Kentucky Derby 2006 - odds, etc

[Glimmerglass]

The Associated Press Top 10 list after this weekends races with Samurai’s “win” factored, etc

AP 3-5-06 “Brother Derek moves to No. 1 on Run for the Roses list”

This week’s top 10, with Derby future wager odds: (note, edited content)

1. Brother Derek w/Future Odds: 16-1

2. Bluegrass Cat w/Future Odds: 15-1
3. First Samurai w/Future odds: 7-1
4. Bob and John w/Future Odds: 31-1
5. Barbaro w/Future Odds: 19-1
6. Lawyer Ron w/Future Odds: 21-1
7. Keyed Entry w/Future Odds: 53-1
8. Corinthian w/Future Odds: 3-1 (mutuel field).
9. Private Vow w/Future Odds: 14-1
10. Flashy Bull w/Future Odds: 45-1

[summerly]

GO PRIVATE VOW !!!

[Glimmerglass]

Another horse now on the columnist’s radar is one cited last year and is none other than Lost In The Fog’s stablemate: Frisco Star

(Aside for trivia, his original name: Monster on the Loose)

Blood-Horse 1/6/06 - “Steve Haskin’s Derby Trail Stakes Preview: Aventura Comes Up Strong”

excerpt:

Another colt of interest from the same connections as one of last year’s biggest stars is Frisco Star, who began his career in much the same manner as his stablemate Lost in the Fog. Also owned by Harry Aleo, Frisco Star, a son of More Than Ready, broke his maiden by 8 1/2 lengths on Aug. 6 at Santa Rosa in a track-record 1:01 3/5 for 5 1/2 furlongs. He is up to five furlongs in his works at Golden Gate, and rattled off a half in :46 2/5 three works back on Dec. 17.

also worth citing …

The most notable was Tatsuji, an Irish-bred son of Fusaichi Pegasus who turned in a spectacular performance in his career debut at Santa Anita, in which he got squeezed at the start, dropping far back in last, then unleashed a powerhouse move to sweep by everyone. Despite racing greenly, ducking in at the three-sixteenths pole, he still was able to get back in gear and draw off to an impressive two-length score for last year’s Derby-winning connections, John Shirreffs and Jerry and Ann Moss.

[Glimmerglass]

Worth taking a look at is the race replays from today for the $65,000 Whirlaway Stakes from at the big A and $75,000 Turf Paradise Derby at Arizona, where I’ll be next weekend

In the Whirlaway, Achilles of Troy looked very impressive and pretty much was in-hand coasting along to the finish under Ramone. His stock for the Derby just rose up a few notches.

At Turf Paradise, Bob Baffert thought after the wicked impressive thrashing by Sky Diving at Bay Meadows late January that he’d do the same today. A lovely horse but with going 3-wide for most of the race, he never was able to conserve energy and doomed (but gamely fought hard) when closer Keagan came from downtown.

[Glimmerglass]

WhiteCamry, the track was cited as being dull which accounts for some of the lackluster speed. Heck considering they had to run this a week later - as the track was frozen and not race worthy before - we can see why.

NW Arkansas News 2/26 - “Lawyer Ron given run for the money”

excerpts

Lawyer Ron remained unbeaten in five starts on dirt, but the wire-to-wire Southwest triumph wasn’t anything like his previous three victories, accomplished by a combined 27 lengths.

…

an anxious Lawyer Ron had to be throttled down by McKee early in the 1-mile race, then received about 25 right-handed reminders from the jockey’s whip to hold late-running Steppenwolfer safe on the outside. “This was the first time I’ve ever seen him come back, and he was blowing a little bit,” trainer Bob Holthus said after his record fifth Southwest victory.

…

Lawyer Ron and Steppenwolfer are scheduled to meet again in the $ 300, 000 Grade III Rebel on March 18.

[Glimmerglass]

Wonderful effort from the typically barefoot man, Brother Derek He showed in the $200k G2-Santa Catalina that he is the best contender for the Derby at present.

