I know several here are down on Boyd for having two falls, but he was the highest placed US rider AGAIN. I see Boyd, Tammie and Liz as having the best chance of a good dressage score and being able to get around.
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The only thing I really worry about with Boyd is his fitness/body. He is certainly a fierce competitor. Heâs worked through so many injuries. Poor guy has a bruised up chin in photos from today.
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Assuming everyone is sound, I would still put Boyd/Thomas and Tami/Lexus on the plane. Third spot is up in the air, but I like Liz/Deniro Z and Doug/Quinn. Quinn can do a MUCH better dressage test than he did this weekend.
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I donât think you can count out Phillip Dutton.
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Me neither.
If I were betting:
Phillip, Boyd, Tami⊠Liz and/or Doug as reserves/alternates (will they name 1 or 2 in the new format? Missed that).
Back in November 2020, the Eventing High Performance Elite training list included Phillip and Z, Boyd and Thomas, Liz and Deniro Z, and Doug and Vandiver (Quinn). When you look at that list, three of the four - Phillip, Liz, and Doug and their named horses - completed Kentucky this weekend and finished well (8th, 10th, 12th). Phillip and Doug moved up all weekend through the three phases, Liz was fairly level.
Boyd was eliminated on his named horse - late in the xc course during his third ride of the day - after he had taken a fall first thing. The point at which Boyd was eliminated was past where the Olympic course would have ended (I think). Mitigating factors?
Tamie and Lexus werenât in the mix for the Elite winter training , but if they hadnât activated that frangible on xc yesterday and still show jumped the way they did today, theyâd be looking like a sure thing for Tokyo (assuming soundness).
Here is the document detailing selection procedures https://www.usef.org/forms-pubs/73Xslpm-8Ok/amended---2020-olympic-games-selection Looks like the four who travel will be named on or before June 1. Lots of time between now and then for things to happen to riders or horsesâŠ
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Just IMO âŠ
An Olympic team canât be selected on one result, one frangible activated, just one thing.
A larger picture has to be considered. Showing up in the big moments, over and over. Horse and rider showing consistent brilliance. Traveling overseas well. Adapting to the team.
It would be a gigantic mistake to select the team based solely on this one event.
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Tamie and Lexus have international experience - were on the Gold Medal Pan Am team for the US in 2019 (although they were the drop score with an xc penalty) and also placed 11th at Boekelo that year (Boekelo is on the list of Olympic selection trials though the document states that more recent events are more important). I think they are definitely in the mix and not just based on Kentucky this year.
I totally agree with you, but thatâs what concerns me. Of the four that are on the elite list, plus Tamie and Lexus, everyone has had a significant issue in a high profile setting, either today or recently (and Iâm being generous with the word recent bc covid):
Liz and Deniro Z: eliminated for an XC fall at Aachen (though he went on to jump clear if a bit slow at Burghley)
Tamie and Lexus: the frangible here plus 40 penalties at Pan Ams
Boyd and Tsetserleg: the fall here, and 20 for the refusal at WEG that was huge for the team (though, again, he made it work when it counted at Pan Ams)
Doug and Quinn: arguably less high profile, but back to back eliminations for falls at Burghley and the Plains, and while he jumped around great all weekend, some of the dressage scores are in the âgood but not in top contentionâ range
Philip and Z: eliminated for a fall at Aachen
All of these riders and horses are capable of turning in great performances, and maybe weâll get lucky and whoever gets picked will all have a great weekend at the same time. But I donât think you can look at the record of US riders in major international competition for the last few years and feel like itâs a super bet â theyâre just a higher variance group than say, the Kiwis at the moment.
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I personally think the US team selection strategy this time around should be to send a team that is likely to move up all weekend rather than a team that will be in contention after the dressage phase. We do have the advantage of more experience than most with Derek diGrazia cross country courses, and the show jumping seems fairly strong among the most likely team members. Being in contention for either team or individual medals after dressage sometimes seems to influence decision making on xc day in not a good way. I think Iâd choose the combinations that have the highest likelihood of clean xc and show jumping rounds as long as the dressage is acceptable. But then, no one is asking meâŠ
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If this had been a different 5* that had had as many falls xc, wouldnât the COTH hive mind be ranting about xc safety and the incompetence of the Course Designer? It is hard to see on a live stream, but riders didnât seem to be using many of the available alternatives. I canât recall many run-outs either.
