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Kentucky Derby 2006 - odds, etc

Racing
#81

Another one bites the dust …

The latest off-the-Derby Trail: Corinthian

Corinthian out of Triple Crown
By DAVID GRENING
Daily Racing Form 3/22/06

Corinthian, who was disqualified from first in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, has suffered a minor fracture of his left hind ankle and will miss the entire Triple Crown series, his connections said Wednesday.

According to Dr. Stephen Carr, the racing manager for Corinthian’s owners, Centennial Farms, Corinthian suffered a “very small hairline crack on the top of and the front of his long pastern bone in his left hind ankle.”

Carr said he believes the injury occurred during an open gallop that Corinthian had Saturday over the Belmont Park training track. Corinthian, who spent the winter at the Palm Meadows training center in Boynton Beach, Fla., had just returned from there on Thursday.

Carr said the crack is so minor it took digital X-rays to confirm it.

“It’s a common injury,” said Carr. “It does not require surgery. It has a very good prognosis, and it only requires walking about 30 days for it to heal and for him to be able to return to training. He will obviously miss the Triple Crown races and therefore point for such races as the Dwyer, Jim Dandy, and Travers.”

Carr said that Corinthian would remain in trainer Jimmy Jerkens’s Belmont Park barn.

Corinthian had developed into a serious Kentucky Derby contender after he rallied smartly from off the pace to finish first in the Fountain of Youth last month at Gulfstream Park. He was disqualified to third, however, after he veered in on First Samurai, then veered out, carrying First Samurai and Flashy Bull out during the stretch run of the race.

Corinthian had been pointing to the Wood Memorial on April 8.

#82

More on Achillies of Troy

As cited by Equidaily.com, but of course can’t be totally validated as “him”, the new trainer of Achillies of Troy - Ernie Paragallo - reportedly made this heated posting regarding speculation about the horse before and after the poor performance in the Gotham:

Thoro-graph BB, posting by “JKev” on March 20, 2006

excerpt:

[i]First off whoever said Achilles of Troy was lame all week and everyone knew it is a blantent liar or a flat out moron. He was never lame at all, he worked on wed with Ramon and he said he went better than ever, he walked on thurs, on fri he jog and gallopped the exercise rider who has gotten on him every day since before he started his winning streak said he did not act the same he was not pulling at the bit, he never said he was off. I have no idea why this was but his left foot was warm but he seemed to jog fine for the trainer and the vet.

His blood was pulled this morning and the results are pending. He had digital x rays and scans done on both his front legs and he shows nothing even remotley wrong, he is very strong this morning and in fact is meaner than he has ever been. If someone seen him off this week I would like them to identify themseleves because they are liars.

The second point nowhere does it say that the horse had his head sideways when the gate opened causing him to break last and having to be rushed up into a traffic jam going into the first turn and having to be checked 3 times and then having to go 5 wide into very slow fractions. it looked like a carbon copy of the race he ran 4th behind trailing twelve except for being left at the post. [/i]

So it could be him or of course someone who just claims to be him …

#83

Lane’s End Stakes - UK entry

An entry from across the pond has arrived for this Saturday’s G2 $500k Lane’s End Stakes (Turfway Park) : Silent Times from England although Irish-bred.

Already used to the polytrack surface (home track is Averham Park, a polytrack too) the physically large G2 winner already could be a strong contender for the graded Derby prep race …

DRF 3/22/06 “First foreigner here for the Derby”

Selected excerpts:

“This horse loves Polytrack,” said O’Neill, who has been training on his own for five years after having served as an assistant under John Gosden. “I have no concerns about [fitness]. He’s had three racecourse gallops,” or strong, race-like workouts among company, including one last week over Polytrack at Wolverhampton Racecourse, “and he’s pretty straight.”

In the few days before the Lane’s End, Silent Times will train over the five-furlong Polytrack course at Keeneland. “I’ll have him jump out of the gate Thursday,” said O’Neill. “That will be enough.”

Silent Times, a dark bay colt who stands nearly 17 hands, brings impressive bloodlines and racing credentials to the Lane’s End. He is by Danehill Dancer, a son of the late pre-eminent dual hemisphere sire Danehill, and his dam is Recoleta, a full sister to Grade 1 winner Offlee Wild (both being by Wild Again out of Alvear).

Silent Times, who will be ridden by Robby Albarado in the Lane’s End, is a confirmed front-runner. As O’Neill told the Racing Post: “He has a very high cruising speed, and if he gets out in front, he is hard to peg back.”