Next up for him is the Santa Anita Derby (G1) which he’ll look damn hard to beat in.

As for First Samurai his win by virtue of a DQ (which was the correct call IMHO) did little to impress. I just don’t seem him as being able to win the Kentucky Derby. Too many execuses, not enough demonstration he’s going to be good (or great as will be required) at any thing like 1 1/4 mi.

Barely beating Flashy Bull, whom Barbaro easily dismissed isn’t a good sign.

[Arcadien]

Any one see these races on tv anywhere? I can’t find it listed on my cable, help!

Maybe they will show after the fact tomorrow…?

Arcadien

[Glimmerglass]

Originally posted by Arcadien:
Any one see these races on tv anywhere? I can’t find it listed on my cable, help!

Having TVG and HRTV (see schedules) generally assures you that you’ll have access to just about any race here in the States. Lacking in that (like most racing fans) you will be in luck coming up …

BloodHorse - “Eight Derby Prep Races On ABC, ESPN”

basic cable tv aired prep-races

2006 CITGO RACING TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY

Mar 18 on ESPN @ 6-7:30 pm EST

• San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) 3YO
  Santa Anita

• Rebel Stakes (gr. III) 3YO
  Oaklawn Park

• Gotham Stakes (gr. II) 3YO
  Aqueduct

• Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III) 3YO
  Tampa Bay Downs

Mar 25 on ABC @ 3-4:30 pm EST

• UAE Derby (gr. II) 3YO
  Nad Al Sheba

• Dubai World Cup (gr. I) Classic
  Nad Al Sheba

Mar 25 on ESPN2 @ 5-6:00 pm EST

• Lane’s End Stakes (gr. II) 3YO
  Turfway Park

• Rushaway Stakes 3YO
  Turfway Park

Apr 1 on ESPN @ 5-6:00 pm EST

• WinStar Derby 3YO
  Sunland Park

• WinStar Oaks 3YO fillies
  Sunland Park

Apr 8 on ABC @ 4-5:00 pm EST

• Wood Memorial (gr. I) 3YO
  Aqueduct

• Illinois Derby (gr. II) 3YO
  Hawthorne

• Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III) 3YO/Mile
  Aqueduct

• Carter H. (gr. I)

Apr 15 on ABC @ 5-6:00 pm EST

• Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) 3YO
  Keeneland

• Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) 3YO
  Oaklawn Park

Apr 22 on ESPN2 @ 6-7:00 pm EST

• Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. II) 3YO
  Keeneland

• Federico Tesio Stakes 3YO
  Pimlico

Apr 29 on ESPN2 @ 6-7:00 pm EST
“Triple Crown Special”

[Glimmerglass]

Another one to watch: Achilles of Troy (trained by Jennifer Pedersen) who put in a very impressive stakes-record field crushing effort in the Count Fleet Stakes yesterday. Its worth pulling up the NYRA race video on line to see it.

NY Daily News 1/8/06

excerpt:

As impressive as Smarty Jones was ìn winning the Count Fleet Stakes two years ago, Achilles of Troy was even more so yesterday, scoring by 14 lengths after running the mile-and-70-yards in a stakes-record time of 1:39.61 for the distance.

Smarty Jones, of course, went on to capture the 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness and while it’s a long way to go to the May 6 Kentucky Derby, Achilles of Troy looks like he has the ability as long as he stays healthy.

Entering the far turn, jockey Alan Garcia asked on Achilles of Troy ($8.70), and the 3-year-old responded with an explosive run, opening up through the lane to score over Extra Bend and Platinum Couple.

For comparison’s sake, Smarty Jones won the 2004 Count Fleet by five lengths, running the distance in 1:41.42.

Although the connections still haven’t decided on where Achilles of Troy will start next, the Whirlaway Stakes at Aqueduct on Feb. 11 would seem logical, followed by the March 18 Gotham Stakes and then the April 8 Wood Memorial before they can dream of a trip to Churchill Downs for the Derby.

