I’ll make this question to the point (I’m really curious to discuss this since I havent seen it discussed much), but what does everyone think about American Pharoah’s chances for being a good breeding stallion given his pedigree, etc…
We all know he’s got the brains and running ability but everybody knows that sometimes stallions dont quite live up to expectations given whatever circumstance.
Chances are he will not improve on himself but his overall effect will not be known for generations. Pedigree alone cannot answer that question. It’s going to be 4 years before we get any inkling of track ability, much longer for ability of direct offspring as producers themselves.
Thats why breeders are conservative booking to unproven stallions despite track success. Right now Pioneer of the Nile seems the hot horse but he is young yet with his fourth crop just getting started, don’t know the size of his book offhand, how many mares, their quality, foals and how many getting to the gate. Don’t know that he has been that popular compared to others in his class. But imagine he’s going to get more popular.
Honestly, if anybody ever figured out exactly how to pick mares and stallions by pedigree? Everybody else would be out of business, and they’ve been trying for centuries. There’s even computer programs looking for the perfect formulas.
Whatever happens in terms of the racing success of his babies, with that amazing stride and nice temperament, I’m thinking we’re going to have some very very nice OTTBs for sport horses from the ones that don’t work out at the track. 
Do they still breed the prospective stallion to “test” mares? I seem to vaguely remember Secretariat being bred to an appaloosa, and producing a very nice colt. Would be great to have Pharoah’s test mares be sport horses, maybe start a line of eventers/jumpers.
Maybe they don’t do the test mare thing anymore?
Of all the big names headed to the shed this week I would bet on Honor Code to have the biggest impact but AP will definitely be given every chance to excel. I agree his temperament will be a welcome asset to the OTTB market in several years.
What mare lines do you think will mesh well with AP and Pioneer of the Nile?
Why will Honor Code have such an impact, considering the many AP Indy sons available?
I leave the pedigree analysis to the experts so can’t help you there. The rest is just a hunch. I really loved Honor Code when I saw him at Belmont.
Not trying to be disagreeable, but the statement I bolded is not entirely true in today’s market. These days, stallions frequently get their best and biggest books before any of their foals hit the track.
Breeders have short memories. When the new guys hit the shed, everyone flocks to them hoping to get in on the next big thing.
I sent my mare to Cowboy Cal in 2014. He is currently #3 on the third crop sires list, behind Pioneerof the Nile and Colonel John. He covered 128 mares his first season. This year, despite having millionaire and several stakes winners representing him on the track, he covered a whopping 8 mares. Pioneerof the Nile has had books in the 130s-140s his entire breeding career. This year he “only” covered 139 mares, which is not even his biggest book to date. While he was not yet the sire of a TC winner (or even a Derby winner) when those mares were booked and bred, American Pharoah was indeed established as a top juvenile and top three year old early on this year.
American Pharoah will have a full book for 2016 and likely his entire career.
[QUOTE=FatDinah;8383964]
What mare lines do you think will mesh well with AP and Pioneer of the Nile?
Why will Honor Code have such an impact, considering the many AP Indy sons available?[/QUOTE]
I’m not your expert but I just looked him up and what an interesting damline there is on Honor Code. His dam is a Storm Cat daughter and Serena’s Song grandaughter. The whole pedigree is full of black type.
[QUOTE=Maythehorsebewithme;8383677]
Do they still breed the prospective stallion to “test” mares? I seem to vaguely remember Secretariat being bred to an appaloosa, and producing a very nice colt. Would be great to have Pharoah’s test mares be sport horses, maybe start a line of eventers/jumpers.
Maybe they don’t do the test mare thing anymore?[/QUOTE]
I’ll settle for nice Thoroughbred mares for eventers and jumpers. 
I think Honor Code is gorgeous, and almost spooky how much he resembles his sire. If he has the Serena’s Song line, that is impressive.
I thought HC ran a great race, like Shug said, he was the only closer running at the end and made up a lot of ground.
HC is beautiful but he got his butt handed to him on Saturday. Yep, he closed and gained ground but the race was hardly a show of HC. Effinex, now that horse ran an insane race.
[QUOTE=FatDinah;8384167]
I think Honor Code is gorgeous, and almost spooky how much he resembles his sire. If he has the Serena’s Song line, that is impressive.
I thought HC ran a great race, like Shug said, he was the only closer running at the end and made up a lot of ground.[/QUOTE]
Is he from AP Indy’s last foal crop, or next to last? I really like the horse, and on paper think he’d be pretty popular from a breeding lines perspective.
I wouldn’t mind picking up a “less successful” offspring of either him or AP in another 5 years or so!
Soo, racing newbie flame suit on thoughts of crossing AP or PotN with Zenyatta??? Super horse or incompatible bloodlines?
[QUOTE=JenEM;8384560]
Is he from AP Indy’s last foal crop, or next to last? I really like the horse, and on paper think he’d be pretty popular from a breeding lines perspective.
I wouldn’t mind picking up a “less successful” offspring of either him or AP in another 5 years or so! :D[/QUOTE]
He’s from the last crop. A.P. Indy was officially pensioned from stud on April 8th, 2011; about a month after Honor Code was foaled. No 2012 babies, he covered 25 mares in 2011 and none of them caught.
Also. Life goals: Own OTTB by one of these horses good lord.
[QUOTE=Texarkana;8384066]
American Pharoah will have a full book for 2016 and likely his entire career.[/QUOTE]
I’d agree with full book 2016 and likely 2017. Entire career, he’s gotta produce or it won’t be full (or he’s priced commiserate with an “average” TB stallion). I think Silver Charm is who I’m thinking of… just didn’t throw near his level of performance.
And I see that AP has already arrived at Ashford to start his racing let down. Acccording to Bloodhorse, he’ll test breed a few mares in December before his career officially starts in February. I think they said he would be turned out with Thunder Gulch to learn some of the ropes.
I wonder if Smokey retired with him…
what is the process of being let down at a stud farm like this? I’m assuming he will not be ridden?
[QUOTE=She’s Pure Gold;8384605]
Soo, racing newbie flame suit on thoughts of crossing AP or PotN with Zenyatta??? Super horse or incompatible bloodlines?[/QUOTE]
If the Moss’s were breeding to sell, they might go to a hot sire just for the sake of the name. A PoTN – Zenyatta would sell for multi millions (if it was good looking). But Z has hardly been a resounding success as a broodmare, so (IMO, of course) the Mosses will probably stick to established stallions to have the best chance of getting a good runner.
I certainly have been wrong before though .
What about he and Zenyatta???
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