#84

Wow - Henny Hughes will return to the US; point to the Derby!

I must say I’ve really like this horse a lot all along. He impressed me even when I watched him lose at Saratoga. Yet realistically with so much time lost, almost no 2006 prep race experience and the toll of shipping to Dubai with almost nothing to show for it, you have to wonder if the horse’s talents aren’t essentially wasted for life :frowning:

TB Times 3/22/06 - “Derby hopeful Henny Hughes to return to McLaughlin’s barn in U.S.”

Kiaran McLaughlin, who lost Grade 2 winner Henny Hughes to trainer Saeed bin Suroor’s Godolphin Racing stable in Dubai after his runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), expects to take the three-year-old son of Hennessy back to the United States with him when he returns following the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) card on Saturday.

“That’s the plan now, but you know how things can change,” McLaughlin said Wednesday morning. "Right now, we are expecting that he will be coming back with us, and he’ll go to New York.

“I’m going to stay in Florida through the Florida Derby (G1) [on April 1 at Gulfstream Park], then go to New York, and he’ll train toward the Kentucky Derby (G1) via the New York route.”

#85

wow - someone being humble!

Now how often do you hear this type of honest comment regarding a Kentucky Derby hopeful from their own stable!

re: Discreet Cat

“It’s way too early to even start talking about the Kentucky Derby,” Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford said Wednesday morning from the Al Quoz training center. “This horse is short on experience and long on hype. He’s got tons of speed and it’s highly questionable whether 1 1/8 miles is going to be a true distance for him. It may well be that he becomes a miler or a seven-furlong horse.”

A decision on whether or not to ship Discreet Cat to Churchill Downs will be made after he faces a dozen challengers in the UAE Derby.

By comparison, as Equidaily.com pointed out with another news bit, plenty of hubris here:

Team Valor Headline News March 21, 2006

Belmont Stakes beckons for new 3yo Team Valor purchase, Awesome Again colt will essay final jewel in Triple Crown, French-based prospect will run “off the plane” in final classic …

#86

Disappointingly excluded from Lanes End

Strong Contender and his last effort is worth a look on Calracing.com. It’s a shame that such a fast player gets cut out from a Derby prep race and it could reverberate into him not having enough graded money to go to the Kentucky Derby …

NY Post 3/24

COULDA BEEN A ‘CONTENDER’

By JOHN DASILVA

March 24, 2006 – The lightly raced and undefeated Strong Contender, rated ninth in Ed Fountaine’s Derby Dozen and the probable favorite for tomorrow’s Lane’s End Stakes at Turfway, was excluded from the Lane’s End when 12 other 3-year-olds with higher career earnings were entered for the race. The John Ward trainee, with only $36,000 in career earnings, was 13th on the earnings list for the race, which has a limit of 12 runners and no also eligibles.

Strong Contender will now make the approximately 20-hour van ride back to Gulfstream Park while Ward ponders his next start, which is probably the Illinois Derby on April 1 or the Wood Memorial on April 8. The Florida Derby at Gulfstream is not a major consideration for Strong Contender.

#87

what the heck …

I know that ESPN2 largely botched the airing of the $500,000 Lane’s End Stakes (G2) at Turfway Park Saturday until it was quickly aired with little discussion before or after :frowning:

Doesn’t the NTRA pay for horse racing to be aired? So they pay for the slot then have to get ripped off as tennis goes an hour long and they adhere to womens division 2 baseketball being aired (give me a break) on time?

Anyhow … With a City did a great job winning from nowhere and achieving the highlight of his life but I’m somewhat shocked the connections are saying Derby already for him. Uh, Derby? Yes they now have sufficient graded earnings but seriously can that horse finish in the top 10 in the Kentucky Derby? Shouldn’t they do something like the Bluegrass Stakes to see if this is valid?

12 starts 4-0-2, including a claiming race in December and finishing deadlast in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes early this month.

What is disappointing - but of course this is racing - is that a horse like Strong Contender was cut out of being able to race as they only take 12 horses and it was based on cumulative earnings. Strong Contender was $2,650 shy.

