its not a good race for bettors but this is a great race to watch this year! it’s truly anyone’s race to win!
I was also surprised that Mendelssohn didn’t ship with Rayya and come in earlier.
But, that’s why the connections get the big bucks 
For me, PPs ended up not calling out the winner but just adding more “interest” into the mix and charge to the clubhouse turn.
That is exactly what makes a race good for the bettors.
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I guess it depends how you look at it. you bet the long shots (there are plenty) and you could cash out big time
At Arkansas three weeks ago, I was staking out the paddock, waiting for the horses for the big race to come in, holding down my spot at the rail. Got into a conversation with the guy staking out his two feet of rail next to me, and we started talking about how we picked horses. For me, in that situation (where I can actually see them), it’s a combination of past performance plus who looks in the zone in the paddock and ready that race. I did comment on the heart attack that Whitmore gave everybody a few races before though, dead last at the top of the stretch, somehow still managed to get there. I know he’s come from behind, but that was extreme even for him. I had picked him and bet on him, but he sure gave us a few doubts.
My neighbor shook his head and said he couldn’t imagine betting on Whitmore. Or on Magnum Moon in the Ark Derby. Odds too low. He said he refuses to bet on anything at odds of less than 15-1. Never even looks at past performances. He also likes grays, and a gray longshot is his ultimate. He’d rather not bet than bet one of the favorites. I asked how often he won with that strategy, and he said not too often, but has fun doing it. He’d rather cash a long shot every 30th ticket than win steadily.
Um, okay. Variety is the spice of life, with people as well as horses.
I’ll stick to considering past performance and such as part of my equation, though, even though I’m purely a couple-of-bucks bettor in it just to have fun.
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good tactics! I like behavior as well. I think solomini might be high as kite with the atmosphere on race day; he is a very interesting character. I’m a bit all over the place with handicapping the derby. It’s far different than most other races; mostly because of the sheer size of the field, the auxiliary gate, the rowdy crowds, etc. It’s really anyone’s game. I think
Lone Sailor is the most stunning individual in the race but no one talks about him. He is based at Churchill and he’s been training like a beast. His two downfalls are his lack of experience and his attitude; he can be a handful too (but he has been based at Churchill so he’s probably used to it now). he has been paddock school at Churchill through the end of April.
Mendelssohn does not like kick back in his face and his two most impressive races came from being hardly hustled from the gate and then running at the front the entire race. From the outside PP; he may have a hard time getting up front, settling in and having enough gas in the tank to run home. Combine that with the fact that he’s been locked up in quarantine until Thursday morning…
Justify: I like him. its hard not to like a baffert horse. he’s all business. but I worry if he gets body slammed a bunch coming out of 7 and loses concentration. He doesn’t have a ton of experience.
Good Magic: he’s got a good PP and his last race was pretty nice. He’s used to this type of atmosphere. Could be aq good one to look at on Saturday??
My Boy Jack: Another sleeper. good PP, used to the big races, doesn’t mind being in traffic. Only concern with him is will he have enough “Go” at the top of the stretch. He doesn’t strike me as being a big-kick type of horse. He might hit the board though!
Hofburg: I genuinely think he’s work looking at.
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I think Hofburg might be a sleeper, too. Justify and Mendelssohn are my favorites right now, but we shall see. Even though I saw the Ark Derby, and Magnum Moon was definitely the most impressive-looking horse in the paddock, his race there bugged me with that extreme drift. Not sure what zip code he’ll be racing in. On the other hand, they said that about Whirlaway back in his year, too. But I doubt MM is another Whirlaway, and I have to give the Jones Boys the knowledgeable trainer award over Todd Pletcher.
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In defense of Mendelssohn, he shipped about the same length of time prior to the Breeders Cup last fall.
That doesn’t exactly make me feel all warm and fuzzy inside when he’s in quarantine walking the shedrow prior to one of the most competitive races in the world, though.
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Here is an interesting piece of trivia for you:
Northern Dancer only had one derby starter. One. That’s it. That doesn’t seem possible.
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Hofburg is a stunning individual. From the side profile, when he is out galloping on the track, you can kind of see some Big Red in him; although the 2 shots of BIg Red in his pedigree are back in the 5th generation. He is a very stout, strong horse. Despite being a Tapit; he is very easy going, all business. He is a maternal brother to Emollient (1.3 million in earnings) who won 3 G1’s in her career as a 3 year old. HIs maternal brother, Courtier, won 3 stakes races at 3 for Juddmont.
Hofburg only has 3 races under his belt and in his last start he was 2nd to Audible in the Florida Derby after racing 4 wide into the stretch. He may not have experience but he loves Churchill and if he gets a clean trip Saturday; watch out.
a Tapit has yet to win the derby, correct? perhaps this is his year
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I have been out to watch some of the horses(not all) gallop,and honestly of all the Derby horses I got to see, hands down the most impressive was Vino Rosso.
He was everything you want to see in a horse heading into a big race, and he seemed to handle the track beautifully.
Now if he only had a better post position!
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PP is the abbreviation for past performance, not post position.
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are you always this grumpy as you have been lately???
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That’s pretty mean. I’m just pointing out that most race people read “past performance” when they see PP, and the post does not make sense when the poster uses PP to mean “post position.” That is no reason to call someone grumpy.
It’s both.
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Thanks Texarkana
Anyone in racing who uses PP as a word is referring to past performance, not post position. Post position is referenced as hole.
So if Audible wins, Audible the company is giving away the book American Pharaoh for free.
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Mendelssohn seems no worse for the wear.
In writing, it is both.
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t…sion-coverage/
Personally, the only time I have spoken the phrase “PP” is when I’m describing the bathroom habits of toddlers. I’m much more likely to say “form” for past performances, just like I’d say “hole” or “slot” for post position.
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