Pegasus World . . .

[mommy_peanut]

Gun Runner is most likely out of the PWC.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/219290/gun-runner-likely-out-of-pegasus-world-cup

[Where_sMyWhite]

Ralis out and Semper Fortis is taking his spot.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/219304/semper-fortis-takes-ralis-spot-in-pegasus-world-cup

[Glimmerglass]

Final switches with horse entries for the field of 12 starters & their post position (PP) drawn this afternoon:

By the way Peter Aiello will call the race on site and on NBC - not Larry.
Jay Stone did the Morning Line

PP. Horse. Trainer. Morning Line

1. Arrogate. B Baffert. (7/5)
2. Prayer For Relief. D Romans. (50-1)
3. Neolithic. T Pletcher. (30-1)
4. Noble Bird. M Casse. (25-1)
5. War Story. J Navarro. (50-1)
6. War Envoy. C Dollase. (50-1)
7. Shaman Ghost. J Jerkins. (20-1)
8. Semper Fortis. D O’Neill. (50-1)
9. Keen Ice. T Pletcher. (12-1)
10. Breaking Lucky. R Baker. (25-1)
11. Eragon. L. Wohlers (Edgar Prado up btw) (50-1)
12. California Chrome. A Sherman. (6-5)

My take: not so good for Chrome nor Arrogate

[SnicklefritzG]

I watched it live and was sooooooooo unhappy about this.

[Where_sMyWhite]

Glimmer et al… worse for Chrome or Arrogate do you think?

Me? I’m think while not good for either, worse for CC than for Arrogate.

The gate positions definitely up the ante for a correct ride by both jocks.

[SnicklefritzG]

This is about as bad as it gets. I seriously hope this is totally by chance.

[mommy_peanut]

I think it’s ok for CC. We know he has the speed to break & get out front of other horses & move over IF that’s what they choose to do. We also know he runs just fine off the pace, if he ends up breaking poorly.
I think Arrogate has the harder pp. If he doesn’t get a good break, chances of him getting shuffled or stuck behind a wall of horses is pretty good.
I think it’ll come down to the break & jockey tactics.
Hope they all come home safe.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Where’sMyWhite;9020933]
Glimmer et al… worse for Chrome or Arrogate do you think?

Me? I’m think while not good for either, worse for CC than for Arrogate[/QUOTE]

If you go by statistics: only one horse has won from post 12 at GP going 9f (out of 18 occurrences) since the rebuild reopening in 2006. That was Big Brown in the 2008 Florida Derby.

I certainly think CC is head and shoulders better than BB. However if its an off track? All bets would be off.

The morning line, by the way, was determined before the position draw.

[Where_sMyWhite]

I’m leaning also toward thinking Arrogate is hurt less by PP1 than CC by PP12. While CC might be tactical, PP9 and out have not won (as I think I recall TVG saying today) for 1 1/8 races at Gulfstream this season. The short run to the clubhouse turn might be a challenge.

[Where_sMyWhite]

PS - however, if any horse can overcome PP12, it would be CC but will require a good ride from Victor to accomplish it.

[mommy_peanut]

Other than CC or Arrogate(depending on how they break) which horses are most likely to try for the lead?
Which are most likely to lay back & may a late run?
I think that may either help or possibly hamper CC getting a good position around the first turn.

[snaffle1987]

it’ll be just fine for CC. he does best on the outside, sitting slightly off the pace so it will work out perfect. no bumping or getting squished. He’s quick from the great too and a great starter so the outside post is really NBD for him. It may look bad for any other horse but for CC; I don’t think it could’ve worked out any better.

I think the inside post for arrogate may be troublesome. He likes to be off the pace, stalking. I think he will get a lot of pressure here and if he doesn’t go for the lead; he may get stuck in a lot of traffic turning for home.

[Shammy_Davis]

https://www.americasbestracing.net/the-sport/2017-pegasus-world-cup-cheat-sheet

[Where_sMyWhite]

snaffle1987, I would agree except for the short run up from the gate to the club house turn (Gulfstream’s dirt track is 9f).

That short run up might shuffle CC further off the pace than he’d prefer and hard, IMO, to get out fast enough to cross over the whole field before the turn.

Saturday we’ll see

[findeight]

You know, the Stonach Group and Churchill/Twin Spires squabble has both sides shooting themselves in the foot building (or failing to) a big following for this race.

