What’s the weather today at Churchill? Wet or dry track?
I’ve seen Justify in person twice and he is impressive when he lengthens into his stride. But I’m not sure how handy and battle hardened he is. More to the point, his tendency to break a step slow may be his undoing. OK he didn’t do it in the Santa Anita Derby but he’s only had three starts and he’s only been in the gate with a handful of horses each time. He’s never shipped and run or run anywhere but Santa Anita.
There’s actually a reason for the Apollo curse–when things don’t go your way in a 20 horse field, they may really not go your way and you need a horse who is both seasoned and mentally tough. That’s hard to do in a small handful of starts. If Justify breaks a step slow and gets swallowed up in the first turn in the battle charge that is the Derby, he could be 17th early in the race and wondering what the hell is going on. I’m not even addressing the question that they all have to face of the ten furlongs and the wild crowd like nothing any of them have ever seen.
The Derby is not for the best horse but the luckiest one. So far Justify has been pretty lucky but he will not get the same scenario as the Santa Anita Derby where he’s the lone speed to be reeled in. I’d put a line through that race for both him and Bolt D’Oro. It wouldn’t surprise me a bit if the tables are turned on Saturday.
I like Justify, Vino Rosso, and Audible. If Justify breaks well then I think he can do it. Vino Rosso is just a beautiful horse, I don’t think his post position will hurt him with his running style. Audible is a nice horse, he just doesn’t wow me as much as the other two.
I’ll wait till I see them in the paddock tomorrow before I make my final call though.
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its currently overcast but not raining. it’s humid. thunderstorms expected towards PM
Derby Day: Cloudy. high 73 degrees. Less than 20% chance of rain (I count that as a passing shower)
I don’t know if this has been posted, but I’ll be cheering this filly on! I just read her story and it has me in tears.
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Superb win by Monomoy Girl! I know Johhny V had to give the objection a try but I’m delighted that they didn’t take the winner down.
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Love your recap, Texarkana.
I am Mendelssohn all the way, though. He just seems superior. Hard to dismiss the Beholder/Into Mischief family picture, too. But agree - a little scary how Ryan Moore guns him out of there. Hopefully he’s watching a lot of films tonight?
LaurieB, I agree completely.
Nice, gutsy win by Monomoy Girl. JV had to try but when I was watching the head-on view, just didn’t see enough to take her down (of course, I’m also not a steward 
).
Evem Mark Casse said he thought the call was the right one. He said he though the stewards made the right call.
Rayya, the BH article didn’t mention her or how she was after the race. She had a horrible break and looked to have banged her left shoulder on the gate on the way out and just never recovered. 
Also hope Take Charge Paula is ok. She sure backed out of it fast when she did stop.
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I don’t think it’s really a curse, but whatever issues prevented the horse from running at age 2 still has some kind of impact when it comes to handling a really tough race like the Derby.
It’s going to be dry and fast until it rains, then it will be sloppy. 
I still like Mendelssohn to win it, but Bolt D’Oro is getting overlooked and he may be a decent price for a horse that has a legitimate chance. I love this Derby, it’s a nice field of really nice colts. I will absolutely bet that there will be no Triple Crown winner.
Aiden O’Brien is actually there in Kentucky. He made his first appearance yesterday. I don’t think he usually makes the trip when he has a runner in the Kentucky Derby.
Looks like he brought his weather with him.
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While I haven’t seen an official report, it looked to me & many others commenting, that Rayya hit her head when coming out of the gate. Hopefully someone gives an update on her.
I too wondered about TCP, wondered if she was just that tired or if something went wrong??? Again no updates on her either
Sad but sweet story. How hard that time must have been for him, waiting for the phone call. :sadsmile: On a brighter note (for me anyway!) I was happy to see Calvin’s name. And coming in nith seems pretty respectable for a horse with her exposure.
I re-watched the break from the gate on NBCSN and it looked to me like Rayya hit her left shoulder on the gate on the way out. Hadn’t heard the comments about hitting her head
I agree, wish we could hear that both Rayya and TCP are okay. TCP sure backed out of the race quickly when she did stop
Has anyone figured out a way to watch today’s Churchill Downs races on TV (pre-Derby)? TVG isn’t showing them. NBCSN isn’t showing them (commentator said, “oh look, they’re racing behind us” as he continued talking about the Derby.) RTN doesn’t carry CD and I refuse to sign up for TwinSpires. Am I just out of luck?
After reviewing everything including this thread, decided to skip the trip up to the nearby Racino to actually put money on this one. Looks like it will be hard to make much payback on unless you get lucky with a bunch of exacta combos pairing a fav with a middle odds type. So many are so similar, same hints of talent, same questions. Don’t feel strongly about any of them. Favorites all have questions the race will have to answer, the mid odds group are well matched and, despite some hype and cute stories, don’t see a real live on in long shot group there.
Think Justify should have it to lose but he is not only lightly raced but, as the talking heads pointed out yesterday, he has never faced more then 6 horses in his 3 races, Judging by how many come apart in the the tight saddling paddock at CD or leave their race in front of the chaos of the stands in the post parade, if he can overcome that and prove he can fight in out in a crowd with dirt/mud flying in his face, he’s a great horse. Not convinced yet.
Like O’Brian. And he knows what he’s doing but not convinced that horse can handle what is being asked. If he proves it, he’s a great horse.
Theres just too many others in there that maybe might get it done so I’ll save my money for the BC wagering. Since there’s no money involved, I will go with Justfy because of the Jockey and he’s my favorite color:D. Mendelssohn second choice because of his trainer. Bolt d’ Oro because it’s Cinco de Mayo and there’s T’storms.
Longshort My Boy Jack because of the story. Very scientific. When I skip putting actual money on them, they often do quite well.
Just watching the NBCSp undercard. They are remarking that so far the track is showing no bias and I didn’t think it showed any yesterday so there shouldn’t be any excuses for any very good to potentially great horse not firing. hopefully, the rain moves out shortly, as predicted, and the track can dry some but it doesn’t look that bad right now.
Thank you!
Yes, thank you! NBC is infuriating.