P.S. I thought it was a good course.
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Thereâs another thread on that, too, donât worry.
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I hesitate to consider Olympic teams at this point in time.
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Competing locally on a string of horsesâhe had 5 horses do 2 rounds each at a recent jumper show up to level S (1.40m), took a few horses around Prelim or two, and retired fischerRocana. Probably aiming for LuhmĂŒhlen. The herpes outbreak and Covid have thrown a wrench in everyoneâs plans over here.
The horse looked more lame in the second presentation to me. I donât find presenting a horse for inspection a sign of bad horsemanship per se.
I remember grooming for a rider whose horse had hit his cannon pretty good through the boot. He was definitely sore after XC, and we spent all evening and all the next morning speaking extensively with vets and others about what was best for the horse. The onsite vet, the physio, David OC (stabled next to us), Penny Rowland (also a vet), and anyone else whose opinion could have been helpful. Everyone agreed that he should be presented, and he passed the jog without being held, jumped brilliantly, and was moving better after jumping than he was before the jog. I would imagine OTâs team did the sameâconsulted with everyone and their brother about what to do.
We know that there is a fine line between pushing and calling it a day. Itâs not like he asked the horse to pull a Kerri Strug. That line is absolutely thin, and that is why we have the inspectionsâto get neutral opinions of multiple other experts on which option is the better one. And if he had been watching his own second presentation, I think he might have agreed with the decision.
I remember driving to the T3DE in Montana, and at the first inspection my horse was slow to be accepted. At the time I was very confused, but when I saw the video of his first jog weeks later I realised how much the travel had stiffened him up (even though I had done everything I could for him to ensure he was loose and fit). Especially when I saw the video of his second jog, where he was accepted quickly, and could compare the two. The horse was totally fine the whole time, but he was just a bit stiff and tense at the first jog. Sometimes we donât see what others do in the moment. Again, thatâs why we have inspections.
Itâs easy to armchair the decision to present, but it doesnât automatically tell me that he is a bad horseman.
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I agree with who is âin the mixâ. I really believe Doug & Phillip are our most consistent jumping riders and believe those two are our best shot at finishing a team and climbing up the leaderboard. Then I would hope Tamie Smith is there too since May Baum is just incredible!
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One of the hallmarks of poor horsemanship is trying to compete a lame horse. OT presented a lame horse, hoping the lame horse could pass so he could jump it.
If it werenât a high profile accomplished rider, the feedback would be very different.
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I agree with this, although I doubt it will happen. The selectors (understandably, I guess) tend to look for the team that, IF everyone completes, can finish on the podium ⊠versus the team that will definitely get around XC but is maybe less spectacular in the dressage. But Iâd personally like to see the team finishing versus having great dressage then having pairs not make it around XC.
That said, in recent years we donât seem to have as many pairs in the US that are true XC machines, with or without the dressage scores.
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Of course there is going to Olympic discussions unless they get canceled which seems might be a good possibility. I know people view the Olympics as a big deal but they are not the pinnacle of the sport. IMHO, being involved in the Olympics has had a very negative impact on the sport. Despite that opinion, we have done the Boyd, Phillip (because they can get any horse around a course viewpoint) and someone else now for several iterations of the Olympics and WEG, and it hasnât done us much good. We donât show up the results.
Iâm not blaming Boyd or Phillip but maybe it is time to change the mentality and look to add some home run hitters instead. Maybe theyâll hit a home run or maybe they will strikeout but at least go into the games with the highest upside you can. I like Boyd, he is a great rider, but he has had some really significant injuries in the past. Heâs a little fragile. It doesnât matter how great a rider you are if you are not healthy because your riding will be compromised. Phillip is 57 now maybe it is time to put younger riders on and actually try to develop some depth. When you look at the upcoming games, can you really say that we have a chance to medal as a team? I donât think so. Send some high potential younguns and develop for the future.
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I agree with this. It really seems black and white when compared to riders like Buck who will gladly pull up on xc because the horse doesnât feel right. After two lost shoes on xc, I would think one of them if not both wouldnât feel âright.â
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If Boyd and Phillip are allegedly limiting us, then who exactly is our home run hitter who can surpass their performance?
We literally do not have anyone better at this point in time. I mean, we have equally good riders, but no one with the combination of experience and consistent horse power.
I think we need to come to terms with the fact that even our best riders are a cut below the top riders in the world at this time.
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