Usually big name, marquee races that attract casual fans and bettors get considerable media attention via ads by participating simulcast tracks. They pair them with luncheons, “private boxes” ( table with a TV and cocktail waitress) and food/ beverage discounts to turn it into an entertaining day at the track/racino.

I was expecting to see that at our local tracks who advertise these things well in advance to lure those more casual fans and their dollars. Little “match race of the century” with pictures of these spectacular looking horses, The “Chrome’s last race” angle would have would have created interest even in non bettors seeing those ads.

As it is, the casual fan barely knows this race exsists. NBC isn’t doing much to promote it’s telecast. Been all over the country in the last few weeks, seen nothing anywhere. Not saying they aren’t running anything but sure haven’t seen a thing in syndicated daytime programming or regular broadcast programming as I have seen with Derby, Breeders Cup etc.

Perhaps they’ll settle at the last minute, perhaps not, but its a missed opportunity to promote the sport to those outside the industry via this race that was devised to promote the sport to those who don’t read the DRF daily.

[SnicklefritzG]

I’ve seen comments about the Pegasus on Facebook, but that’s about it. Nowhere else, except perhaps here and some of the racing websites I go to. Nothing in the mainstream media.

[Glimmerglass]

From what I’ve seen on the Pegasus (in large part) the argument has been that the tickets are sold out, NBC will air it, they have racing press coverage and FL press so what else do they need to do.

Agreed its an opportunity - especially with it being CC’s last run and the world’s largest purse - to go into hyper promotion, but with it being days away that won’t happen. To be fair, the public has been transfixed on politics and the SuperBowl looms large. Hard to get a lot of attention on a horse race.

More Stats with the track, surface, distance.

Regarding the success by post-position since the Gulfstream track was reconfigured (Jan 2016) for races at the distance (1-1/8 mi) on dirt.

Period of measurement is Jan 1, 2006 - Jan 23, 2017
PP. (Wins - Starts). %

1. (48-292). 16%
2. (38-292). 13%
3. (54-292). 18%
4. (41-292). 14%
5. (35-288). 12%
6. (30-271). 11%
7. (23-216). 11%
8. (13-161). 08%
9. (03-100). 03%
10. (04-063). 06%
11. (02-036). 06%
12. (01-018). 06%
13. (00-003). 00%
14. (00-003). 00%

[findeight]

But Gg, the inauguration is over and no football this weekend. Would have thought this a perfect spot to market the sport to the unwashed masses bored with winter…and some who could afford to get involved on the ownership side if suitably inspired. Guess not.

[gumtree]

More on television coverage, rights and revenues:

There=s no revenue this year [from NBC] to shareholders. We’re
hoping that by having good ratings, next year networks will bid
on it and we’ll be able to get more revenue.

We know that, right now, the industry pays for three races: the
Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont. What we would
like to do is get into that mix so that there’s a little bit of a
bidding war and they think that it’s worth covering and that they
can sell [advertising] spots and everything else. Hopefully, in
future years… one of these networks will be able to pay, and that
money will be divided up equally between the partners…

Actually, we had to pay NBC [for coverage this year]. The
Stronach Group put the commitment on itself to take the hit this
year and pay for the coverage. Belinda thought it was worth it in
the long run to try to have a bigger reach.

The above is from todays TDN. For those that don’t get/read the TDN this is a link to a bit of background information on the race and its connections.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/ritvo-discusses-pegasus-planning-expectations/

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/taking-flight-three-stakeholder-angles-in-the-pegasus/

[Shammy_Davis]

I agree the public attention is not on PWC. Don’t know about politics being the culprit, but the sport world is busy. NFL Pro-bowl this weekend in FL, college basketball, PGA tour, LPGA Tour, NBA basketball, etc definitely keeps the sport fan’s attention divided. PWC replaced the Donn Handicap and it has been some years, probably decades, that it was an exciting topic of discussion. Also tough timing with all the derby preps lining up. Almost 500 Triple Crown nominations now. Hard to get one’s arms wrapped around this. If not for Chrome, this would be another Donn, but exclusively for the rich and famous. Wonder if Churchill is worried that GP will have a “hat” walk and that is the reason they are not being cooperative.

Here is an historical perspective on how we got here.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/placing-the-pegasus-the-historical-perspective-at-gulfstream-park/