Kentucky Derby 2015

[QUOTE=findeight;8131340]
Horse won a race yesterday, didn’t really catch all of it it. Name is Japan out of Bill Motts barn, he beat Keen Ice and several others in the Derby field recently, talking about the Preakness as a possibility for him. Just food for thought trying to figure out who to use or not on your exactas.[/QUOTE]

Here’s Japan’s race record: http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9319099&registry=T

He broke his maiden in his third start yesterday. I don’t see any Derby entrants, including Keen Ice, in any of the fields he raced against.

Mr Z certainly has a lovely pedigree. if it was a paper race I would bet on him.

That’s what happens when you are just catching bits of a telecast…my bad.

Right now NBC Sports channel is running replays of recent Derbys between some very nice stakes races preceeding the Oaks, just showed Animal Kingdom and Mine That Birds wins. Kind of fun to watch, it’s on until 6:30 ETD. Got some Derby interviews too. Not helping me figure out how to bet tomorrow though.

Mine That Bird is one of my favorite race calls ever. Tom Durkin doesn’t even SEE the mud-colored horse on the rail until he’s opened up on the field.

Just saw on his fb page, that Calvin’s mount El Kabeir has been scratched. Apparently he is not feeling well (the horse, not Calvin!)

During the Oaks telecast, they sure were devoting 90% of the chit chat to the same 3 or 4 Derby colts and the usual, inane fashion babble and clueless semi celebrity interviews. I was kind of disappointed they didn’t give more of an analysis of the other 15 colts in the field or at least some of them if they were going to devote such a huge amount of their conversation to the Derby and not the races in front of them.

[QUOTE=Lori T;8132046]
Just saw on his fb page, that Calvin’s mount El Kabeir has been scratched. Apparently he is not feeling well (the horse, not Calvin!)[/QUOTE]

Apparently what they thought was a bruise is an abscess.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/04/puppies-predict-kentucky-derby-tonight-show-jimmy-fallon

Puppy Predictors have American Pharaoh as the winner! (worth watching because the puppies are so darn cute!)

Unfortunately Ramsey isn’t going to get a chance to see if he finally has a Derby horse. International Star has been scratched due to heat in his hoof.

I just don’t know - I’m putting my virtual bets on any of the A.P. Indy’s
so should have a good chance of placing at least one of them, no?

And the one’s that don’t place I’m taking home for show horses.

[QUOTE=Sunflower;8132466]
http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/04/puppies-predict-kentucky-derby-tonight-show-jimmy-fallon

Puppy Predictors have American Pharaoh as the winner! (worth watching because the puppies are so darn cute!)[/QUOTE]

so funny!

Sentimentality is admittedly a terrible way to bet. But that said I am all over Ocho Ocho Ocho. By Street Sense out of a mare who herself calls Personal Ensign as her grandmother. There’s a ton to like and the fact that he is in the 1 hole for a mile and a quarter I think can be seen as a positive. I think it’s possible that coming out of the 1 hole in the Blue Grass as his last prep could play into their hands.

His trainer is a good guy with a solid record and a good rep.

His jock is underrated but capable.

The Derby is a great race to throw caution to the wind and go with the longshots. So this guy is where I am throwing my money.

Em

Meh, I ended up putting money (but not a lot) on, like 6 or 7 horses, all simple WPS across the board or just show. $2 or $5 depending on how strongly I felt or just as a CYA move. No exactas or anything, too many horses to try to get in those, have to wheel with too many and don’t want to get that much money out there. Wagered a bit more then usual as it is.

The toughest thing was trying to compare past performances, you really can’t, not much in common. Went on connections, bit of breeding and looked a little at the Breyer #, plus hunches.

The most challenging thing was using the automated wagering machine for the first time. Bit of a learning curve but got the right numbers in the right race.

The weather is drop dead gorgeous but it’s going to be close to 80 by post parade time. If any of them get nervous or upset by the crowds and tight spaces, won’t be a plus.

Sticking my neck out, went with AP, Frosted and Mumbaathij (sp?) with lesser wagers on Firing Line and Upstart, could not resist a couple of bucks on Materialist, Danzig Moon and Far Right. Heck, it’s $2, all they have to do is get their nose in 3rd, you never know.

Did not use Dortmund. That, no doubt, means you all should :lol:

I am not betting-- but I have decided I like Dortmund best and after that American Pharaoh.

This Derby is so tough - so many really good horses, not really any standouts. It’s going to be an exciting race , and may all of them come home safe !

Ocho and Bolo belong on grass–even Ocho’s trainer was very lukewarm and only said something earlier this week about it being ‘where the connections want him.’

My stupid illogical pick is Firing Line. I can’t help but go with a horse Gary feels that good about. Serious picks are Dortmund, Frosted, American Pharoah, Upstart, with Materiality and Danzig Moon. And my heart is breaking for the Ramseys. I didn’t really like International Star to win except by sentiment but geez, if there are owners who ought to have roses…Though I agree with a friend who said on Spiral day as we watched one “Kitten” this and “Kitten” that go to the gate, "I want to see the next one named “Another Darn Kitten.”)

Not better either but I’m rooting for either American Pharaoh or Danzig Moon (sticking my neck out a bit on DM).

:smiley:

Free live stream link? I’m on the road …

Yeah, on paper DM is not fast enough but is on the improve and can’t read. I took a chance on him too-and he’s pretty.

OMG it’s Tara and Johnny. In stoopid costumes. Time to go to a Derby party to eat, drink and pick a name out of the hat for 10 bucks that probably will come closer then the more “scientific” picks I spent time changing my mind over again and again the last few days.

ARGH! I can’t believe they have that guy Johnny Beardsley (sic?)on here again. OMG I guess we’ll just have to get used to it.