#88

Baltimore Sun top 10

It doesn’t appear too many polls are factoring in the impressive Dubai win of Discreet Cat although these “rankings” seemingly change as often as the weather in Chicago :wink:

Baltimore Sun 3/27/06 - “Ky. Derby chase still in flux”

Triple Crown rankings [per the panel of sportswriters] for March 27, 2006

Horse, Trainer, Jockey, St-W-P-S, Last race, Next race

  1. Brother Derek, Dan Hendricks, Alex Solis, 7-5-0-1, Santa Catalina (1st), Santa Anita Derby (4/8)
  2. Lawyer Ron, Bob Holthus, John McKee, 13-6-1-3, Rebel (1st), Arkansas Derby (4/15)
  3. First Samurai, Frank Brothers, Edgar Prado, 7-5-1-1, Fountain of Youth (pl. 1st), Blue Grass (4/15)
  4. Barbaro, Michael Matz, Edgar Prado, 4-4-0-0, Holy Bull (1st), Florida Derby (4/1)
  5. Bluegrass Cat, Todd Pletcher, John Velasquez, 6-4-1-0, Tampa Bay Derby (2nd), Blue Grass (4/15)
  6. A.P. Warrior, John Shirreffs, Corey Nakatani, 7-3-1-0, San Felipe (1st), Santa Anita Derby (4/8)
  7. Point Determined, Bob Baffert, Garrett Gomez, 5-2-2-1, San Felipe (2nd), Santa Anita Derby (4/8)
  8. Strong Contender, John Ward Jr., Edgar Prado, 2-2-0-0, Allowance (GP) (1st), Wood Memorial (4/8)
  9. Deputy Glitters, Thomas Albertrani, Jose Lezcano, 6-2-1-0, Tampa Bay Derby (1st), Wood Memorial (4/8)
  10. Cause to Believe, Jerry Hollendorfer, Russell Baze, 9-6-3-0, California Derby (1st), Illinois Derby (4/8)

As to how First Samurai moves up is questionable …

#89

Discreet Cat

An interesting bit from the UK paper The Independent March 27 “Cautious route to Kentucky may suit Discreet Cat”

Excerpt:

Discreet Cat has as much charisma as any horse in the [Godolphin] stable since Dubai Millennium, but if he does stay 10 furlongs at the top level then it would be kindest to postpone his first trip to Churchill Downs to November, for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. On the way he could pick off exhausted Triple Crown horses in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga, and he could even start off in its second leg, the Preakness Stakes - over a shorter trip, just a fortnight after the Derby principals have slugged it out in Louisville.

But it is hard to see his owner favouring prudence and caution over adventure and ambition. As a true horseman, he will abide with the stable’s dictum to see how Discreet Cat has taken his race before making any decisions. As a sportsman, however, he has probably made up his mind already.

#90

Will Hill and several of the big British bookies have him at 5/1 j/fav with Brother Derek in the ante-post betting.
That’s probably giving him a little too much credit though. No real value at the price, esp for a horse that’s not even a confirmed runner yet!

Discreet Cat 5/1
Brother Derek 5/1
Lawyer Ron 7/1
First Samurai 10/1
A P Warrior 11/1
Barbaro 12/1
Point Determined 16/1
Bob And John 20/1
Strong Contender 25/1
Keyed Entry 25/1
Cause To Believe 25/1
Bluegrass Cat 25/1
Sunriver 33/1
Sharp Humor 33/1
Flashy Bull 33/1
Deputy Glitters 33/1
With A City 40/1
High Cotton 40/1

#91

If he does race in the Derby my guess is that you’ll get odds the day-of more akin to last year’s “Place” horse, Closing Argument (71-1).

I just don’t see there being much need to lock in a longer odd offering like 40/1; despite the long shot win he just pulled off on Saturday of 48 to 1.

Drvmb1ggl3 I concur that at 5/1 on Discreet Cat is something that few would place a bet on this far out and with so much uncertainty :wink:

Although paddypower.com has The Green Monkey already at odds of 33/1 to win the Kentucky Derby in 2007! wow, wow

#92

"Hey don’t blame us if he does go to the Derby …

A rather well thought out bit of stable-to-betting-public comments:

Sportinglife.com 3/27/06 “GODOLPHIN ISSUE CAT WARNING”

Godolphin have warned punters to hold their bets on Discreet Cat in the Kentucky Derby.

The three-year-old powered to an impressive six-length win in the the UAE Derby at Nad Al Sheba last Saturday, prompting William Hill to make him their 5-1 joint favourite for the Kentucky event.

However, racing manager Simon Crisford is keen to underline the Forestry colt will not be rushed in order to make the Grade One contest.