[Glimmerglass]

Originally posted by Glimmerglass:
Los Angeles Daily News 12/16/05 - “Your Tent or Mine is one to watch in Futurity”

If the cleverly named colt - he’s by Forest Camp, out of Shes Got the Look - wins the Futurity, Drysdale will leave Hollywood Park with a prospect for the 2006 Kentucky Derby.[/i]

An upset in the Futurity - but it wasn’t Your Tent or Mine

Hollywood Park 12/17/05 8th Race - Results

Win: Brother Derek
Place: Your Tent Or Mine <-- went off as 2nd fav at 8-5
Show: Bob and John

4th - A. P. Warrior <- went off as the 5-2 favorite

Note Kentucky Derby odds, prior to today’s race:

Brother Derek 40/1
Bob and John (who was previously DQ’d from a graded win on a terrible call) 35/1

[WhiteCamry]

Originally posted by Glimmerglass:

Additionally:

DRF 2/16/05 - “Achilles of Troy will now stay put”

<BLOCKQUOTE class=“ip-ubbcode-quote”><div class=“ip-ubbcode-quote-title”>quote:</div><div class=“ip-ubbcode-quote-content”>Achilles of Troy, convincing winner of the Count Fleet and Whirlaway stakes, will not ship to Florida as originally planned but instead will stay in New York and be pointed to the Grade 3, $200,000 Gotham here on March 18. After that, he would presumably target the Wood Memorial, run on Aqueduct’s main track on April 8.
</div></BLOCKQUOTE>

I hope they don’t rest him too long.

[Glimmerglass]

Another top list - Blood-Horse Feb 14, 2006 (by Steve Haskin)

note because this link page is updated the list below will likely change if you click on it next week

1 - Private Vow: comment “Having trouble finding a horse I’m comfortable with as No. 1, so am going strictly on the belief he’s the most talented 10-furlong prospect. Not crazy about having just two planned starts in 2006 before the Derby.”

2 - First Samurai
3 - Brother Derek
4 - Barbaro
5 - Bob & John
6 - Bluegrass Cat
7 - Cause to Believe
8 - Lawyer Ron
9 - Achilles of Troy

10 - Great Point (Nick Zito trained) comment: “Throwing out his two bad races and looking at the Holy Bull as his coming-out party. His debut was so impressive it’s more likely he’s a good horse who is starting to get his act together. Just needs to be closer to the pace.”

11 - My Golden Song
12 - Flashy Bull

Additionally:

DRF 2/16/05 - “Achilles of Troy will now stay put”

Achilles of Troy, convincing winner of the Count Fleet and Whirlaway stakes, will not ship to Florida as originally planned but instead will stay in New York and be pointed to the Grade 3, $200,000 Gotham here on March 18. After that, he would presumably target the Wood Memorial, run on Aqueduct’s main track on April 8.

[Glimmerglass]

The NY Post cites a top 10 but doesn’t actually list it on their on-line website. In the article, 1/23/06 - Ed Fountaine/NY Post - “Private Vow Sinks” to 10th, the horse Latent Heat (trained by Bobby Frankel with PVal up) breaks the top 10 since his maiden on Dec 26th.

[Glimmerglass]

No Latent Heat

From an article that loves Brother Derek - a horse that I think is currently the best Derby choice at present:

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=2358395

Latent Heat, who finished third in the Santa Catalina, “bucked his shins a little bit” in the race and will not make the Kentucky Derby, trainer Bobby Frankel said Monday.

“We’ll X-ray him in a few days to make sure there’s no crack there,” Frankel said. “I don’t think there is. He’s a little bit sore.”

[Glimmerglass]

Barclay Tagg looks to have another possible contender for the Derby with Showing Up. We’ll see if that’s true when he races in the Wood Memorial (G1) on April 8th. Showing Up did put in a track record effort (alebit a newer track at Gulfstream) for the mile 1:34.05 this past weekend in a very game effort fending off several challengers.

He has two wins in as many starts but no graded earnings so it is still early.

