I watched the replay and Doctor Dechard, who had been a promising Derby horse, has put in a few poor efforts as of late.

The Courier-Journal’s Original Derby Poll for Feb 26th

Ranking Horse (Last week rank)

1. Private Vow (3)
2. Barbaro (1)
3. Brother Derek (4)
4. Bluegrass Cat (2)
5. First Samurai (6)
6. Lawyer Ron (5)
7. Bob and John (6)
8. Achilles of Troy (9)
9. Your Tent Or Mine (N/R)
10. Keyed Entry (8)

Others (in order of votes received): Steppenwolfer, Cause To Believe, Latent Heat, Great Point, Corinthian, Point Determined, Barbican, Strong Contender, My Golden Song, Flashy Bull, Henny Hughes, Dr. Pleasure, A.P.Warrior, Sweetnorthernsaint, Hesanoldsalt, Jazil, On Board Again, Scanlon’s Song, Itsallaboutthechase, High Cotton, Well Armed, Flanders Fields, Da Stoops, Blazing Rate, Superfly, Music School, Really Indian, Point of Impact, Go Bucky Go, Wanna Runner, Too Much Bling.

I must say that Courier-Journal’s high opinion with Private Vow seems to me more than just a bit hopefull. While he put in a damn good drill time in training last week the horse hasn’t even raced as a 3-yr old yet.

[Glimmerglass]

The Saratogian 1/4/06 - “It’s not too early to look toward the Derby” … here are Michael Veitch (you, know his brother knows a thing or two about the Triple Crown chase) and his top 10 as of now:

side note - contender comments removed
They are ranked in order of the writer’s preference.

1. BLUEGRASS CAT
2. STEVIE WONDERBOY
3. FIRST SAMURAI
4. PRIVATE VOW
5. HENNY HUGHES
6. BROTHER DEREK “Very capable grandson of Alydar”
7. SORCERER’S STONE
8. A. P. WARRIOR
9. YOUR TENT OR MINE
10. BOB AND JOHN

Aside: Godolphin co-owner, Sheikh Maktoum bin Rashed al-Maktoum (see contender ‘Henny Hughes’ above) died in Australia today.

[Glimmerglass]

Originally posted by Glimmerglass:
First Samurai in the $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (G2) against a decent field including Catcominatcha who I will take for the upset

Well I knew there would be an upset (sorry not a fan of Samurai - overrated IMHO) but just called the wrong slayer

Barbaro looked excellent as did Bob and John in their respective wins!

[Glimmerglass]

Another mention of MM’s contender - Barbaro - ESPN/Finley 1/31/06 - “IS Barbaro a horse for the course?”

He won’t have to wait long for his answer. One of the most intriguing Kentucky Derby contenders to come around in a long time, Barbaro will make his dirt debut Saturday in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. He could dominate his competition. He could run abysmally. No one really knows.

“He works well on the dirt,” Matz said. “I hope he’ll run that way.”

• snip -

“They call it aging,” he said. “I didn’t want to get stuck standing in the middle of a show ring teaching lessons the rest of my life.”

We are all glad he stayed with horses and moved to racing

Previously on Barbaro …

Originally posted by Glimmerglass:
Could trainer Michael Matz have a Derby contender under his control? Maybe. While Barbaro is a turf horse thus far he could switch over …

Blood-Horse 1/1/06 “Barbaro Stays Hot in Tropical Park Derby”

[Linny]

Here he is. Well Armed

A friend of mine has hands on experience with this colt and likes him alot. In fact, he called the US from Dubai (on a cell phone) to place a bet on Well Armed.

[Glimmerglass]

The Associated Press has released their Top 10 List as of today (1/21/06) …

AP Top 10 picks for the Derby
The top-10 picks include:

First Samurai (Frank Brothers, trainer; no rider): Season debut set for Hutcheson at Gulfstream on Feb. 4, went 4-for-4 before finishing third in BC Juvenile.

Stevie Wonderboy (Doug O’Neill, Garrett Gomez): BC Juvenile winner’s star still shines despite San Rafael loss in 3-year-old debut, set to win Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male with three wins in five starts. Owned by hotel and TV magnate Merv Griffin.

Brother Derek (Dan Hendricks, Alex Solis): San Rafael win over Stevie Wonderboy boosts stock in big way. Won three of five last year, including Norfolk and Hollywood Futurity.

Bluegrass Cat (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez): Won Remsen at Aqueduct on Nov. 26, colt’s third straight win, one of many Pletcher Derby hopefuls.

Bob and John (Bob Baffert, Victor Espinoza); Bay colt owned by Houston Texans honcho Bob McNair; third in Hollywood Futurity, his 3-year-old debut was Friday at Santa Anita.

Private Vow (Steve Asmussen, Shaun Bridgmohan): Won Kentucky Jockey Club on Nov. 26 for fourth win in last five starts, lost rein early in BC Juvenile and finished 14th ”" a throwout race.

Superfly (Nick Zito, Eibar Coa): Ran fifth in the BC Juvenile, finished on the board in first four starts, including win in Whirling Ash at Delaware Park on Sept. 17.

Lawyer Ron (Bob Holthus, John McKee): Won third straight with 8¼-length win in Risen Star at Louisiana Downs. Was 1-for-8 before winning steak. Next race could be Southwest at Oaklawn on Feb. 20.

Saint Augustus (Pletcher, Robby Albarado): Fifth in Risen Star on Jan. 14 after winning What a Pleasure Stakes at Calder.