He told the Racing Post: "Punters would be extremely wise to wait before backing Discreet Cat for the Kentucky Derby.

"We’ve already decided he won’t run in the Blue Grass Stakes or any other American Classic trial and the early thoughts in our camp are that he’ll either go for the Kentucky Derby without another run or the Preakness without another run.

"We’re very much aware that he’s not even three yet as he’s a May 1 foal and he’s very young and still immature.

“For the moment, we’ll just monitor his training and then Sheikh Mohammed will make his decision.”

Everyone should enjoy this bit of news, especially with the weather not exactly the best I’ve ever seen (it snowed!) regarding the Lane’s End Stakes

Ontrack attendance at Turfway Park on Saturday was 23,114, the highest in the track’s history. Turfway ran out of parking spaces by about the third race of the day.

  • source: Daily Racing Form
#93

Charming Image - maybe for Florida Derby

While some may scoff at a claimer who looks to take on the big boys in this weekend’s Florida Derby (G1) but a visual review of his past three races show he has guts and strong desire to win.

Charming Image is worth a look on the calracing.com replays for his recent efforts. He never rushes to the lead at the break but is always a very strong closer who rates just fine and will dig in like a hedgehog and fight to the finish.

One odd semi-recent occurence was on Feb 22 as “Charming Image was also a late scratch after stumbling and unseating jockey Edgar Prado in the post parade.”

If he does go to the FL Derby I’d say he’d be a long shot worth a second look even against the likes of Barbaro.

BloodHorse 3/27 “Charming Image Under Consideration for Florida Derby”

#94

Florida Derby (G1) Saturday

From the DRF, the post positions for the Florida Derby

PP Horse Jockey, ML odds

  1. Hesanoldsalt, E.Castro, 20-1
  2. Flashy Bull, R.Bejarano, 4-1
  3. Saint Augustus, C.DeCarlo, 12-1
  4. Doc Cheney, J.Rose, 12-1
  5. Sunriver, J.Velazquez, 6-1
  6. Rehoboth, J.Castellano, 20-1
  7. Sharp Humor, M.Guidry, 5-1
  8. High Blues, C.Velasquez, 10-1
    9. Charming Image, R.Maragh, 20-1
  9. Barbaro, E.Prado, 8-5
  10. Sam’s Ace, F.Martinez, 20-1

To be aired on NBC Sports April 1st with Commentators: Gary Stevens, Tom Hammond and Donna Brothers; and racing analysts Bob Neumeier and Mike Battaglia.

(My prediction, look for Charming Image to finish in show or better)

#95

more on Charming Image in FL Derby

From today’s Sun-Sentinel 3/30 “Pecoraro’s Charming Image entered as claimer”

Hallandale Beach, FL· Trainer Anthony Pecoraro entered a $40,000 claimer Wednesday morning in the Saturday’s $1 million Florida Derby.

In past years, this decision might have drawn a few laughs and some snide remarks. But this year it seems anything is possible in the weeks leading to the May 6 Kentucky Derby.

The winner of last week’s $500,000 Lane’s End Stakes, With a City, was a former $40,000 claimer from Calder Race Course. The Gotham Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby were won by colts who broke their maiden for claiming tags. And Lawyer Ron, one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby, also ran as a maiden for a claiming tag.

So even after 11 colts were entered for Saturday’s 11/8th-mile Derby, Pecoraro’s Charming Image was given just as much of a shot for the cool million as Lael Stable’s Barbaro, who was made the 8-5 favorite to head to Churchill Downs in five weeks as an undefeated contender.

When asked if he saw last weekend’s Lane’s End, a smile creased Pecoraro’s face and he replied, “I sure did.”

“I guess it’s a question of class,” Pecoraro added of Marc Wexler’s Charming Image, who is undefeated in three starts since being claimed for $25,000 at Calder. “We know he had the heart and he hasn’t done anything wrong.”

And for the snide remark: Steve Haskin, Blood-horse “Haskin’s Weekend Preview: Barbaro at the Gate”

“Charming Image is in way over his head, but has won three in a row while moving up the claiming ladder.”