Look for the impressive Cause to Believe to do a Pollard’s Vision and War Emblem thing by going to the Illinois Derby and being essentially off the radar and not overly worn out by Kentucky Derby time. The April 8th Illinois Derby (G2) wil easily vault his earnings - if he wins and no reason to think otherwise now - into Derby contention.

As for this weekend it will be great to finally see in 2006 and FIVE MONTHS after he last raced, Private Vow, run again. We’ll see if he’s all hype or not. I myself think the well tested, toughened up, and far more experienced Lawyer Ron could knock Private Vow’s high pre-Derby ranking down the chart.

ESPN will air on Saturday 3/18 (6 – 7:30 pm EASTERN) four important races including

Lawyer Ron and Private Vow in the G3 Rebel Stakes
Achilles of Troy and Keyed Entry in the G2 Gotham Stakes
Bob and John vs. the impressive Point Determined in the G2 San Felipe Stakes
Bluegrass Cat in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby

[Glimmerglass]

Bump with the TV schedule on Saturday!

ESPN will air on Saturday 3/18 (6 – 7:30 pm EASTERN) four important races including

G3 Rebel Stakes
G2 Gotham Stakes
G2 San Felipe Stakes
G2 Tampa Bay Derby

All four races are exceptionally important to sort out the contenders from the pretenders, in the old cliche

The Blood-Horse has a decent preview of the races and line-up:

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32617

I myself look to see Lawyer Ron knock off Private Vow in the Rebel. The hype may be justified on PV but you can’t knock the battle testing Lawyer Ron has undergone.

[Linny]

Anyone going to Aqueduct for the Gotham? I’ll be there.

[Flypony]

Lawyer Ron, today in the Rebel looks outstanding. Can’t wait to see him and Brother D do battle!

[Glimmerglass]

The ups and downs of this crazy weekend

Well as expected the pretender(s) have dropped almost out of sight. The betting community had a terrible hangover after Saturday’s mess

Luckily I made out very well in the San Felipe and Rebel, but was womped in the Tampa and Gotham. Lawyer Ron was an easy call in advance but who they heck would’ve predicted Like Now in the Gotham?

Accounts suggest that Achilles of Troy was possibly injured in the Gotham and was by all accounts not feeling up to snuff on Friday let alone Saturday’s race

The latest Louisville Courier Journal Derby poll:

Rank - Horse - Previous Top 10 Rank Last Week

1. Brother Derek (pv 1)
2. Lawyer Ron (pv 8)
3. A.P. Warrior (NR)
4. Corinthian (pv 5)
5. Barbaro (pv 4)
6. Point Determined (NR)
7. Bluegrass Cat (pv 3)
8. First Samurai (pv 5)
9. Cause to Believe (NR)
10. Bob and John (pv 7)

Others (in order of votes received): Keyed Entry, Strong Contender, Flashy Bull, Steppenwolfer, Private Vow, Deputy Glitters, Sacred Light, Red Raymond, Dr. Pleasure, Like Now, Sweetnorthernsaint, Sunriver, Your Tent or Mine, Racketeer, Laity, Barbican, Sharp Humor, My Golden Song, Ivan Denisovich, Achilles of Troy, Really Indian, Blazing Rate, Showing Up, High Cotton, Well Armed, Starspangled Gator.

[Glimmerglass]

Achilles of Troy …

From the New York Times 3/19/06 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/19/sports/othersports/19racing.html

The future for Achilles of Troy, the Gotham favorite, is even more murky. After finishing fifth, he was taken off the racetrack in a van. His owner, Ernie Paragallo, said Achilles of Troy had a problem with his right front foot.

Paragallo said the problem surfaced Friday and he wanted to scratch Achilles of Troy but was talked out of it by his trainer, Frank Amonte Jr., and others. Amonte was hired a week earlier to replace Jennifer Pedersen.

“I’m not very happy with him,” Paragallo said of Amonte. “I called him five times today to check on the horse, and every time he told me he was doing great.”