Achilles of Troy (Jennifer Pedersen, Alan Garcia): Won Count Fleet by 14 lengths at Aqueduct on Jan. 7, worked five furlongs in 1:01.45 at Big A on Thursday. Next race likely to be Whirlaway on Feb. 11.

Keep an eye on: A.P. Warrior, Fabled, Itsallaboutthechase, Menacing, Wanna Runner.

What about Henny Hughes or Barbaro?

[Glimmerglass]

In today’s (1/13) Blood-Horse article by Steve Haskin’s he thinks that tomorrow’s race will be all Stevie:

So, let’s look for Stevie Wonderboy to win by a length or two in solid, but not spectacular, time over Brother Derek. If the track should come up wet, then it’s anyone’s guess what’s going to happen.

We shall see as I think otherwise

Originally posted by Glimmerglass:
I can easily see Brother Derek winning this race as I am not a “wow” fan of Stevie.

Worth pointing out: The one-mile San Rafael is the first test around two turns for Stevie Wonderboy, while Brother Derek is a two-time stakes winner around two turns.

[Glimmerglass]

One of the big tests is this weekend: The Whirlaway (Aqueduct) won last year by Sort It Out in an upset.

An expected change with Achilles of Troy and his rider. See CBS Sportsline 2/6/06 - “Achilles of Troy barnmate also an ace”

Meanwhile, Achilles of Troy will definitely run in the Whirlaway, most likely with Dominguez in the irons. Paragallo believes he needs a veteran rider aboard Achilles of Troy, which is why he said he will “probably” replace Alan Garcia, who has been aboard for all five starts.

“Alan’s a great young rider, he’s just nervous,” Paragallo said. “In these races you need somebody with ice water in their veins; Dominguez has ice water in his veins.”

Looks like it has been confirmed: DRF 2/9/06 - “Dominguez new rider aboard Achilles of Troy”

[Glimmerglass]

re: George Washington

Originally posted by WhiteCamry:
FWIW, he’s Irish-bred.

Originally posted by Drumbiggle:
George Washington is a Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien horse, so he would have been registered with Weatherbys and not the JC.

My original question related to this horse and the JC - the Vegas odds sheet failed to identify the horse properly as “IRE” which would’ve nixed my question

George Washington (IRE)

[Plaza_Suite]

I don’t want to get too excited too soon but, my boyfriend just won the Borderland Derby at Sunland today!

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32342

[Glimmerglass]

Originally posted by Glimmerglass:
In today’s (1/13) Blood-Horse article by Steve Haskin’s he thinks that tomorrow’s race will be all Stevie:

<BLOCKQUOTE class=“ip-ubbcode-quote”><div class=“ip-ubbcode-quote-title”>quote:</div><div class=“ip-ubbcode-quote-content”>So, let’s look for Stevie Wonderboy to win by a length or two in solid, but not spectacular, time over Brother Derek. If the track should come up wet, then it’s anyone’s guess what’s going to happen.

We shall see as I think otherwise

Originally posted by Glimmerglass:
I can easily see Brother Derek winning this race as I am not a “wow” fan of Stevie.

Worth pointing out: The one-mile San Rafael is the first test around two turns for Stevie Wonderboy, while Brother Derek is a two-time stakes winner around two turns. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

:: a pat on my back :: Thank you very much

MSNBC 1/14/06 - Stevie Wonderboy upset in San Rafael Stakes

Again, Stevie is nice, but lets use some logic when anointing a hero before he wins legit.

Results -

1 - Brother Derek
2 - Stevie Wonderboy
3 - Wanna Runner
4 - Woody Be Quick

scratched, M. J. Pkay and Sailors Sunset

[Chanter]

Plaza Suite, here’s to hoping for the best!

[Glimmerglass]

Originally posted by lizathenag:
<Of the last five Derby heroes, their names are between seven and 11 letters, Private Vow is 10>

probably as good a way to pick 'em as any

For what it is worth my fiance picked Giacamo for the Derby (and made a tidy fortune) simply because it was the name of her driver when she spent time at a cooking school in Tuscany.

[Glimmerglass]

<STRIKE>1. Stevie Wonderboy 1</STRIKE>

That is a tough loss to those folks who jumped into the early betting pools thinking Merv had another homerun like his “Wheel of Fortune” or “Jeopardy” shows.

Said Griffin: “He’s out of the Derby. It’s the saddest thing in my life.”

Additionally the news doesn’t look great - although only a bit dim - for one of my favorites, Henny Hughes:

Dubai Racing Club blog - Feb 6 “Henny Hughes to miss UAE 2000 Guineas”

Excerpt:

[I]“We’ve been asked to go for a mile [race] because he hasn’t really proved himself beyond that,” Laird said. “But we’ve got a chance of making the Derby. We’re hopeful his class will prevail; what he may lack in stamina he can make up for in class.”

Laird also suggested that Henny Hughes might be tested in a trial race under the lights at Nad al Sheba to boost the colt’s fitness and to give him the experience of running at night under conditions similar to what he would have to face in the Derby, which is the final jewel of the UAE Triple Crown.

He also did not rule out a start in the second race in the triple series, the US$150,000 Al Bastakiya, also over 1,800 meters, on March 2.[/I]

[Glimmerglass]

Linny good point with Well Armed as he looks impressive having defeated yesterday a slightly older group of horses and have already successful run 1 1/4 mi distance. At 80-to-1 that is a lot of potential return

Related article: Blood-Horse 1/19/06 - “WinStar Colt Wins in Dubai; Aimed at Kentucky Derby”