Perhaps someone should pass along clippings from the $1 million Haskell Invitational not so long ago with former claimer ‘My Snookie’s Boy’ putting the heat - and almost snagging the prize - from the then top 3yr old ‘Lion Heart’. :wink:

#96

This weekends TV racing

Correction on the Florida Derby and where it will be aired - get this … NBC/Universal is airing the race but not on NBC Sports. Instead it will be on the USA NETWORK - a first that I know of :slight_smile:

So look for USA Network Saturday April 1 @ 5 pm EST with the Florida Derby unless its an April Fools joke

Just make sure you can flip the channels fast as ESPN (not the Duce) is to air also at 5 pm the WinStar Derby

The final entries for the $600k WinStar Derby are:
pp Horse

  1. Sky Diving
  2. Wait in Line
  3. Keagan
  4. Doctor Decherd
  5. Wanna Runner
  6. Welfare Cadillac
  7. Blaze It
  8. Might Be Hooked
  9. Belligerence
#97

For the racing gurus among you…did Barbaro look somewhat cumbersome coming off the last turn to you? He is a strong looking colt, but something made me feel a little uncomfortable there in the race…he was a little early with his lead change, was that what I saw?

#98

As was cited during the telecast it was a case of a bit of a lug in with the final stretch but nothing too bad.

The AP Top 10 from April 2nd:

This week’s top 10, with Derby future wager odds:

Source: Associated Press/Forbes April 2, 2006

  1. Brother Derek (Dan Hendricks, trainer, Alex Solis, jockey): Still looks the best … Continues to train strongly for final prep … Next start: Santa Anita Derby (Saturday) … Odds: 10-1.

  1. Barbaro (Michael Matz, Edgar Prado): The countdown begins for unbeaten colt (5-for-5) … Next start: Kentucky Derby (May 6) … Odds: 15-1.

  2. Lawyer Ron (Bob Holthus, John McKee): Rebel winner is 6-for-6 on dirt tracks … Next start: Arkansas Derby (April 15) … Odds: 17-1.

  3. First Samurai (Frank Brothers, Rafel Bejarano): Fountain of Youth winner through DQ gets new rider, who replaces Prado … Next start: Blue Grass (April 15) … Derby odds: 16-1.

  4. A.P. Warrior (John Shirreffs, Corey Nakatani): San Felipe winner could give trainer a chance to win second straight Derby … Next start: Santa Anita Derby … Odds: 3-1 (mutuel field).

  5. Bluegrass Cat (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez): Worked five furlongs in 59.00 Sunday at Palm Meadows, the fastest of 16 horses timed at the distance … Next start: Blue Grass (April 15) … Odds: 11-1.

  6. Keyed Entry (Pletcher, Prado): Worked five furlongs in 1:01.86 Sunday at Belmont … Runner-up in Gotham after winning first three starts … Next start: Wood Memorial (Saturday) … Odds: 21-1.

  7. Point Determined (Bob Baffert, Garrett Gomez): Put in top-notch workout last Monday, four furlongs in 46.80 at Santa Anita … Seems to be improving each time he hits the track … Next start: Santa Anita Derby … Odds: 29-1.

  8. Like Now (Kiaran McLaughlin, Fernando Jara): One of trainer’s three Derby prospects … Won Gotham at 36-1 odds for third straight win … Next start: Wood Memorial … Odds: 3-1 (mutuel field).

  9. Cause to Believe (Jerry Hollendorfer, Russell Baze): California Derby winner starting to impress as final prep draws near … Worked five furlongs in 1:01.60 Sunday at Golden Gate Fields … Next start: Illinois Derby (Saturday) … Odds: 32-1.

Keep an eye on: Bob and John, Deputy Glitters, Sharp Humor, Strong Contender, Sunriver.

#99

Wadda ya saying here Glimmer, that the board has now found their Derby horse! :wink:

Huh, what happened to the post I was responding too? oh well, no big deal

#100

I think a lot of folks here with MM being involved like Barbaro.

Despite the win Saturday with just two starts on dirt and only one on a fast dirt track there are still questions. The FL Derby field wasn’t as strong as say the expected SA Derby or even the Wood.

I’m not knocking him whatsoever but there are reasons to be cautious :wink:

The Louisville Courier Journal had this list of undefeated starters going into the KY Derby: “Undefeated starters in the Kentucky Derby and the results”

Slim pickings with results and mix that with the much cited 5-week layout being untried. That is actually wrong: High Fly and Noble Causeway both had a 5-week gap. For all that rest they came in 10th and 14th.

He’ll be a very solid Derby candidate for sure.

For the record as I mentioned him, Charming Image, the claimer, finished 8th out of 11 horses in the FL Derby. Not an embarassment as it was also within a tight bunch of finishers.

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